ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

WV loop where you can see the trough over the Eastern Gulf has stopped making progress westward as the Bermuda High begins to expand...

[AxaltaRacing24]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

Why?

I think the ridge is weaker than the models think and that the new TS in the Atlantic may help create just enough weakness to keep it from landfall. However, Florida could still see an impact or damage from the storm if I am right.

If anything the ridge is stronger than what the models think.

[cycloneye]

Matthew showing little effects from the Haiti land as it mantains very strong.

URNT12 KNHC 041701
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016
A. 04/16:37:50Z
B. 19 deg 07 min N
074 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2664 m
D. 117 kt
E. 034 deg 8 nm
F. 132 deg 124 kt
G. 036 deg 16 nm
H. 949 mb
I. 11 C / 3053 m
J. 15 C / 3043 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 1235 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 1914A MATTHEW OB 19
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 036 / 16 NM 16:32:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 230 / 8 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 192 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the eye is back to its original size at 30 nm. The next benchmark is eastern Cuba. If Matthew can manage to sneak just to the east, it would be very concerning for the Bahamas.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

VDM down to 949mb.

[tolakram]

So we've got people on both sides of the thinking that either the models are moving west or the models moving east. If you don't have hard data to back up your thoughts please save them until you do. Now is not the time for an argument about guesses. The ECMWF run starts at 1:45, right now it and the GFS are in agreement with a very close call for North Carolina, and Matthew staying uncomfortably close to the coast for days. That's it, that's all we know, unless you have the data to show otherwise.

Look at the NHC track and make a decision about what you need to do, if anything, and when you need to pull the trigger.

[chaser1]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

Though the storm could job slightly or easily be 50 or so miles to the west or east by the time it gets there, those subtle track changes that 50 or more miles make, might translate significantly if one remains far enough away on the western side of the storm. Of course that slight deviation toward the east, could just as easily occur toward the west. This is why the range of affect and impact you will ultimately receive up there, will be so dependant on the slightest of wiggles to the track as Matthew comes very close to you. I'd say there's a pretty good change you'll lose power. Tree limbs down, broken glass and windows a very good possibility for homes without any protection at all. The angle of wind trajectory would seem to imply that your East and North (and northwest) facing windows would probably be most at risk. Don't forget your cars too and if you are safely away from any threat of storm surge and staying at your house, perhaps better to keep cars as close to your house and on the west (or southwest side perhaps) if they cannot be garage kept. Definitely pick up yard debris, toys, trampolines, furniture, etc. That stuff might not be there when its all said and done (or might be lodged through your neighbors front window). If the storm takes the projected track, you'll likely receive the equivalent of strong tropical storm conditions to minimal hurricane conditions. Conditions ranging from moderate rain and windy, then a sudden strong squall with much stronger winds, then less windy and lighter rain, and back to another or longer squall of stronger weather. If you're in a feeder/rain band it could be fairly intense for a few hours. The entire event is a process that slowly deteriorates 12 or so hours in advance of the storm, and strongest when the eye is close. Even in passing your area, weather conditions might become far better until only suddenly hitting your with some strong squalls once more as another band of the departing hurricane happens to swing over your area. So much depends on whether one ends up 150 miles west of the eye, 40-50 miles west of the eye, or just a few miles to the west of it. A close call can be scary for 1st timers but easily survivable providing you've stocked up on all appropriate supplies. If the hurricane happens to come just a tiny bit closer though (or a direct hit), then everything i've mentioned thus far would be a walk in the park in comparison to the damage that would occur. Still, in a modern CBS concrete build home with the appropriate hurricane shutters you should be able to do just fine - just so long that you are NOT in a Storm surge flood zone. Finally, if you live in a modular home or especially a trailer home then i'd advise protecting your home as good as possible but NOT to stay during a hurricane. Remember too, roads and highways might get clogged from traffic trying to get out of the area. Don't chance last minute driving, especially when bridges might become dangerous to cross and flooding is a possibility to coastal areas as well. Definitely a threat to take very seriously.

[KWT]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

Why?

I think the ridge is weaker than the models think and that the new TS in the Atlantic may help create just enough weakness to keep it from landfall. However, Florida could still see an impact or damage from the storm if I am right.

I think if anything the TS Nicole is going to have very little role to play as the models hae badly under-estimated the strength of that upper ride, hence why they have all bent way west from their orginal ideas.

As you say, don't need a landfall to have a dangerous storm though, my gut is the RFQ is going to rake the outer banks given that track and somewhere will probably get the impacts of a major hurricane, even if it does stay just offshore.

[KWT]

VDM down to 949mb.

Yeah as myself and others have said in recent days that spit of land it went over in Haiti isn't really going to damage a storm too much, as a fair portion of the cane is over water at all times drawing energy in and also the time the eye spent overland was minimal.

Expect the exact same thing to happen over Cuba, a 5-10mbs rise followed by a steady drop back towards the orginal landfall pressure. (by steady, probably 6-9hrs of consistent drops)

[fci]

I believe models will continue to shift gradually away from landfall and move the storm more OTS. GFS trended east 2 runs in a row and so did the NAM. I believe ECMWF will shift east as well at 12z. Will be a close call but just my thoughts.

Why?

I think the ridge is weaker than the models think and that the new TS in the Atlantic may help create just enough weakness to keep it from landfall. However, Florida could still see an impact or damage from the storm if I am right.

Wow, tough time for "I think" when you don't have concrete model support for an "I think".
Personally, I have thoughts on what will happen based on following storms my entire life but I'm not expressing them while my area and hundreds of miles are under a Hurricane or Trooical Storm Watch.
Now, I feel a little better when the official NHC track moved from 90 to 120 miles offshore from where I live.
I like that trend.
But I'm not stopping my plans, although shutters for me are on hold. And I'm ready should the NHC put my area under a Hurricane Warning.
But I'm not basing anything on "I think".
Good luck to my fellow Floridians and those upstream through The Carolinas who may be under the gun.

[1900hurricane]

Radar is showing a thin secondary reflectivity max to the south of the southern eyewall. It's probably worth keeping an eye on. Tropical cyclones can do some wierd things after interacting with terrain as high and detrimental as Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

[GCANE]

Looks like a large and strong Theta-E ridge building in the Bahamas with 3500 CAPE.
Not a good scenario.
Matthew may track right into it.
Need to watch this carefully.

[Raebie]

Looks like a large and strong Theta-E ridge building in the Bahamas with 3500 CAPE.
Not a good scenario.
Matthew may track right into it.
Need to watch this carefully.

Translation?

[AutoPenalti]

Radar is showing a thin secondary reflectivity max to the south of the southern eyewall. It's probably worth keeping an eye on. Tropical cyclones can do some wierd things after interacting with terrain as high and detrimental as Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

A secondary eye wall??

[tgenius]

Looks like a large and strong Theta-E ridge building in the Bahamas with 3500 CAPE.
Not a good scenario.
Matthew may track right into it.
Need to watch this carefully.

Translation?

Ridge = High Pressure, will force Matthrew more westerly and restrict north movement.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a large and strong Theta-E ridge building in the Bahamas with 3500 CAPE.
Not a good scenario.
Matthew may track right into it.
Need to watch this carefully.

Isn't that the thumb ridge?
EDIT: Nope, but it could cause some pumping.

[karenfromheaven]

OMG - This plot of Matthew from the Models discussion brought back a memory for me:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118355&start=6000#p2555629

Remember how the remnants of Ivan came off the Virginia coast, looped back around to the south, crossed Florida into the Gulf, and hit LA? They eventually decided to call the regenerated storm Ivan, but for a while, they debated giving it the new name of, wait for it, Matthew!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=46454

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a large and strong Theta-E ridge building in the Bahamas with 3500 CAPE.
Not a good scenario.
Matthew may track right into it.
Need to watch this carefully.

[image removed, because we don't need to see that twenty more times]

Translation?

Instability. Plenty of it to support a high intensity tropical cyclone.

[GCANE]

Looks like a large and strong Theta-E ridge building in the Bahamas with 3500 CAPE.
Not a good scenario.
Matthew may track right into it.
Need to watch this carefully.

Translation?

Good chance for RI

[Raebie]

So my daughter is in Wilmington at UNCW and is fighting me about coming home. We have a brick ranch about 5 miles from the coast. Thoughts?