ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, that's insane, it loops back?!?!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/783385975812722688

[miamijaaz]

If the UKMET actually verifies and called the loop d loop before the Euro or GFS, I will never make fun of it again.

[HurricaneFrances04]

So we're at the point where the GFS and Euro are completely different on timing. I'd expect the 5 pm track to shift SW at day 5, only to signify a slower system.

I'm sure the NHC is glad that they don't publish their 7 day track.

[fci]

Loops back into Florida, but it's in quite pathetic shape by the time it makes it's way back.

That's a key point. It would be an extremely unusual if not unprecedented track, but the only real impact from the 2nd hit would appear to be in delaying cleanup efforts from where it makes landfall the 1st time.

Probably a naked swirl by the time it came back anyway

[TheDreamTraveler]

If the UKMET actually verifies and called the loop d loop before the Euro or GFS, I will never make fun of it again.

The UKMET already called out the westward shift before the other models. So it'd have 2 wins under its belt from the other computer models.

[TimeZone]

Still shocked to see the pressure at only 954 MB's when it makes landfall in FL. I would've expected it to be much stronger.

[tolakram]

It's weak because it's on the coast all the way to South Carolina. You can't make this kind of run up.

[WHYB630]

Looks like further west -> more interaction with land -> Matt turns weaker after 120hrs -> feeling effect from Nicole
-> they fall in love and start looping

[artist]

This so reminds me of the 4idge setup with Frances, first was to skirt along 78.5, yet ended up on shore.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still shocked to see the pressure at only 954 MB's when it makes landfall in FL. I would've expected it to be much stronger.

It is much stronger. The ECMWF on Levi's site isn't the full resolution. Note the initialization is only 964mb.

[WHYB630]

Still shocked to see the pressure at only 954 MB's when it makes landfall in FL. I would've expected it to be much stronger.

low res image ?

[SouthFLTropics]

Not gonna lie ...Had feeling this was gonna happen with the JMA and Euro Ensembles showing west earlier..

Right there with you...I had that feeling as well. I've been waiting to see the Euro run but I had an inkling where it was going with this already. Euro is deadly at the 2-3 day range. I think we're getting zeroed in on my friend.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/783388300186820608

[TimeZone]

Still shocked to see the pressure at only 954 MB's when it makes landfall in FL. I would've expected it to be much stronger.

It is much stronger. The ECMWF on Levi's site isn't the full resolution. Note the initialization is only 964mb.

That makes a lot more sense.

[SunnyThoughts]

hour 216 moving sw in the gulf haha Can't even believe i just typed that.

[TimeZone]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

Well, at least the strongest winds stay offshore I suppose...

[ThetaE]

I'll be completely honest. I don't think I buy this run. Gonna see what the 18z gfs says. And what the hell happened to ?

What happened to what? I don't know what you're talking about.

Nope, apparently it was just late in getting out:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Suspect run? There was issues with the data that prevented data coming out in time. I'll wait until 00z to see if this is an actual trend with the ECMWF.