ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Panfan1995]

https://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2016/h ... -450px.jpg. Raleigh in trouble. High success rate ensemble notes

[floridasun78]

have heard if guys and ladys from weather channel coming too? Jim Cantore come miami beach that mean he expect see hurr wind here

[Evil Jeremy]

Sounds like the 5am track is coming west.

Slow down. Lets see the other important models first.

[AdamFirst]

if you are in a hurricane watch tomorrow you better get ready tomorrow for 100+ winds especially if you are north of palm beach..good luck to whoever gets in the core because its going to be a big deal

Im in southern martin county. Im wondering when the weather will initially start to turn. My local forecast has TS conditions starting thursday but I'm not sure if the rain and gusts will start sometime wed?

If tracks were to verify, TS conditions are anticipated Thursday morning along the Treasure Coast. It may get breezy late in the day on Wednesday and fringe bands may start filtering in from the south.

[AutoPenalti]

Would not be surprised of more west shifts.

[eastcoastFL]

Do you expect evac for treasure coast east of US 1?

http://slc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Viewer/ ... fe68937f1f

Here is a handy dandy map for St. Lucie County

Check Indian River & Martin EOC for their own maps

Very helpful! Thank you. Looks like east of US 1 in St. Lucie is not an Evac zone unless you're on the island. Good to know.

[sponger]

Sounds like the 5am track is coming west.

Slow down. Lets see the other important models first.

How many more do you need?

[GeneratorPower]

There is a big nuclear power plant in Juno Beach which I think is St Lucie County. Right on the ocean. I'm sure they are well hardened against hurricanes but it always makes me nervous.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say this but no one wants to see a sub 930 hurricane go into the kennedy space center or anywhere for that matter

I mean I lived in that area for more than 20 years. went through Erin, FLoyd.. etc.. a lot of issues not a lot of landfalls in the area.

[Evil Jeremy]

Sounds like the 5am track is coming west.

Slow down. Lets see the other important models first.

How many more do you need?

Well making a change to the track based on the GFS without waiting to see the UKMET, ECMWF, and ensembles to come in is a bit irresponsible.

[AutoPenalti]

CMC, considered one of the eastern outliers, shifted west.

[ozonepete]

Sounds like the 5am track is coming west.

Slow down. Lets see the other important models first.

Really! Make prudent preparations but no one should be assuming results that the NHC has not forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

if you are in a hurricane watch tomorrow you better get ready tomorrow for 100+ winds especially if you are north of palm beach..good luck to whoever gets in the core because its going to be a big deal

Im in southern martin county. Im wondering when the weather will initially start to turn. My local forecast has TS conditions starting thursday but I'm not sure if the rain and gusts will start sometime wed?

If tracks were to verify, TS conditions are anticipated Thursday morning along the Treasure Coast. It may get breezy late in the day on Wednesday and fringe bands may start filtering in from the south.

That sounds about right. It would be smart to hit the stores early tomorrow if folks aren't stocked up already on food water and batteries.

Shutters should go up by Wednesday morning at the latest.

I hate putting up shutters!

[sponger]

Slow down. Lets see the other important models first.

How many more do you need?

Well making a change to the track based on the GFS without waiting to see the UKMET, ECMWF, and ensembles to come in is a bit irresponsible.

Ridging is ridging. Its not going away. Euro or not, the East Coast is under the gun.

[eastcoastFL]

There is a big nuclear power plant in Juno Beach which I think is St Lucie County. Right on the ocean. I'm sure they are well hardened against hurricanes but it always makes me nervous.

Juno is in Palm Beach County. The plant you are talking about is closer to fort pierce in St. lucie County. Its right on the Island. Like you said im sure they are more than ready but it can sure make people uncomfortable.

[Alyono]

This is the exact opposite of Joaquin. Last year, it looked for several days that Joaquin would hit the East Coast. It wasn't until 12 hours before a Hurricane Watch was needed that it became clear that it would miss.

This time, a miss was the most likely scenario. 12 hours before a watch would be needed, it became clear that it would likely hit the coast

[sponger]

UK MET nails Smyrna.

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like they are forecasting some slowing for this storm. My local forecast a few hours ago had TS cond starting thursday morning. Now they start thursday night and following with Hurricane conditions thru Saturday.





Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.


Friday
Hurricane conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87.


Friday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Saturday
Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

[eastcoastFL]

This is the exact opposite of Joaquin. Last year, it looked for several days that Joaquin would hit the East Coast. It wasn't until 12 hours before a Hurricane Watch was needed that it became clear that it would miss.

This time, a miss was the most likely scenario. 12 hours before a watch would be needed, it became clear that it would likely hit the coast

So are you saying watches shouldn't go up until its clearer that the storm will make landfall? With a storm this size wouldn't it warrant watches even if it were 100 miles off the coast?

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is a big nuclear power plant in Juno Beach which I think is St Lucie County. Right on the ocean. I'm sure they are well hardened against hurricanes but it always makes me nervous.

It's on Hutchinson Island in St Lucie county. Juno is Palm Beach County.