ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[HurrMark]

that trof is looking mighty weak... going to get left behind ?

Looks pretty strong...but unlike runs from yesterday no negative tilt. So technically no US landfall.

[Mouton]

Just a tick south of 06Z...technically that would make it *slightly* closer to the coast based on the N FL coastline shape. But pretty much holding pat.

I think both sides of the discussion regarding a north fla landfall held serve on this one. It looks now like it will come down to the last job being the decider. Looks like the 80W barely held but an expanding wind field may outrun the distance to 81.1 here.

[JPmia]

Hour 54 in this GFS run is concerning.. The ridging to the north is strong and any little pulse at that time could send this monster into FL. So close wow.

[ConvergenceZone]

Glad to see that it missed US landfall on this run. Hopefully this is the start of an OTS trend.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA with landfall in East-Central Florida:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12Z JMA with landfall in East-Central Florida:

This model really led the pack on west shift..need to pay attention to it more...I believe this is NASA?

[xironman]

Glad to see that it missed US landfall on this run. Hopefully this is the start of an OTS trend.

Actually verbatim it looks like it was super close to a Cape Fear landfall

[WPBWeather]

Glad to see that it missed US landfall on this run. Hopefully this is the start of an OTS trend.

If I can see it from my window, its a landfall to me!

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z JMA with landfall in East-Central Florida:

Thats a W shift from yesterday...This model usually is similar to EURO..Hope that is not the case in the 12Z.

[xironman]

12Z JMA with landfall in East-Central Florida:

This model really led the pack on west shift..need to pay attention to it more...I believe this is NASA?

Japan

[tolakram]

ECMWF run starts around 1:45pm EDT. If it's not a post about a model run or a question about an existing run please take it to the discussion thread. Thanks!

[WeatherEmperor]

Alyono...if you are here remember to post the Ukmet.


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[Alyono]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2016 0 18.2N 74.3W 974 61
0000UTC 05.10.2016 12 19.7N 73.8W 976 61
1200UTC 05.10.2016 24 21.5N 74.0W 982 63
0000UTC 06.10.2016 36 23.0N 75.5W 982 61
1200UTC 06.10.2016 48 24.4N 77.4W 979 58
0000UTC 07.10.2016 60 26.1N 79.2W 975 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 72 28.4N 80.7W 965 69
0000UTC 08.10.2016 84 30.8N 81.6W 966 64
1200UTC 08.10.2016 96 32.7N 81.5W 981 51
0000UTC 09.10.2016 108 33.2N 80.2W 997 37
1200UTC 09.10.2016 120 33.3N 78.3W 1003 41
0000UTC 10.10.2016 132 32.0N 76.6W 1007 46
1200UTC 10.10.2016 144 30.4N 76.4W 1008 40

[gatorcane]

The UKMET would bring worse conditions to Palm Beach County than the GFS is showing. Scary thing is that it has shown the exact same track very near Palm Beach for 3 runs in a row now..hope the Euro doesn't shift west.

[HurricaneFrances04]

UKMET is about 60 miles from West Palm Beach at that 60 hour point.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC nearly indentical as far as how close to SE Florida it gets from the 00Z run - note it turns almost due west briefly in the NW Bahamas before turning back NNW at the "last minute."

[TheStormExpert]

The UKMET would bring worse conditions to Palm Beach County than the GFS is showing. Scary thing is that it has shown the exact same track very near Palm Beach for 3 runs in a row now..hope the Euro doesn't shift west.

Unfortunately hasn't the Euro been gradually shifting west over the past few runs?

[tolakram]

UKMET plot



http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2303589

[JPmia]

12Z CMC nearly indentical as far as how close to SE Florida it gets - note it turns almost due west briefly in the NW Bahamas before turning back NNW at the "last minute."

Gator, the GFS does something similar, though not as pronounced, at hour 54 .. it's those pulses and wobbles that will become so important in the next few days.

[chaser1]

UKMET is about 60 miles from West Palm Beach at that 60 hour point.

Yep, as compared to the multi-model output on tropicaltidbits, this looks like "a hair" east of the previous couple of UK runs where the eye seems to ride NNW just inside the Florida coastline. Same track, but perhaps a 1/2 degree east? Very very close either way.