ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6321 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:51 pm

SapphireSea wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image


If that 588 contour is in that position it is a classical case of the MU plowing through the ridge. Cant see a 350degree heading in the face of that setup. But more west. This all but confirms the short and mid term Euro is not truely bugged.


Whats is an MU?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6322 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:51 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Just when I think a run is going to direct hit Florida, Matthew scoots north.


It does hit on other models, so keep watching.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6323 Postby HurrMark » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:53 pm

Heading between JAX/SAV...unless it does another quick exit stage right...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6324 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:53 pm

4 run trend, a lot closer this run.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6325 Postby HurrMark » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:54 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image


If that 588 contour is in that position it is a classical case of the MU plowing through the ridge. Cant see a 350degree heading in the face of that setup. But more west. This all but confirms the short and mid term Euro is not truely bugged.


Whats is an MU?



Alyono's term for the GFS...stands for Model Uccelini since Louis Uccelini heads NWS
Last edited by HurrMark on Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6326 Postby SapphireSea » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:54 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image


If that 588 contour is in that position it is a classical case of the MU plowing through the ridge. Cant see a 350degree heading in the face of that setup. But more west. This all but confirms the short and mid term Euro is not truely bugged.


Whats is an MU?


A nickname based on the Dir of NWS. I heard and laughed at this when some pro mets complained about the GFS' poor performance record after "upgrades".


Edit: Better explaination of the term given than mine :P ** Edit 2: Yes I was right first time. I keep stand corrected. Anyways onwards lets see 00z.
Last edited by SapphireSea on Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6327 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:55 pm

943mb rising to 948mb

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6328 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:57 pm

HurrMark wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:
If that 588 contour is in that position it is a classical case of the MU plowing through the ridge. Cant see a 350degree heading in the face of that setup. But more west. This all but confirms the short and mid term Euro is not truely bugged.


Whats is an MU?



Alyono's term for the GFS...stands for Model Uccelini since Louis Uccelini heads NWS


Thanks. I would've never ever guessed that.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6329 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:58 pm

So are the models weakening this based on expected interaction with Cuba? If it makes it out of the passage at strong 3/weak 4 strength will be 00z GFS up the strength again?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6330 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:58 pm

Moving parallel to the coast now, it's going to be a squeaker.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6331 Postby SapphireSea » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:59 pm

tolakram wrote:Moving parallel to the coast now, it's going to be a squeaker.

Image


Very close call. Still trended West. Have to see what the 00z models have to offer.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6332 Postby Mouton » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:Much more ridging by hour 36 and slightly west of 12Z


That damn high will not break down or go away which is driving this right into the first coast on the GFS. It is about 1 deg west of the prior run almost all the way after 24 hours. Guess those from south of Canaveral through St mary's Ga need to keep on with their preps as there seems no let up in this and nothing on the horizon to destroy that ridge.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6333 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:02 pm

This looks somewhat familiar. Pops off the coast ... is it going loop de loop?

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6334 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6335 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:08 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


Gonna do the euro loop this run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6336 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:10 pm

No loop but rapid weakening similar to the euro.
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6337 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:12 pm

Image


Image


Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6338 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:12 pm

Here's the 4 run trend. Last 2 significantly south of the previous two.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6339 Postby HurrMark » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:13 pm

Must be the 4th run in a row that the GFS is one tick from "official" landfall but curls out just in time...also the NE threat is completely gone (despite what the NHC says). Still a terrible run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6340 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:15 pm

Image
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