ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[HurrMark]

Just a tick south of 06Z...technically that would make it *slightly* closer to the coast based on the N FL coastline shape. But pretty much holding pat.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

933mb

[xironman]

The southern stream low that comes through the Baja keeps getting stronger with the past couple of runs. If it could phase with the northern stream things might get interesting, but probably not in a Nina year.

[tolakram]

[NYR__1994]

Hellooooo Charleston!

[tolakram]

This run may be a miss or glancing blow.

[tolakram]

937mb was the last printed pressure on the full res.

[TheHook210]

Can some one please tell me why there is a huge gap between those two NHC forecast points near the coast? Is it a timing thing?

[xironman]

Hellooooo Charleston!

Myrtle is the one to worry about. I don't think that the possibility of a landfalling cat 3 has been effectively built into the development plans,

[chaser1]

Still pretty consistent with recent runs. Fortunately no indication yet of any increased westward trend, but just the idea that a powerful hurricane will be that close, is enough for everyone to remain very vigilant (and already be prepared for the worst if a sudden jog west occurred)

While it isn't technically a west trend it is indicative of stronger ridging and a slower storm which would put more of the East Coast of FL under the gun. I think the stronger ridging shown is the big thing to take from this run.

I generally agree and think this now becomes more a game of inches and hours. Couldn't agree more regarding Matthew's forward speed from here to whatever point that the increased ridging might impart a more NW motion. I think this now is the primary key.

[tolakram]

953mb

[ronyan]

Can some one please tell me why there is a huge gap between those two NHC forecast points near the coast? Is it a timing thing?

The storm is forecast to speed up but the points are the same time interval.

[tolakram]

Just misses the coast, but still what a horrible run for the SC and NC coastal areas.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 12z GFS stays just off the coast of the Carolinas

[HurrMark]

Yeah, it's all about speed. The slower it goes, the better the odds of just a glancing blow.

[Aric Dunn]

that trof is looking mighty weak... going to get left behind ?

[tolakram]

[shaneomac]

I believe if im not mistaken the piece of energy that is part of the puzzle for where Matthew tracks wont come onshore the pacific coast till late tonight ? , not sure if they sent out any baloons out for showing how strong/weak that trof out in the pacific would be .. Bermuda high seems to be weakening and thats why i think the models once making a close landfall in North Carolina it than tracks offshore than into Nova Scotia . its a pin prick between it coming up the coast to moving offshore into Nova Scotia .. I think we have one more day of model watching and i believe there will be some changes in track with the models (window wiper effect) ./. either way areas along Florida coast up to North Carolina need to be prepared for hurricane conditions and heed the warnings . take care !

[tolakram]