ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783383009902886913

[Bluespider]

ECMWF now showing Florida East Coast landfall, around Melbourne.

ECMWF joins the 12z west train that includes I think every model, save for the HWRF. NHC sure to adjust the cone west as well at 5pm. Now you have to wonder if Hurricane Watches may be needed for Miami and Broward...

Where did you get that information? if it comes on shore it would be the first direct hit to Brevard county.

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783383009902886913

Wow. Euro has Matthew huge there.

[GCANE]

Drop from Gonzo at 30.0N 77.5W
500mb, Height = 5860m
GFS, Height = 5858m
NAM: 5847m
RAP: 5856m

[Aric Dunn]

Euro track is not good..

[otowntiger]

I am curious what would 959 mb pressure equate to in winds, approximately. I realize its not an exact formula. I know with Matthew he had a very high central pressure for a Cat 5, relatively speaking. Just wondering how high the winds are projected to be on that run at landfall since that is what the Euro is showing at 72 hours - landfall at Melbourne at 959. Cat 3/4? Coming in at that angle at that strength would bring Charley type winds to the Orlando Metro area I would think. (and by 'Charley type' winds I mean gusts near 100 mph when he was downtown. )

[gatorcane]

ECMWF now showing Florida East Coast landfall, around Melbourne.

ECMWF joins the 12z west train that includes I think every model, save for the HWRF. NHC sure to adjust the cone west as well at 5pm. Now you have to wonder if Hurricane Watches may be needed for Miami and Broward...

Where did you get that information? if it comes on shore it would be the first direct hit to Brevard county.

You bet you hurricane watches for Miami-Dade and Broward especially if ECMWF ensembles follow suite. ECMWF has trended west every run. Not good folks here in SE Florida and the East Coast of Florida.

[Patrick99]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783383009902886913

I will believe this when I see it gaining more longitude - pretty weary of computer models and trust my own eyes more. If it's going to do something approaching that, I would think that it would have to start gaining that longitude very soon. Just my two pennies.

[TheStormExpert]

Just went to Costco in Palm Beach Gardens and they ran out of water 5hrs. ago. The panic is real with Matthew!

[hurricaneCW]

Euro is close to putting Miami in serious danger. Things just got really bad for Florida as that ridging continues to grow stronger.

Starting to wonder if it could hit Miami from the SE directly as a category 4 storm.

[GCANE]

Whoa - very rarely see air like this over the water.
Huge 5000 CAPE Ridge east of KSC.
If a thunderstorm ran into something like that it would explode.
Need to watch if that moves south toward Matthew.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783383009902886913

I will believe this when I see it gaining more longitude - pretty weary of computer models and trust my own eyes more. If it's going to do something approaching that, I would think that it would have to start gaining that longitude very soon. Just my two pennies.

Depending where you live along SFL it's time to prepare NOW.

[crm6360]

I have a wedding to attend in the outer banks on Oct 15 - next weekend. They have already started evacuations on the barrier islands. For those who are more familiar with the evacuation protocols, how soon would they let people back on the islands? If the GFS is correct, the storm would be safely OTS later Sunday-Monday (Oct 9-10). If the Euro is correct, the storm would be spinning itself down for days off the SE coast near Florida. Just trying to figure out when they decide to give the all-clear to let people back on the barrier islands in both scenarios.

Also, on a related note, the bride and groom are quite determined to be at their beach house that they rented for the week of Oct 9-16. Does the national guard have the authority to force people off the island? Can they arrest anyone who refuses to comply?

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its wobbling a little more to nne may miss land completely ..

[Nimbus]

Drop from Gonzo at 30.0N 77.5W
500mb, Height = 5860m
GFS, Height = 5858m
NAM: 5847m
RAP: 5856m

That is one point in the steering ridge, doesn't guarantee the corresponding GFS will verify.
Also windfields may be larger..

[Hamanard]

SC coastal communities under mandatory evacuations as of 3pm tomorrow per the governor.

Update: 1.1 million will be evacuated as of now. Could be more.

[bob rulz]

I have a wedding to attend in the outer banks on Oct 15 - next weekend. They have already started evacuations on the barrier islands. For those who are more familiar with the evacuation protocols, how soon would they let people back on the islands? If the GFS is correct, the storm would be safely OTS later Sunday-Monday (Oct 9-10). If the Euro is correct, the storm would be spinning itself down for days off the SE coast near Florida. Just trying to figure out when they decide to give the all-clear to let people back on the barrier islands in both scenarios.

Also, on a related note, the bride and groom are quite determined to be at their beach house that they rented for the week of Oct 9-16. Does the national guard have the authority to force people off the island? Can they arrest anyone who refuses to comply?

Tell them to stay away, do anything you need to do to convince them. If it ends up as bad as it looks right now, they may not have a beach house to stay in.

I don't think they can forcibly remove people once they're there, but I'm sure they do have the authority to keep people from going onto the islands if possible.

[baitism]

If Matthew continues to go due north for the next 6-8 hours, it won't spend more than a couple hours over Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

Drop from Gonzo at 30.0N 77.5W
500mb, Height = 5860m
GFS, Height = 5858m
NAM: 5847m
RAP: 5856m

That is one point in the steering ridge, doesn't guarantee the corresponding GFS will verify.
Also windfields may be larger..

What?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have a wedding to attend in the outer banks on Oct 15 - next weekend. They have already started evacuations on the barrier islands. For those who are more familiar with the evacuation protocols, how soon would they let people back on the islands? If the GFS is correct, the storm would be safely OTS later Sunday-Monday (Oct 9-10). If the Euro is correct, the storm would be spinning itself down for days off the SE coast near Florida. Just trying to figure out when they decide to give the all-clear to let people back on the barrier islands in both scenarios.

Also, on a related note, the bride and groom are quite determined to be at their beach house that they rented for the week of Oct 9-16. Does the national guard have the authority to force people off the island? Can they arrest anyone who refuses to comply?

Tell them to stay away, do anything you need to do to convince them. If it ends up as bad as it looks right now, they may not have a beach house to stay in.

I don't think they can forcibly remove people once they're there, but I'm sure they do have the authority to keep people from going onto the islands if possible.

They will ask for names of next of kin...if they need to contact someone