ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Brent]

[SFLcane]

Track shift northward..still no watches or warnings.

[TheHook210]

Another slight nudge west on the 5AM track. Boy am I glad I bought plywood last night. That looks ominous for Cape Canaveral.

[jlauderdal]

they want one more run of the gfs...there is a huge difference in terms of tropical vs hurricane in terms of evacs for keys and into miami...i suspect tropical storm watches/warnings upper keys all they to at least deerfield beach..they are cutting it close but they hoist hurricane watches/warnings the monetary expense skyrockets..lets see how the handle it

[TheStormExpert]

The 5am track shifted east over Grand Bahama Island a little.

[jlauderdal]

Remember the multiple ALL CLEAR calls for FL three and four days ago?

How ridiculous was that from some people. I was among the ones constantly reminding everyone about too many uncertainties in the forecasts. Now look at what is happening now.

yesterday the track was 240m east of sofla and then it was cut in half...incredible how people forget the error rate...no watches or warnings and surely people will be focussing on the line..problem is this is a major so effects will be intense even on the west side and its so close 4 hours of wobble as its coming in and its onshore..lets see what the gfs does shortly

[jlauderdal]

The 5am track shifted east over Grand Bahama Island a little.

not sure why you think it went east


Most of the
dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida
and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC
track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted
slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus
of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact
forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous
storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.

[mrbagyo]

Matthew is trying to clear his eye one last time before slamming into Haiti.
It has gotten more defined in the latest IR imagery.

[OuterBanker]

Some mornings it really doesn't pay to get up. Darn if the NHC put a H right on top of my house and business at the 5am advisory. And to add insult to injury it's in the middle of the night.

[ObsessedMiami]

FWIW, my point forecast from NWS Miami for West Kendall is now showing hurricane conditions possible for Thursday, an upgrade from TS conditions forecast yesterday.

[NC George]

Track shift northward..still no watches or warnings.

Still a little early timing wise. The official timeline is to wait until the conditions are expected within 48 hours to issue watches (36 for warnings.) I would expect the watches in the US to start at 11 or 5 today. Areas that need more lead time to evacuate are monitoring the official track. For instance Ocracoke Island in NC will issue evacuation notices before the TS watches go up because it's only accessible by ferry.

[marionstorm]

Near Ocala and worried about the updated track. Will the weaker side be enough to keep us from getting tropical storm force winds? Frances and Jeanne gave us tropical storm winds/gusts but we were on the right side of those storms.

[GCANE]

[CDO62]

Near Ocala and worried about the updated track. Will the weaker side be enough to keep us from getting tropical storm force winds? Frances and Jeanne gave us tropical storm winds/gusts but we were on the right side of those storms.

[GCANE]

[Blinhart]

Really think they need to change the time requirements to like 48 hours for warnings and 72 hours for watches. Some areas like Miami you need to have a lot of lead way to get out with all the traffic, also all the cruise lines have to figure everything out. A lot of other cities need a lot of lead time because of the way the highways get backed up.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Eye clearing out and outflow becoming more symmetrical as we approach landfall. What a nightmare for Haiti..

[Blinhart]

So they aren't expecting it to be away from Jacksonville until Saturday or Sunday. Wow if that pans out this storm could explode with all the hot water and really no major land interaction to mess with it.

[GCANE]

Blob is still hanging east of Matthew and now crossing east end of the DR.

Here is the last AMSU Sounder Analysis showing Matthew's Warm Core and the persistant Cold Core anomaly that is alway located mid-point between Matthew and the Blob

[ObsessedMiami]

Does NHC issue watches and warnings at intermediate advisories? Or only at the "main" ones?