ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

This has literally been invisible...but could be very important. A stronger Nicole might just disrupt the ridge...

[wxmann_91]

70-70 now... high chance of development next 48 hr.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure area located about 400 miles north-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. Recent satellite data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and the low does not have a well-defined
center. However, only a slight increase in organization of this
system would result in the formation of a tropical depression during
the next day or two before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development. This system is expected to move generally
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[northjaxpro]

Oh yeah, can"t forget about soon to be Nicole, which has been totally lost in Matthew's huge shadow over her.

I do not believe Invest 98L or future Nicole will get strong enough to weaken the ridge steering Matthew.to Florida and the SE U.S. coast

[kala]

Hmmm... Will we have TD 15 at 09 or 15z?

Edit: correct link didn't copy last night (was automatically updating, not imgur)

[Blinhart]

Hmmm... Will we have TD 15 at 09 or 15z?

neither, it's a naked swirl with all the CDO to the East, it would have to have convection completely around it and that ain't happening anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

Nicole very soon?

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure area located about 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.
Satellite wind data indicate that the low is producing winds to
gale force, and the system could become sufficiently well organized
to result in the formation of a tropical storm later today. The
low is expected to move generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the next few days, and upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[abajan]

[abajan]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

Hmmm... Will we have TD 15 at 09 or 15z?

neither, it's a naked swirl with all the CDO to the East, it would have to have convection completely around it and that ain't happening anytime soon.

Well, according to the latest TWO, this could become a tropical storm today.

[Hurricanehink]

It sure doesn't look like a naked swirl. The convection is sitting on the east side of the circulation, and given that it's producing winds of gale force, we'll probably see Nicole on the first advisory, either at 11 or at 5.

[kala]

Yeah, we've seen things named by NHC with worse convective coverage than this.

[SeGaBob]

Is Nicole

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 60.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 60.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 60.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.5N 61.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.8N 63.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.2N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.8N 64.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 60.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

...NEW TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 60.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 60.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward
the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the
northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some
banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the
circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now
well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this
system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is
near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer
data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger
shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to
commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the
LGEM guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. Over the next few days,
the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a
mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely
to begin meandering later in the forecast period. The official
forecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 26.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 28.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.9N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.8N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.5N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Evil Jeremy]

Good morning Nicole!

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, put me in the classify camp as well. I'm thinking it could be renumbered in ATCF as soon as 18Z.



*EDIT: or well, now.

[weathaguyry]

Wasn't expecting this...

[Vdogg]

According to the NHC Nicole is expected to weaken tomorrow due to high shear. Probably back to a depression by Thursday.

[JtSmarts]

Another name burned off the list: 14/5/2

[Macrocane]

Kudos to the CMC which was the first model to develop Nicole (it develops everything though )

[HurricaneRyan]

Nicole is gonna get sheared off by Matthew's outflow.

Would be funny if Nicole Mitchell was on a recon flight for it.

[sma10]

I'm going to predict that .... this thread will finish with fewer pages than Matthew.