ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneseddy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct8ywH1WgAAnyDf.jpg:large

12z European ensembles

Question - where did you get this graphic, caneseddy?

I actually off of a Ryan Maue tweet...if I did wrong, I will delete the post.

[hurricaneCW]

Euro and Ukmet are the clear leaders here based on the graphic above. Also that loop would not surprise me as there's nothing to pull Matthew north after 30-31N due to the zonal flow.

[wxman57]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct8ywH1WgAAnyDf.jpg:large

12z European ensembles

Question - where did you get this graphic, caneseddy?

I actually off of a Ryan Maue tweet...if I did wrong, I will delete the post.

No, if he tweeted it then it's fair game. I was just curious where I could go to see the ensembles early. I don't believe he makes that data available at wxbell.

[yzerfan]

Further west shifting probable.

Im sort of wondering how to react in Tampa. A storm like this, as strong as it is wouldn't matter what coast it hits in florida it will still be significant on the other side. Jeanne and Frances really did a number on our area and they hit the opposite side of the coast. We had 100mph Gusts still.

As long as Tampa stays to the west of the eye, I'd call it uncomfortable but tolerable. The scary stuff for the region happens with a scenario when winds to the east of the eye funnel water up into bays and bayous and a lot of low-lying areas like South Tampa are facing significant storm surge.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

anyone have the most recent aussie run of the aces model?

[otowntiger]

Question - where did you get this graphic, caneseddy?

I actually off of a Ryan Maue tweet...if I did wrong, I will delete the post.

No, if he tweeted it then it's fair game. I was just curious where I could go to see the ensembles early. I don't believe he makes that data available at wxbell.

Wxman57: What are your thoughts today regarding Florida impacts? Your vacation starting on Monday should be good, I know but wondering if you think significant impacts to the Central Florida area are real?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

anyone have the most recent aussie run of the aces model?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

[WPBWeather]

anyone have the most recent aussie run of the aces model?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

There you are! You knew something all along it seems!

[adam0983]

Does anyone think the storm can make landfall in broward Miami palm beach county.

[Vdogg]

What time does 18z gfs run?

[dukeblue219]

What time does 18z gfs run?

You'll start to see it around 5:30pm.

[tolakram]

GFS runs 4x daily - 11:25 AM/PM & 5:25 AM/PM EDT

ECMWF runs 2x daily - 1:45 AM/PM EDT

[Raebie]

I think the Euro owes us a special run tonight. Lol.

[Dean4Storms]

Question - where did you get this graphic, caneseddy?

I actually off of a Ryan Maue tweet...if I did wrong, I will delete the post.

No, if he tweeted it then it's fair game. I was just curious where I could go to see the ensembles early. I don't believe he makes that data available at wxbell.

Yes, this graphic is available on Weatherbell down the ECM choices the heading to the link says ECMWF +EPS Storm Tracks "Cyclone Forecasts"

[Vdogg]

GFS runs 4x daily - 11:25 AM/PM & 5:25 AM/PM EDT

ECMWF runs 2x daily - 1:45 AM/PM EDT

Thanks

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS running...already looks like slightly more ridging than 12Z.

[SouthDadeFish]

Ridge to the NE of Matthew is slightly stronger on the 18Z GFS through 12 hours. Makes sense after seeing the G-IV drops. Will another slight west shift result? Pretty interesting how basically every model run continues to enhance the strength of that ridge.

[Steve]

Clarification please. Just saw two EURO products, one showing Florida coastline landfall S. of Cocaine beach in 72 hrs., but just prior... a maximum gust forecast that keeps winds on the coast in the 90's range and appearant track off shore??

Might be due to either the fact that the western quadrant is usually weaker wind-wise and/or the impact of surface roughness on near surface wind speeds.

(Sorry, "auto-correct", changed Cocoa Beach);. Anyways, that run may well be bogus then.

"Knots" - my error. Thanks

Lmao on that frequently used autocorrect. I doubt many people need it at the moment with sleepless nights ahead, model consensuses that move with time and an awkward Euro track doing something we don't often see.

[gatorcane]

GFS 18 hours has Matthew already a touch west of the 12Z position and slightly stronger ridge

[dukeblue219]

GFS 18 hours has Matthew already a touch west of the 12Z position and slightly stronger ridge

It looks dead-on the same to me at 24 hours vs 30 hours from 12Z.