ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

still 145

[marionstorm]

They kept the winds at 145mph.. are they being cautious/overly generous?

[northjaxpro]

Will a favorable upper help Matthew pump the ridge?

Yes. The ridge can get pumped with oceanic heat content and very good upper air flow pattern aloft. I have seen this phenomenon in very intense and large tropical cyclones as the ridge can expand with the cyclone. It almost as if the cyclone is creating its own environment.

[AutoPenalti]

Will a favorable upper help Matthew pump the ridge?

Yes. The ridge can get pump the ridge steering the cyclone. I have seen this phenomenon in very intense and large tropical cyclones as the ridge can expand with the cyclone poleward outflow.

Especially with it riding the ridge, NHC has moved north with the forecast.

[Blown Away]

11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 4
Location: 18.9°N 74.3°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Was 74.2 at 8am... So slight W movement, maybe, still N...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/yamelgarcia1/status/783321727195459584

[mitchell]

wow...11 a.m. update seems to increase emphasis/likelihood of a Carolina Landfall and inland track in the mid atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

[1900hurricane]

As to be expected, the eye has shrunken quite a bit after landfall. The newest VDM indicates the eye is now 12 nm in diameter, down from 28 nm from the first VDM.

[TheStormExpert]

Not mention the track shifted further East over Grand Bahama Island @11am.

[tolakram]

saved image of the advisory

[Aric Dunn]

this is why its still 145mph.

127kt from dropsonde
so very little weakening should bounce back quick.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I am thinking that Nicole is what the models have been sniffing to keep Matthew off of the Florida coast all along. While she isn't going to be strong enough to erode the ridge to the point Matthew recurves, I think she is strong enough to be what causes Matthew to visit my house in Southport, NC. This is probably what everyone was missing when talking about a Florida landfall.

[psyclone]

You can see that the wind probs decreased a bit for Florida with the slight eastward shift...but look at the escalation for the Carolina coast ...scary times ahead

[ronyan]

NHC now forecasting landfall of a borderline cat 2/3 storm near the SC/NC border. The 105 mph point is inland and the previous point is at 125 mph.

[toad strangler]

Not mention the track shifted further East over Grand Bahama Island @11am.

Yes, cone shifted E slightly. I imagine the NHC is not favoring a FL and inland hit but rather a coastal runner that could wobble onshore if close enough as it moves NW initially. ..

[Sanibel]

We might be OK here on the west coast of Florida now...Unless the ridge unexpectedly strengthens and shifts...

[chris_fit]

Anyone else find Avila's discussions leaving you wanting more

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtu.be/TkVC7nI8lAI

[ronyan]

this is why its still 145mph.

127kt from dropsonde
so very little weakening should bounce back quick.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... 4-1435.png

It may have been stronger than 145 mph at landfall then.

[Soonercane]

I am thinking that Nicole is what the models have been sniffing to keep Matthew off of the Florida coast all along. While she isn't going to be strong enough to erode the ridge to the point Matthew recurves, I think she is strong enough to be what causes Matthew to visit my house in Southport, NC. This is probably what everyone was missing when talking about a Florida landfall.

Definitely could track up there, but as others have pointed out it may be a shell of its current self by the time it gets up there.