ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6161 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:06 pm

2 concerns about this Euro:

1) At hour 24 too far south I think!
2) What's that low off of NC at 48??
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6162 Postby miamijaaz » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:06 pm

What month is it?!? Euro looks like a typical August/September pattern.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6163 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:06 pm

Careful with the comparisons, it may be very similar to the 0z, it is more south than the last 12z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6164 Postby Vdogg » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:Did Euro initialize to far south?

Looks like it to me.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6165 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:07 pm

miamijaaz wrote:What month is it?!? Euro looks like a typical August/September pattern.

Because that is the pattern right now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6166 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:07 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


He ate Nicole alive. No reflection..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6167 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:07 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Umm... that didn't initialize right.


Why are you saying this? It was 12z initialization and had it right over the Tiburon Peninsula. Looks right on the money to me.


This is correct. Init looks right on. Remember, it's not where Matthew is 'right now - it's where Matthew was at 12Z, which was earlier this morning around 8am
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6168 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:07 pm

I never say this, that acceleration and tight ball is scary memory from 1992...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6169 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:07 pm

15Z Thursday, central Andros Island at 949mb
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6170 Postby miamijaaz » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:08 pm

Double Post
Last edited by miamijaaz on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6171 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:08 pm

For the last time, Euro did not initialize too south. It might be too slow in the first 24 hr, or it might be capturing Matthew's interaction with Cuba. We don't know yet.

I am seeing a tweet about this turning NE at hr 60. Could be from the weakness created by whatever is offshore NC. Something to watch

EDIT: nevermind. Comes ashore at hr 72. Space Coast.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6172 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:08 pm

This was the 0Z frame 12 hours from that 12Z frame. Ridge looks similar.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6173 Postby Vdogg » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:08 pm

tolakram wrote:Careful with the comparisons, it may be very similar to the 0z, it is more south than the last 12z.

I was about to say. It looks almost exactly the same as 0z. Was getting confused by people saying "way slower".
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6174 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:08 pm

Florida landfall at 72hrs on the 00z Euro.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6175 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:08 pm

Looks like landfall, or close to it at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6176 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm

Well crap.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6177 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm

tolakram wrote:Careful with the comparisons, it may be very similar to the 0z, it is more south than the last 12z.


I just looked at the 00z. It is definitely more SW than it. The 00z had a track East and North of Andros Island. This 12z is almost on top of it. I didn't see any initialization issues either.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6178 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm

hello florida!!! at 72 hours
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6179 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm

tolakram wrote:Well crap.

Image


Ouch! That hurt.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6180 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:09 pm

Another shift west by the Euro and looks similar to the UKMET. Landfall on East-Central Florida coast but not before a swipe on SE Florida. :eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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