ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6201 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Image

Image
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miamijaaz
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6202 Postby miamijaaz » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:16 pm

So, after a respite this morning, another western trend appears to be happening. Wonder if the TS watch for Broward and maybe Miami-Dade will be upgraded to a Hurricane Watch at 5 pm or 11 pm?
Last edited by miamijaaz on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6203 Postby Vdogg » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:16 pm

This euro run looks....weird.
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TheHook210
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6204 Postby TheHook210 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:16 pm

drezee wrote:That was a surprise...please be wrong...this one time. That would be hurricane force to Orlando and TS to Tampa



It's actually roughly Melbourne.. That's 20 Minutes from me. Glad I prepped last night for this. Getting out of dodge tomorrow for sure since I'm on a barrier island.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6205 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:17 pm

Huh. Sharp east at 120. I wonder if it's about to do the loop some other models/ensembles have been showing.
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drezee
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6206 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:17 pm

That 120 days bb stall....don't do it Euro...no loops back in
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6207 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:17 pm

Damn thing is hanging half offshore all the way to Jacksonville.
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6208 Postby TimeZone » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:17 pm

It only makes landfall in Florida as a 954 MB Cane? I mean, that seems like a bit of a high pressure all things considered....
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6209 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:18 pm

What the.....

I'm not sure if I want to acknowledge what the Euro is doing, but it is awfully similar to the UKMET? And some of the GFS ensembles. That would be insane. :eek:
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drezee
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6210 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:18 pm

Are you kidding me??? Loops back into FL!!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6211 Postby WHYB630 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:19 pm

Plz note that UKM did the looping in 12z run too :double:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png
Last edited by WHYB630 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6212 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:19 pm

I'm hoping someone from Weatherbell will tweet a hi rez pic.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783383009902886913


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TimeZone

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6213 Postby TimeZone » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:20 pm

Loops back into Florida, but it's in quite pathetic shape by the time it makes it's way back.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6214 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:20 pm

Loops back but very weak.

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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6215 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:21 pm

And then heads back to the Gulf...that's almost hysterical.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6216 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:21 pm

192 in the gulf lol what the...
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crm6360

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6217 Postby crm6360 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:21 pm

TimeZone wrote:Loops back into Florida, but it's in quite pathetic shape by the time it makes it's way back.

That's a key point. It would be an extremely unusual if not unprecedented track, but the only real impact from the 2nd hit would appear to be in delaying cleanup efforts from where it makes landfall the 1st time.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6218 Postby Airboy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:22 pm

What would cause it to break down like that?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6219 Postby Vdogg » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:22 pm

I'll be completely honest. I don't think I buy this run. Gonna see what the 18z gfs says. And what the hell happened to 144?
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crm6360

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6220 Postby crm6360 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:22 pm

Airboy wrote:What would cause it to break down like that?

Significant upwelling and shear.
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