ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

What? The UKMET had a very similar solution. It's a weird solution, but please don't call it a "bad run from a system malfunction" when that is not the case.

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

Thank God for humans! Still think that mets from 50 years ago, with their pens and charts, would have done better with this storm than our super sensitive-super complex Euro and GFS.

[SapphireSea]

What? The UKMET had a very similar solution. It's a weird solution, but please don't call it a "bad run from a system malfunction" when that is not the case.

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

Thank God for humans! Still think that mets from 50 years ago, with their pens and charts, would have done better with this storm than our super sensitive-super complex Euro and GFS.

Super sensitive is right. Only concern I do have is the fact that Euro and especially GFS always kind of overestimate troughs and underestimate ridging which means they are always off in their track errors to the right. (East and North)

[NDG]

Come on people, 18z GFS says the 12z Euro is not that crazy.

[stormreader]

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

Thank God for humans! Still think that mets from 50 years ago, with their pens and charts, would have done better with this storm than our super sensitive-super complex Euro and GFS.

Super sensitive is right. Only concern I do have is the fact that Euro and especially GFS always kind of overestimate troughs and underestimate ridging which means they are always off in their track errors to the right. (East and North)

All along I thought that rushing would push this storm to Fl. Been saying so for close to a week or so. Well don't know if it will make it all the way to the keys and the West Coadt of Fl like I've been saying, but it ain't over yet, and I think it's gonna be close. You are right about underestimating ridges. Expect another decent shift west.

[Patrick99]

What? The UKMET had a very similar solution. It's a weird solution, but please don't call it a "bad run from a system malfunction" when that is not the case.

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

Thank God for humans! Still think that mets from 50 years ago, with their pens and charts, would have done better with this storm than our super sensitive-super complex Euro and GFS.

Yeah, I always liked it when they would get their hands dirty and really draw on their expertise, tell you the various possibilities, and the hows and whys of what is going on. Those days are over, replaced by running the precious Euro and GFS every 6 hours and tossing them in a blender.

[tolakram]

Yeah, I always liked it when they would get their hands dirty and really draw on their expertise, tell you the various possibilities, and the hows and whys of what is going on. Those days are over, replaced by running the precious Euro and GFS every 6 hours and tossing them in a blender.

And thankfully that why track errors are so much less than they used to be and getting better every year.

[floridasun78]

i watching to see hurr watch go down to miami or dade some you know by it by 11pm

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just thought I would share this little blurb from our local news media.

http://www.wect.com/story/33315748/uncw ... -emergency

[Exalt]

I think this may stay a Cat 4 until at least near NC, the eye is barely touching Cuba and it looks great despite having rammed right into Haiti. Not to mention it's created its own environment, has no shear around it, and has high SSTs to feed off of.

[stormreader]

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

Thank God for humans! Still think that mets from 50 years ago, with their pens and charts, would have done better with this storm than our super sensitive-super complex Euro and GFS.

Yeah, I always liked it when they would get their hands dirty and really draw on their expertise, tell you the various possibilities, and the hows and whys of what is going on. Those days are over, replaced by running the precious Euro and GFS every 6 hours and tossing them in a blender.

Your post is maybe the strongest I've ever seen on this site. To just endlessly run models with little or no commentary, or worse, have model runs based on info that pro mets perhaps can't decipher leaves one feeing under nourished. That's what happened with this storm. I knew we were in trouble with the original out to sea forecast when no one could really explain why. The only sure thing was the consistent strength of the Atlantic Ridge. That's why I felt a Fl landfall (even Key West and affect West Coast) was likely. The public has been reduced to running endless models with not an inkling about what's really going on. Good post.

[Michele B]

I know all eyes are on Florida but do you think the threat to NY/Jersey Shore is somewhat off the table?

Looks like still in the cone.

Stay tuned!

[flamingosun]

Today, our local news site published an article about how the various cruise lines are rerouting their FL ships due to Matthew. The link to the full story is below, but I had to read this line twice before believing it -

"The Carnival Elation in Jacksonville is also avoiding Nassau and heading to Key West, then back to Freeport in the Bahamas behind the storm."

WTH!? Are they going to sell "Looting Excursions" or a "Bahamian Ruins Tour"?

http://www.mynews13.com/content/news/cf ... rambl.html

We are currently on the freedom of the seas, which skipped the cruise. Lines,s private island in the Bahamas, and is docked instead at San Juan this evening.
There are a good number of passengers aboard from Florida, and. are rightly concerned. I M quite nervous about what we may find on our return... we are from coastal Brevard. At this point, all we can do is monitor Matthew and hope.
Point: IF you are any where on the east coast, and CAN prepare now,DO so,please. We only wish we could!

[Wakeknight]

A question about preparedness: For those of us on the Southwest coast of Florida think Sarasota and points South... how far west of a shift would need to be forecast before major preps would need to happen. Think shutters; boarding etc. minor preps such as fuel, food, water are taken care of. The largest variable now seems to be time and we are running short.

Additionally- evacuation of the keys is now likely off the table as an executable option so EOC managers have a tough few days ahead if thing shifts more west and cuts the keys off from the mainland...

[ozonepete]

Come on people, 18z GFS says the 12z Euro is not that crazy.

18Z has a loop from Hatteras back down to Florida???

[TheStormExpert]

Come on people, 18z GFS says the 12z Euro is not that crazy.

18Z has a loop from Hatteras back down to Florida???

Nope, not even close.

[stormreader]

i watching to see hurr watch go down to miami or dade some you know by it by 11pm

I think it should happen.

[M_0331]

Just spoke to a relative 2 miles from the shore in Charleston. They are under mandatory evacuation.

Read my post on pg 288. Tell your relatives to look at live5news.com for Charleston Evac plans or scdmv.org.

Again Evacation to start tomorrow at 3pm per Governor, she will make final Evacation order tomorrow morning.

Edisto Island & most Barrier/or on near coast areas have already issued final Evac orders by county governments for 3 pm tomorrow.

Charleston city government have not ordered any Evacation yet- they are basically following Governor plans.

Personally if relatives are in Actual town of Charleston or either side of Cooper or Ashley River below where US 526 crosses Cooper & Ashley River, they should be in final plans to leave early tomorrow due to I-26 backing up(of course you can advise them with your valued opinion about storm projection in the morning). I-26 will reverse lanes when state gives final orders.
Local Charleston county government project surge to go 20 miles up Cooper & Ashley Rivers or to Dam at end of Tailrace Canal , I realize that may seem unrealistic but theoretical feasible.
Eddie

[ozonepete]

Come on people, 18z GFS says the 12z Euro is not that crazy.

18Z has a loop from Hatteras back down to Florida???

Nope, not even close.

That was a rhetorical question, lol.

[stormreader]

A question about preparedness: For those of us on the Southwest coast of Florida think Sarasota and points South... how far west of a shift would need to be forecast before major preps would need to happen. Think shutters; boarding etc. minor preps such as fuel, food, water are taken care of. The largest variable now seems to be time and we are running short.

Additionally- evacuation of the keys is now likely off the table as an executable option so EOC managers have a tough few days ahead if thing shifts more west and cuts the keys off from the mainland...

You are so right, I think, about concerns in the keys and SW FL. I don't think there's been enough focus your way. One more decent shift west and you guys are in the serious ballgame.

[Michele B]

The last Euro has to be about the most insane forcast I have seen.

Takes out KSC, Savannah, and the southern burbs of Charleston.
Goes back into the Bahamas.
Then another run across Florida into the GOM.

Just got home from work.

WTH DID I miss?!?!?!
Can someone give me the link to THAT model?

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

Oh, ok. Thanks!