ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vdogg]

Must be the 4th run in a row that the GFS is one tick from "official" landfall but curls out just in time...also the NE threat is completely gone (despite what the NHC says). Still a terrible run.

You can in no way make that determination for the NE this far out. The models have gone back and forth on that for days now. Florida is locked in, anything past Florida is still subject to significant error.

[WHYB630]

Slowed down from 138 to 150

[HurrMark]

Must be the 4th run in a row that the GFS is one tick from "official" landfall but curls out just in time...also the NE threat is completely gone (despite what the NHC says). Still a terrible run.

You can in no way make that determination for the NE this far out. The models have gone back and forth on that for days now. Florida is locked in, anything past Florida is still subject to significant error.

Was referring to the GFS...not the actual track. Although I am very much surprised that the NHC continues to take it up to New England with no support from the EC nor GFS op or ensembles

[TimeZone]

Matthew appeared to be terrified of all land on that run. He even runs away from Nova Scotia as an extratropical storm around 6 days from now.

[sma10]

This may have been addressed earlier, but with the 12z Euro, can anyone who has the smaller time interval run describe what happens between hrs 48-72? Angle of attack is so huge here - what happens between southern Andros and Fort Pierce? Is it a straight line or does Matthew get very close to MIA/FLL coast?

[srva80]

When does the 18z GFDL run?

[Raebie]

When does the 18z GFDL run?

An hour ago.

[ava_ati]

Our local weatherman (Jacksonville) has been touting that a stalled front that is currently driving rain off of the Atlantic right now will keep this from making landfall, as long as the front holds. Do these particular models take that in to account?

[adam0983]

It may hit the coast in south Florida and then go off the coast in northern Florida

[AutoPenalti]

Our local weatherman (Jacksonville) has been touting that a stalled front that is currently driving rain off of the Atlantic right now will keep this from making landfall, as long as the front holds. Do these particular models take that in to account?

It would be the trough in this case, but so far that isn't happening yet.

[srva80]

When does the 18z GFDL run?

An hour ago.

Not seeing 18z on tropical tidbits.. have a link?

Haven't seen much talk of the 12z making landfall in southern palm beach county (maybe I missed it)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016100412&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=486

[centuryv58]

it looks like it will be a relatively weak storm in terms of wind MB by the time it hits

I don't believe many are thinking that, aliough hold that thought for good karma!

[ava_ati]

Our local weatherman (Jacksonville) has been touting that a stalled front that is currently driving rain off of the Atlantic right now will keep this from making landfall, as long as the front holds. Do these particular models take that in to account?

It would be the trough in this case, but so far that isn't happening yet.

Thanks for the answer, is the trough breaking down in the model runs or just not affecting it?

[WHYB630]

it looks like it will be a relatively weak storm in terms of wind MB by the time it hits

No, in hi res it shows 943mb right before landfall
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png

[Raebie]

When does the 18z GFDL run?

An hour ago.

Not seeing 18z on tropical tidbits.. have a link?

Haven't seen much talk of the 12z making landfall in southern palm beach county (maybe I missed it)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016100412&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=486

It's right there on your link.

[RL3AO]

Our local weatherman (Jacksonville) has been touting that a stalled front that is currently driving rain off of the Atlantic right now will keep this from making landfall, as long as the front holds. Do these particular models take that in to account?

It would be the trough in this case, but so far that isn't happening yet.

Thanks for the answer, is the trough breaking down in the model runs or just not affecting it?

1) He's wrong about it being any front off the east coast that turns it.
2) The shortwave trough that will turn it is located west of Seattle right now.
3) Please move further discussion about what will impact the storm to the discussion thread.

[srva80]

An hour ago.

Not seeing 18z on tropical tidbits.. have a link?

Haven't seen much talk of the 12z making landfall in southern palm beach county (maybe I missed it)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016100412&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=486

It's right there on your link.

WTH.. it says 12z on my screen

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z HWRF coming in a bit SW of the 12Z run:

[Alyono]

HWRF has shifted to directly over Nassau as a cat 4. Significant SW shift

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM has Miami for landfall: