ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WHYB630]

Trough + Matt -> lot of rainfall

[floridasun78]

starting look dade county likely will get outer eye wall of hurr if models keep moving toward se fl and east coast fl so like we get hurr watch i saw all models run one coming out now their show closer to south fl

[drezee]

The surface reflection can lie on the GFS but the 500 mb will tell no lies...the ridge is stronger...unfortunately W

Per the 500 mb, the storm should have been even a bit farther W by my view. Maybe 10-15 miles...this is not a good scenario for the US

[northjaxpro]

Well, Matthew is literally just about at the coast just east of Jacksonville Beach at 90 hours with the eyewall within 50-70 miles of the coast..

I'm hitting up Publix to stock up in the morning... before the rush.

Yes indeed. This is the real deal folks. WOW!!

[WeatherEmperor]

CMC has made another massive west shift

Whats ur gut say about the Ukmet?


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[Alyono]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2016 0 16.6N 74.8W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 12 18.2N 74.1W 978 66
0000UTC 05.10.2016 24 20.0N 73.9W 977 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 36 21.7N 74.7W 982 61
0000UTC 06.10.2016 48 23.2N 76.0W 980 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 60 24.9N 77.7W 974 62
0000UTC 07.10.2016 72 26.7N 79.7W 969 67
1200UTC 07.10.2016 84 28.9N 80.9W 963 71
0000UTC 08.10.2016 96 31.5N 81.3W 967 61
1200UTC 08.10.2016 108 33.9N 80.2W 981 47
0000UTC 09.10.2016 120 37.3N 76.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.10.2016 132 41.7N 72.0W 989 48
0000UTC 10.10.2016 144 46.0N 66.3W 976 47

[HurricaneFrances04]

Just looking at the coordinates, the UKMET looks about the same.

[MississippiWx]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2016 0 16.6N 74.8W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 12 18.2N 74.1W 978 66
0000UTC 05.10.2016 24 20.0N 73.9W 977 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 36 21.7N 74.7W 982 61
0000UTC 06.10.2016 48 23.2N 76.0W 980 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 60 24.9N 77.7W 974 62
0000UTC 07.10.2016 72 26.7N 79.7W 969 67
1200UTC 07.10.2016 84 28.9N 80.9W 963 71
0000UTC 08.10.2016 96 31.5N 81.3W 967 61
1200UTC 08.10.2016 108 33.9N 80.2W 981 47
0000UTC 09.10.2016 120 37.3N 76.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.10.2016 132 41.7N 72.0W 989 48
0000UTC 10.10.2016 144 46.0N 66.3W 976 47

Land.

UKMET has done well with Matthew. Has been west for days. Looks like it might win out this time.

[Lifeless]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2016 0 16.6N 74.8W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 12 18.2N 74.1W 978 66
0000UTC 05.10.2016 24 20.0N 73.9W 977 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 36 21.7N 74.7W 982 61
0000UTC 06.10.2016 48 23.2N 76.0W 980 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 60 24.9N 77.7W 974 62
0000UTC 07.10.2016 72 26.7N 79.7W 969 67
1200UTC 07.10.2016 84 28.9N 80.9W 963 71
0000UTC 08.10.2016 96 31.5N 81.3W 967 61
1200UTC 08.10.2016 108 33.9N 80.2W 981 47
0000UTC 09.10.2016 120 37.3N 76.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.10.2016 132 41.7N 72.0W 989 48
0000UTC 10.10.2016 144 46.0N 66.3W 976 47

Above visualised

[drezee]

Just looking at the coordinates, the UKMET looks about the same.

The UKMET is basically what the GFS 500mb shows

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Spag ENS

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Hard to tell from the chart of the UK Met, does that show the storm making land fall on Florida's east coast?

[fci]

Just looking at the coordinates, the UKMET looks about the same.

Closer to the coast than the NHC track which had closest point 90 miles away and the UKMET is 30 miles from me.

[Steve]

That UK Met run is a beast. If it's sub 950, that's bad all the way up the coast.

[GeneratorPower]

If the shifting doesn't stop soon it's going to make things worse for preparedness. Nothing is more stressful than group A thinking it's coming then the danger shifts more to group B.

[Lifeless]

Hard to tell from the chart of the UK Met, does that show the storm making land fall on Florida's east coast?

It indeed does, right at about Cape Canaveral

[Special K]

Yes right at Palm Beach.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hard to tell from the chart of the UK Met, does that show the storm making land fall on Florida's east coast?

Yes it makes landfall in Central Florida


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[SouthFLTropics]

Hard to tell from the chart of the UK Met, does that show the storm making land fall on Florida's east coast?

It indeed does, right at about Cape Canaveral

Close enough to the coast that it wouldn't make a difference whether it made landfall or not. Hurricane impacts from Palm Beach County northward.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know it's a big "if", since models and setups can still change somewhat, but IF the storm follows close to what the GFS is suggesting, and close to the same intensity, this is going to be a horrible storms that is going to be talked about for decades. It's quite rare you see a track like that. Not going to stay up for the EURO tonight, but I'm tempted to keep my IPhone next to my bed.