ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

Do you have a time for those? Thx!

Miami mayor swid to prepare now, watches should be coming soon.
Gov Scott has not had his. TWC just stated his would be soon.

Rick Knabb said at 9:00 AM that watches/warnings would be issued at 11:00.

[Evil Jeremy]

When it comes to watches, here is how I would do it at 11 am:

Hurricane Watch - Card Sound Bridge to Fernandina Beach, including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Watch - South of Card Sound Bridge (i.e. Florida Keys), Florida Bay, west coast south of Yankeetown

(Will likely be extended farther north later)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I would be absolutely shocked to see a Hurricane Watch in Jacksonville this morning. Don't get me wrong, I'm expecting it, but tonight at the earliest. North Florida isn't even in the 3 day cone yet.

[lando]

anyone see the few GEFS models do a HUGE loop?

[AdamFirst]

When it comes to watches, here is how I would do it at 11 am:

Hurricane Watch - Card Sound Bridge to Fernandina Beach, including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Watch - South of Card Sound Bridge (i.e. Florida Keys), Florida Bay, west coast south of Yankeetown

(Will likely be extended farther north later)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I'd put a TS Watch from Key Largo to Deerfield Beach, Hurricane Watch from Deerfield to Flagler, TS Watch from Flagler to Ferdnandina

[AutoPenalti]

I think people are REALLY underestimating how large this system is.

[eastcoastFL]

The gas lines are already insane in palm beach garden's.

[artist]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

For all the "all clear" folks in Florida, this should tell you a lot. As was mentioned, the center line only tracks the eye of the storm but the effects of the storm can be felt miles upon miles east and west of the center. Only put your guard down when the storm is north of you.

There's no harm in hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. At the least you'll get to test out your storm preparedness process.

Exactly right. Our first, Frances, we were not nearly prepared for, and we were prepared with Jeanne which hit shortly after Frances. I cannot emphasize enough you do NOT want to get caught with your pants down. We were on the south end as it came across the coast line for both and it was not fun, and winds were only cat 1 strength. We did experience a mini vortex with one of them, which is common with hurricanes, which can occur anywhere. It blew in pieces of cars, furniture, shoes, etc. Into our yard, which we have no idea where it all came from. Do not take this lightly, guys. This is supposed to be a major- not a cat 1.

[Mello1]

Ok, Thank you... I'm in Brevard County about 3 miles inland, watching this intently...

deciding today whether to go down to Vero Beach and board up my mom's house.

she lives 2 blocks from the ocean on the barrier island.

not liking the current position of closest approach as that may put the strongest winds directly over her.

If I were you I'd do it now, better yet bring her back with you. The track and strength of this storm is just too unpredictable.

I agree with this remark. Have to take into account traffic conditions and availability of gas. Better err on the side of caution in this case.

[artist]

Gov is down in Marathon, so that may be a hint.

When it comes to watches, here is how I would do it at 11 am:

Hurricane Watch - Card Sound Bridge to Fernandina Beach, including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Watch - South of Card Sound Bridge (i.e. Florida Keys), Florida Bay, west coast south of Yankeetown

(Will likely be extended farther north later)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I'd put a TS Watch from Key Largo to Deerfield Beach, Hurricane Watch from Deerfield to Flagler, TS Watch from Flagler to Ferdnandina

[Blown Away]

IMO, seeing just W of N now...

[KBBOCA]

Watching Mark Sudduth's latest update.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97PKLLzDz7M

Appreciate all his work, but think he's saying something very dangerous in an attempt to get people to not focus on the forecast points and to help people understand the cone. He basically said "you can think of it as any area in the cone might get impacts, the closer to "the dot" (the center) probably worse impacts"

WRONG!!!! The cone does not have anything to do with the windfield or rain rates or surge / tides. As the NHC displays on all the graphics, impacts can be felt outside the cone!!!

I know he knows this and that he's just trying to give people a general idea that ALL in the cone should prepare, but still, this oversimplification is quite dangerous.

[tgenius]

IMO, seeing just W of N now...

Deff looks like he took a wallop from Haiti coast... let's hope structure was disrupted enough to slow him down. :/

[SapphireSea]

Latest Vis and IR shows a bit of a NNW jog now. Have to see if it's a trend. Land friction likely. One thing about analyzing the WV is that there is an arctic UL high swinging down from the NE. This is what will feed into the existing Bermuda ridge and why models shift west despite a pretty impressive trough in the Midwest. Definitely to be watched Homestead up to OBX.

Speed will be a factor. Faster means land slower means OTS.

[Alyono]

the LLC may be having trouble crossing the mountains. Seems like it is getting hung up

[Aric Dunn]

bounced around the peninsula a little bit.. emerging back over water now. next 12 hours are key

[sponger]

Hit Walmart this morning and it was dead. 275 bucks worth of snacks and batteries and beer, I am good to go. Never underestimate snacks as comfort food when the power is out. All stuff I will use anyway! Still have batteries in stock, but you could tell they were raided pretty good last night. If it misses Jacksonville, you can all thank me for over preparing. Next stop, one more propane tank and gas for the generator. Done, with over 2 days to spare!

[Aric Dunn]

can be seen here emerging back over water a little left of landfall

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[GCANE]

Perfect Upper-Level Conditions for Reintensification.

[Aric Dunn]

Perfect Upper-Level Conditions for Reintensification.

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/1jqer6.gif[/ig]

[img]http://i65.tinypic.com/2afg29e.png[/mg]

Thats what you call creating its own environment.

[artist]

I saw that and was shocked, hearing it come from him. I respect him, but that was not explained properly at all. I turned it off.

Watching Mark Sudduth's latest update.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97PKLLzDz7M

Appreciate all his work, but think he's saying something very dangerous in an attempt to get people to not focus on the forecast points and to help people understand the cone. He basically said "you can think of it as any area in the cone might get impacts, the closer to "the dot" (the center) probably worse impacts"

WRONG!!!! The cone does not have anything to do with the windfield or rain rates or surge / tides. As the NHC displays on all the graphics, impacts can be felt outside the cone!!!

I know he knows this and that he's just trying to give people a general idea that ALL in the cone should prepare, but still, this oversimplification is quite dangerous.