ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Mouton]

Probably because some of the models like the NAM are east now and also because of the formation of Nicole and her possible influence on the weakening of the ridge a bit. Gotta wait for the next model runs.

I don't think the NHC has the luxery of waiting for the next model. 11AM is an important time....putting up warnings at 5PM is late in the day and 11PM would be ridicules.

While I think with my untrained eye the center stays on 80w I am not betting my life on it....we vacate as soon as anyone says it is required or suggested.

[Soonercane]

Probably because some of the models like the NAM are east now and also because of the formation of Nicole and her possible influence on the weakening of the ridge a bit. Gotta wait for the next model rums.

The NAM for one, I think today the much awaited east trend arrives and emergency managers along the East Coast breathe a sigh of relief.

The NAM is not a tropical model. In fact it's one of the worst models for the tropics. Don't use it for tracking storms, just for looking at the upper air environment.

We were bringing it up in terms of weakening the ridge...

[WeatherEmperor]

Nam is worthless for tropical cyclone forecasting. Any decent pro met will tell you that. Even if it shows weaker ridging whatever Matthews track and intensity should be left to global models...and I have yet to see any of them make major shifts east. Lets wait for the 12z runs before making any definitive conclusions


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[GCANE]

This animation of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery from Oct. 2 to Oct. 4, 2016, shows Hurricane Matthew moving through the Caribbean Sea and making landfall on Oct. 4 over western Haiti.



Link: https://youtu.be/xjYnU0TOoQc

[Sanibel]

Had to have given Haiti a pretty good hit.

[stormreader]

I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...

Completely agree... I think we have seen the most west the models will go. Also thinking Matthew will be less "scary" for northern Florida through the Carolina's as far as strength goes. But still a major situation not to be taken lightly.

We are within the time frame now when models are much more accurate. The reason that models were east in the first place was underestimation of the ridge and phantom weaknesses that the models picked up on which never materialized. People, this is it. The storm will track very close to its current projection. It may even track a tad further west. Talk of shifting back east is almost akin to dreaming or denial. People in the forecast path need to stop speculating and make preparattions for a landfalling major hurricane. They need to be thinking about supplies, if they are going to evacuate, prescription meds,ect...

[Hamanard]

I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...

Haven't you've been saying this for a week now? Latest EPS members and high probability clusters suggests otherwise, and so did the NAM that just finished a few minutes ago.

[lando]

nicole forms

[DelrayMorris]

I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...

Completely agree... I think we have seen the most west the models will go. Also thinking Matthew will be less "scary" for northern Florida through the Carolina's as far as strength goes. But still a major situation not to be taken lightly.

We are within the time frame now when models are much more accurate. The reason that models were east in the first place was underestimation of the ridge and phantom weaknesses that the models picked up on which never materialized. People, this is it. The storm will track very close to its current projection. It may even track a tad further west. Talk of shifting back east is almost akin to dreaming or denial. People in the forecast path need to stop speculating and make preparattions for a landfalling major hurricane. They need to be thinking about supplies, if they are going to evacuate, prescription meds,ect...

^^This

[northjaxpro]

Nam is worthless for tropical cyclone forecasting. Any decent pro met will tell you that. Even if it shows weaker ridging whatever Matthews track and intensity should be left to global models...and I have yet to see any of them make major shifts east. Lets wait for the 12z runs before making any definitive conclusions


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Amen!!

[SeGaBob]

I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...

Haven't you've been saying this for a week now? Latest EPS members and high probability clusters suggests otherwise, and so did the NAM that just finished a few minutes ago.

Yes, I have already admitted I was wrong in the past. But still my opinion nonetheless...

[baitism]

Matthew already starting to ramp back up on the visible.

[AdamFirst]

Nicole has formed - it gets trapped by the ridge and meanders for 5 days. Doubt this breaks it down for Matthew.

[Sanibel]

Will a favorable upper help Matthew pump the ridge?

[Evil Jeremy]

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH...FLORIDA TO
THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE

[Michele B]

So TS Nicole is officially a thing now btw.

And apparently "running interference" somewhat for Matt.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro says that Nicole will have almost no influence in eroding the ridge.

[caneseddy]

Hurricane watch from Deerfield Beach to Brevard/Volusia county line

Tropical Storm Watch from Deerfield Beach south to Seven Mile Bridge including Lake Okeechobee

[AdamFirst]

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH...FLORIDA TO
THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE

Called it - sort of. I got the Hurricane Watch up to Flagler.

[Evil Jeremy]

New advisory predicts a landfall in the Carolinas.