ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

The more I see of the post-landfall recon data, the more convinced I am that landfall intensity was of 130 kt or higher with a pressure of 930 mb or lower.

Looks like there are at least a few others out there who think similarly.

 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/783359967625482240

[seahawkjd]

So my daughter is in Wilmington at UNCW and is fighting me about coming home. We have a brick ranch about 5 miles from the coast. Thoughts?

its more fun at college than at home with you..sorry..leave her alone...

Lol. So you think she'd be OK in that scenario, even if it comes onshore there? SHE'S in the brick ranch in Wilmington. I'm in Charlotte.

Unless its changed since I was there if they evacuate Wrightsville Beach they will evacuate the campus. Thats usually a good indication that she might want to leave town. Five miles inland from the coast but how near the river, wetlands? Also, remind her that its fun at first but it ends up being less so when you are sitting with no electricity afterwards while the cleanup is going on.

One final thing to think about, if they start calling for evacuations south of Wilmington it might clog the roads a bit if she does end up coming home. Keep that in mind with time frame of when the storm is supposed to start having effects on the area.

All of this is just my opinion, but its from things I have seen / experienced living in the area.

[chaser1]

Colder cloud tops really took a big hit, though the overall structure of the storm thus far is very intact, albeit the tight surface gradient has probably been expanded and weakened. Just not seeing some colder tops starting to make a come back though. I could imagine a nearly "full recovery" of the storms' structural integrity and defined eye wall in 12-24 hours providing the storm were not to take much of a hit from another immediate "road trip" over far E. Cuba. If it dodges that bullet, then Bahamas and Florida beware. Outside of the ongoing "wobble wars" and ultimate track, I'm anticipating that Matthew regains Cat 4 status (and I don't think Cat. 5 is out of the question either)

[Michele B]

anyone see the few GEFS models do a HUGE loop?

http://i65.tinypic.com/dgquz8.gif

LOL. Everybody loves the Bahamas, even hurricanes.

Not funny, but damn. I either laugh or cry.

Don't know if this is on-topic but for those of you with 2-story houses, do you bother boarding up the second story windows as well? Got two big windows upstairs to my master bedroom and it would be a real hassle to have to board those up. But then again, it would be a bigger hassle to get them replaced and deal with the damage.

Not only is boarding up important to protect windows from damage, it also serves to protect the structure from wind intrusion should the opening be breached. If high winds are allowed into the structure, the likeliehood of roof failure or loss increases greatly. And the winds might be a little stronger on the second floor. They certainly are stronger in the upper floors of high rise buildings.

Karen,
Are you in LeHigh? You shouldn't be having winds strong enough to warrant boarding up.
BUT - if you are going to board up, YES, you should board ALL windows to prevent the storm from entering your home through any weak spot, such as unboarded window. Plus, it is true, the winds are higher in higher altitudes, and the second floor IS higher than first floor, so....

[Raebie]

its more fun at college than at home with you..sorry..leave her alone...

Lol. So you think she'd be OK in that scenario, even if it comes onshore there? SHE'S in the brick ranch in Wilmington. I'm in Charlotte.

Unless its changed since I was there if they evacuate Wrightsville Beach they will evacuate the campus. Thats usually a good indication that she might want to leave town. Five miles inland from the coast but how near the river, wetlands? Also, remind her that its fun at first but it ends up being less so when you are sitting with no electricity afterwards while the cleanup is going on.

One final thing to think about, if they start calling for evacuations south of Wilmington it might clog the roads a bit if she does end up coming home. Keep that in mind with time frame of when the storm is supposed to start having effects on the area.

All of this is just my opinion, but its from things I have seen / experienced living in the area.

All good points. Fortunately UNCW is on fall break on Thursday & Friday, so a lot of those kids will be leaving on Wednesday night and Thursday anyway. That should really help with any evacs that might be ordered. I told her she needs to get in line on 74.

[Aric Dunn]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

[windnrain]

Latest MIMIC

[hurricanefloyd5]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

Aric will Matthew slam into central Florida with the ridge pushing westward or will the ridge be weaker?

[SunnyThoughts]

[jlauderdal]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

its taking a very efficient track for max intensity in the bahamas and beyond

[msbee]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[eastcoastFL]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-vis-long.html

Im an admitted wobble watcher but does anyone else see what appeared a western wobble here?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/783365882810687488

[GCANE]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Eyewall is building back nicely

[chaser1]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

You thinking what i'm thinking? wobble -wobble, deepen, & stall. Then the apprehension of forward motion, timing, and further implications to track. I'm more apt to think that any surprises or adjustments to forecast will be more a result of these next 12-18 hours, than changing synoptics beyond that point. Once Matthew has cleared the N. Coast of Cuba and begun its intended forward motion, i'd be pretty confident that NHC's 2-4 day forecast would be unlikely to deviate much further.

[Aric Dunn]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

You thinking what i'm thinking? wobble -wobble, deepen, & stall. Then the apprehension of forward motion, timing, and further implications to track. I'm more apt to think that any surprises or adjustments to forecast will be more a result of these next 12-18 hours, than changing synoptics beyond that point. Once Matthew has cleared the N. Coast of Cuba and begun its intended forward motion, i'd be pretty confident that NHC's 2-4 day forecast would be unlikely to deviate much further.

yeah land interaction will be only real thing to hold it up and slow it down potentially missing the trough later on and before that bringing it into Florida. right now its just east of due north which should have minimal inner core effects from cuba but still a lot of land to get hung up on.

[tolakram]

latest

[GCANE]

Quickly regaining strength - core heating back up.
Western eyewall cum nims popping above the cirrus

[xironman]

The eye is much larger post Haiti, probably the windfield will increase as well.

[tolakram]

From the ftp site