Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 15N46W to 8N52W moving west-northwest
at near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is moving through an
area between two upper ridges enhancing scattered moderate to
strong convection within 180 nm southeast of the wave axis,
within 270 nm northwest of the wave axis south of 15N, and
within 60/75 nm of a line from 16N38W to 2N45W.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/783276737199157249




New internal invest was added by the NHC today as well:

GENESIS029, AL, L, , , , , 75, 2016, DB, O, 2016100406, 9999999999, , 029, , , , GENESIS, , AL752016

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible in the Windward Islands during the next couple of days
during the wave's passage.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Medtronic15]

Invest 99L soooonnn!

GENESIS029,%20AL,%20L,%20,%20,%20,%20,%2075,%202016,%20DB,%20O,%202016100406,%209999999999,%20,%20029,%20,%20,%20,%20GENESIS,%20,%20AL752016

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016


A strong tropical wave extends its axis across the central
Atlantic from 16N48W to 08N54W, moving west at 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at
700 mb as depicted in model guidance and prevails in an area of
abundant moisture. A large area of scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N-17N between 40W-59W.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops this wave into a TD at the most in this run.

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical
wave. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless
of tropical cyclone development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds
are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the
next couple of days as the wave approaches and then passes.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N56N to 17N51W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 15N between
49W-59W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 06N-15N between 45W-59W. ...



Convection not as impressive as before, but (according to our local Met Office) that's due to the presence of a TROF and once that moves toward the northwest, away from the wave, the deeper convection will return. (At least, that's what I think I heard.)

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located near eastern Cuba, and on Tropical Storm Nicole
located several hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the
next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands during the next day or two as the wave
moves through the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent ...

Forecaster Cangialosi

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 15N57W to 7N57W moving west-northwest
at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700
mb trough south of 13N and remains embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm of a line from 16N41W 14N48W to 15N57W.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the
next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands during the next day or two as the wave
moves through the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

Tropical wave extends from 15N53W to 8N58W moving west-northwest
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 13N and remains embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 90/120 nm of a line from 15N44W 14N51W to 16N57W.

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: ...

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the
next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands during the next day or two as the wave
moves through the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent ...

Forecaster Berg

[SoupBone]

Are they thinking Nicaragua/Honduras for this guy? That's a pretty low riding system.

[terstorm1012]

so if Matthew does the loop as depicted on some models and gets stuck in the Gulf down by the Yucatan next week (I think the 0zGFS had this solution---wild as heck!), would this still develop if it sticks to being a Caribbean runner?

let me know if my question isn't clear...I'm still wrapping my head around the forecast scenarios with Matthew.

[Gustywind]

so if Matthew does the loop as depicted on some models and gets stuck in the Gulf down by the Yucatan next week (I think the 0zGFS had this solution---wild as heck!), would this still develop if it sticks to being a Caribbean runner?

let me know if my question isn't clear...I'm still wrapping my head around the forecast scenarios with Matthew.

It's not even an Invest IMO it's maybe a bit early to look at the models?

[abajan]

Convection increasing this morning as aforementioned TROF moves away from the wave:



The position of the X on the outlook graphic seems to have been stuck near 55W for quite a while.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing cloudiness and a few showers. Some
development of this system is possible when the wave reaches the
southwestern Caribbean Sea early next week. Locally heavy rains and
gusty winds are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands during the next day or two as the wave moves through the
area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 20N58W to 10N61W moving northwest
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 13N and remains embedded within an area of
moisture. No associated deep convection is noted.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms approaching the
Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Development,
if any, of this disturbance is expected to be slow to occur while
the wave moves westward through the Caribbean Sea through early
next week. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or two as
the system moves through the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016



...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 19N59W to 10N61W moving northwest
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 13N and remains embedded within an area of
moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11N-
16N between 53W-58W.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Martinica fo strong showers and tstorms due to the arrival of this twave. Thus, yellow alert is maintained since Tuesday for the the rough seas related to Matthew. An unsual direction of the waves are spreading on Martinica.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... inique.pdf

[EquusStorm]

Definitely lots of convection and turning. Wonder when this will get an official invest?