Why did Juan strengthen to 105 mph?

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Stormsfury
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Why did Juan strengthen to 105 mph?

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:00 pm

It took advantage of everything it had going for it.

Good upper environment, warm SST's, and encountered an area of the ATL with high HHP's.

http://grads.iges.org/pix/atlpot.gif
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html
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#2 Postby CocoaBill » Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:03 pm

wht is HHP? if i may be ignorant please? :D
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:08 pm

CocoaBill wrote:wht is HHP? if i may be ignorant please? :D


Hurricane Heat Potential

Notice the depth of the warmer SST's.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/d ... 9atd26.png

Juan crossed an area of SST's of 26ºC that extend well over 200m deep, which is more than enough stored energy to sustain a TC. But that's only part of the story.

SF
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#4 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 27, 2003 7:03 pm

This intensification to 105 mph took me totally by surprise. I never expected more than a minimal hurricane. It will be interesting to see if it crosses the treshold to major status, if only briefly.

My my...what a season!
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#5 Postby AussieMark » Sat Sep 27, 2003 7:08 pm

this reminds me of Karl in 1998 but slightly more west than Karl turned into category 2.
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#6 Postby BEER980 » Sat Sep 27, 2003 7:20 pm

Yea if I remember correctly one of the first intensity forecasts for Juan was a max of 60 or 65 kts before inland. I guess they forgot to tell juan about that.
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#7 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Sep 27, 2003 7:52 pm

I do not think anyone really thought we would see 105, as BEER890 stated, I remember 65kts predicted.
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