ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Nicole's not breaking down a dang thing, lol.
"The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the
circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger
shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the LGEM guidance."
From NHC Nicole discussion. They seem to not expect Nicole to be a factor after tomorrow. People expecting Nicole to break down the ridge should not be letting their guard down.
"The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the
circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger
shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the LGEM guidance."
From NHC Nicole discussion. They seem to not expect Nicole to be a factor after tomorrow. People expecting Nicole to break down the ridge should not be letting their guard down.
Last edited by Vdogg on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
1900hurricane wrote:As to be expected, the eye has shrunken quite a bit after landfall. The newest VDM indicates the eye is now 12 nm in diameter, down from 28 nm from the first VDM.
What causes the eye to shrink? Will it expand back as it restrengthens? Unfortunately the mountains didn't weaken it much and with it barely grazing Cuba it likely won't weaken much then either.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Never bet against my swollen leg. When it's in pain there's a storm coming. At 5 pm the track was about 65 miles away form the fl coast. As of 11 am it's 85 miles. They expect a 1 more east shift.
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- CalmBeforeStorm
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
The Euro will be the key. It's been steadily moving west along with the ensembles and the cluster. The GFS did move slightly east but the Euro has been doing the better job with this storm.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I am thinking that Nicole is what the models have been sniffing to keep Matthew off of the Florida coast all along. While she isn't going to be strong enough to erode the ridge to the point Matthew recurves, I think she is strong enough to be what causes Matthew to visit my house in Southport, NC. This is probably what everyone was missing when talking about a Florida landfall.
That's very possible. some sleepless nights for you guys for sure.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
psyclone wrote:You can see that the wind probs decreased a bit for Florida with the slight eastward shift...but look at the escalation for the Carolina coast...scary times ahead
A little but not by much. Still a high chance just off shore and they haven't gone down much near Jax.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Could be the start of a trend IMO...
Last edited by SeGaBob on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
chris_fit wrote:Anyone else find Avila's discussions leaving you wanting more
Mr. Avila is terse but he is very good.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
JaxGator wrote:psyclone wrote:You can see that the wind probs decreased a bit for Florida with the slight eastward shift...but look at the escalation for the Carolina coast...scary times ahead
A little but not by much. Still a high chance just off shore and they haven't gone down much near Jax.
The gradient (as it often is) is very tight so slight shifts can = big changes. Just something to watch. I guess the takeaway is...it didn't get worse for FL with this advisory..it actually got a tad better. nevertheless the threat is legit, the watches are warranted and I expect northward extensions over time.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
If anyone reddits, I know some of you were mentioning chatting - there's a good sub called /r/tropicalweather with a packed chat right now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
stormreader wrote:otterlyspicey wrote:SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...
Completely agree... I think we have seen the most west the models will go. Also thinking Matthew will be less "scary" for northern Florida through the Carolina's as far as strength goes. But still a major situation not to be taken lightly.
We are within the time frame now when models are much more accurate. The reason that models were east in the first place was underestimation of the ridge and phantom weaknesses that the models picked up on which never materialized. People, this is it. The storm will track very close to its current projection. It may even track a tad further west. Talk of shifting back east is almost akin to dreaming or denial. People in the forecast path need to stop speculating and make preparattions for a landfalling major hurricane. They need to be thinking about supplies, if they are going to evacuate, prescription meds,ect...
Say what you wish about dreaming, however there IS a large difference between a hurricane being 50-80 miles off shore verses perhaps 10-20 miles. Latest NHC official track no longer has Matthew reaching 80W closer to Jupiter, but further north where also at a latitude which would be further off shore the St. Augustine/New Smyrna area. 6Z model cluster does depict an eastward trend of models displayed and NAM mesoscale guidance DOES suggest the slightest new nuance between the building high pressure ridge to Matthew's north (and east) and the storm itself. Whether the 500mb flow just north of the storm from 36-60 hours is veered more southerly as a result of Matthew moving a bit faster north right now, an effect of Nicole slightly eroding the SW corner of the ridge, or simply because the ridge itself was a bit slower than progged to build west.... I am feeling fairly confident that we will soon see the GFS 12Z model bend at least slightly more east and north as a result. Furthermore, I anticipate the EURO also at least showing a far lessened threat to the Southern half of Florida, though I'm less sure about whether the ridge will build in fast enough to push Matthew to the N. Florida coastline. At this time though, i'm inclined to believe that Matthew will not actually make Florida landfall. All this said, that's not to suggest that small changes to storm speed, strength, or evolving synoptics couldn't change just a little bit more, but that is how I see this now playing out.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
chris_fit wrote:Anyone else find Avila's discussions leaving you wanting more
He is generally a bit more verbose but rather than having people hanging a hat on one or two words, he wrote what he wanted and left no specualtion avenues. I am sure there was much discussion between the center and state of Fla officials beyond what is written and the watches point to what was conveyed.
For now, it seems the 80W line will hold but cannot let guard down. New GFS begins in a few minutes. This one should be extremely important for those in mid to north Fla as well as points further north but beyond 72 hours impact for now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
ronyan wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:this is why its still 145mph.
127kt from dropsonde
so very little weakening should bounce back quick.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... 4-1435.png
It may have been stronger than 145 mph at landfall then.
I called it at the time. It looked like it was trying to rapidly strengthen again in the 2-3 hours before landfall, my educated but very unofficial guess is it was at 155, maybe even briefly 160 (maybe pushing it though).
Soonercane wrote:WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I am thinking that Nicole is what the models have been sniffing to keep Matthew off of the Florida coast all along. While she isn't going to be strong enough to erode the ridge to the point Matthew recurves, I think she is strong enough to be what causes Matthew to visit my house in Southport, NC. This is probably what everyone was missing when talking about a Florida landfall.
Definitely could track up there, but as others have pointed out it may be a shell of its current self by the time it gets up there.
I don't see anybody saying this. Please stop downplaying this storm.
Last edited by bob rulz on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like new cone shows impact for every East Coast State, from Florida, to eventually Maine
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
As for the people who think we are in the "clear" in SFL because of the cone.
"Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5."
"Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5."
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
lando wrote:anyone see the few GEFS models do a HUGE loop?
LOL. Everybody loves the Bahamas, even hurricanes.

Not funny, but damn. I either laugh or cry.
Don't know if this is on-topic but for those of you with 2-story houses, do you bother boarding up the second story windows as well? Got two big windows upstairs to my master bedroom and it would be a real hassle to have to board those up. But then again, it would be a bigger hassle to get them replaced and deal with the damage.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
txwatcher91 wrote:1900hurricane wrote:As to be expected, the eye has shrunken quite a bit after landfall. The newest VDM indicates the eye is now 12 nm in diameter, down from 28 nm from the first VDM.
What causes the eye to shrink? Will it expand back as it restrengthens? Unfortunately the mountains didn't weaken it much and with it barely grazing Cuba it likely won't weaken much then either.
Land friction. Friction deflects air parcels to the left of what is expected in an idealized gradient wind balance model, and more friction has greater effects. When a tropical cyclone moves over land (especially land as rough as Hispaniola), it transitions from moving over a low friction ocean surface to a much higher friction terrain, abruptly deflecting parcels left in the lower levels. It increases convergence, but also fills the pressure valley faster than it can be removed.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
The fact remains though, the projected proximity of Matthew to the Florida coastline is enough reason for all of those within 30 or so miles from the coast, to take all appropriate preparations now just in case a small deviation of track were to suddenly cause your life and property to be in jeopardy. The margin of error is very small here. Not preparing in the face of Hurricane Watches would not be responsible.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:The Euro will be the key. It's been steadily moving west along with the ensembles and the cluster. The GFS did move slightly east but the Euro has been doing the better job with this storm.
I have to disagree with this. Maybe in the Caribbean it did better but the GFS for days has had this right off the NC coast while the Euro was sending it to Bermuda. It's only figured it out in the past 1-2 days whereas the GFS was much more consistent with a NC impact.
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