ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt this will deepen that much, given that's it's inner core will likely be disrupted in 12-24 hours as it passes near Cuba, although inner core dynamics tend to present major forecasting challenges.

[tolakram]

Eye is clearing back out.

[TheHook210]

The people that were calling for more east trends should go have a look at the model thread.

[fox13weather]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

all of the above

I've seen it over and over...if the core of the hurricane moves east of you ..impacts would be surprisingly minimal...much much much better to be on the west side.

[tolakram]

Visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[FLLurker32]

On satellite it looks like Matthews N movement may now be moving more NNW. Am I seeing things? It was moving that way over several frames.

[tgenius]

Eye is clearing back out.

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/X6u3uVV.png[/img]

Sure looks like the eye is going to barely touch the eastern tip of cuba... which would likely mean the structure will maintain itself pretty well.

[HurricaneFrances04]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

all of the above

I've seen it over and over...if the core of the hurricane moves east of you ..impacts would be surprisingly minimal...much much much better to be on the west side.

That seems to be the rule of thumb, but I remember the backside (west) of Wilma being just as bad, if not worse than the frontside. And that was ~6 hours after landfall. Maybe it depends on storm direction?

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

[cjrciadt]

Just a wobble or two and itcould miss the tip of Cuba! Scary it could remain Cat 4 Strength after two landfalls possibly!

[SunnyThoughts]

Rick Scott news conference. (watching on weather channel) Begging everyone to prepare today...don't wait. Have to prepare for landfall, whether it happens or not.

[fox13weather]

all of the above

I've seen it over and over...if the core of the hurricane moves east of you ..impacts would be surprisingly minimal...much much much better to be on the west side.

That seems to be the rule of thumb, but I remember the backside (west) of Wilma being just as bad, if not worse than the frontside. And that was ~6 hours after landfall. Maybe it depends on storm direction?

Lot of it depends on the angle of approach. I can't count the number of times forecasters have overstate potential impacts from hurricanes on the west side...if Matthew stays east of Florida by 75 to 100 miles....it will be a huge win.

[tolakram]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

GFS did not trend east, it was slower but track basically the same until the curve, which happened sooner due to the slower speed. Last 2 runs of the GFS have been the same distance off of Florida. I really want the models to trend east, the current track would cause a lot of damage up and down the coast that no one needs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

GFS did not trend east, it was slower but track basically the same until the curve, which happened sooner due to the slower speed. Last 2 runs of the GFS have been the same distance off of Florida. I really want the models to trend east, the current track would cause a lot of damage up and down the coast that no one needs.

Additionally, the NAM is not a tropical model and its outputs should not be used for forecasting tropical cyclones.

[RL3AO]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

Why?

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

NAM doesn't matter, GFS didn't move more east from Florida (just a tad slower), while UKMET, NAVGEM and CMC have made varying shifts west.

[SapphireSea]

I've seen it over and over...if the core of the hurricane moves east of you ..impacts would be surprisingly minimal...much much much better to be on the west side.

That seems to be the rule of thumb, but I remember the backside (west) of Wilma being just as bad, if not worse than the frontside. And that was ~6 hours after landfall. Maybe it depends on storm direction?

Lot of it depends on the angle of approach. I can't count the number of times forecasters have overstate potential impacts from hurricanes on the west side...if Matthew stays east of Florida by 75 to 100 miles....it will be a huge win.

This is one hundred percent true. A slight shift east changes a threat to a mostly sunny day with brief rainbands. Last thing needed is for alarms to be sounded and the deluge of tipped over lawn chair memes saying Matthew never forget. Think about the effect that represents.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

Why?

I am sensing some denial from people in the path. Every run it is expected to go out to sea. Others think it is about to recurve.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

Why?

I think the ridge is weaker than the models think and that the new TS in the Atlantic may help create just enough weakness to keep it from landfall. However, Florida could still see an impact or damage from the storm if I am right.

[1900hurricane]

I guess we're not getting the Metop passes today.