ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z NAVGEM has Miami for landfall:
https://s21.postimg.org/lrruvqi5z/nvg10 ... oplant.gif

Navgem has been veeeeery persistent on a southern florida landfall for a long time now.....


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[dukeblue219]

it looks like it will be a relatively weak storm in terms of wind MB by the time it hits

Which "landfall" are you referring to? It's still in the 940s or 950s on this model run. I wouldn't call that weak exactly.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF is another lawn ornament coming in just offshore Canaveral as a 936 mb.
Miami still just line slap this run.

[miamijaaz]

NAVGEM is at least persistent, you gotta give it that.

[one wolf]

Okay so for those of us on the North Carolina Crystal Coast (the islands around Morehead City), it sure looks to me like our risk has gone from "wait and see" because it was going to swing east of us to "board up the windows!" 48 hours ago now to "wait and see" again because it sure looks to me like this track keeps swinging west as the models slowly get their hands around the idea that this trough won't influence Matthew as much as initially projected.

I live in Morehead but I'm out of town this week. Yesterday I was ready to change my plans and return Thursday to board up. Now I'm thinking wait and see again. Am I off base?

[adam0983]

This storm is very real does any model miss the Florida coast at this time.

[ZX12R]

This storm is very real does any model miss the Florida coast at this time.

This is starting to look like a very serious Florida event.

[ConvergenceZone]

Due to all of the west trends of all the models, I expect the NHC to shift the track west with the next advisory. Tonight's models will be interesting. Next EURO doesn't run until 10:45 PST right?

[adam0983]

My shutters will be up tomorrow morning. What should eastern boca raton expect right now.

[wxman57]

NAVGEM is at least persistent, you gotta give it that.

Yes, it is persistently the worst model in the world for tropical cyclones.

On another note, I see that the EC ensembles are nothing at all like the operational run. They're very much like the 18Z GFS.

[AdamFirst]

Due to all of the west trends of all the models, I expect the NHC to shift the track west with the next advisory. Tonight's models will be interesting. Next EURO doesn't run until 10:45 PST right?

That is correct

[DESTRUCTION5]

Due to all of the west trends, I expect the NHC to shift the track west with the next advisory,.

I don't think it changes much ..18z GFS still keeps it offshore. And they will wait to see if 00z follows suite.

[wxman57]

This storm is very real does any model miss the Florida coast at this time.

Can't tell if you're asking a question or making a statement. Punctuation would help.

[Nimbus]

My shutters will be up tomorrow morning. What should eastern boca raton expect right now.

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 22(70) 2(72) X(72)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 20(41) 2(43) X(43)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) X(24)

[chris_fit]

NAVGEM is at least persistent, you gotta give it that.

Yes, it is persistently the worst model in the world for tropical cyclones.

On another note, I see that the EC ensembles are nothing at all like the operational run. They're very much like the 18Z GFS.

Can you post a pic? What are your thoughts on FL landfall? Think it can go further west?

[adam0983]

It was a question wxman57 sorry about my grammar.

[sancholopez]

NAVGEM is at least persistent, you gotta give it that.

Yes, it is persistently the worst model in the world for tropical cyclones.

On another note, I see that the EC ensembles are nothing at all like the operational run. They're very much like the 18Z GFS.

I find it amazing that 5-7 days out, there are posts about being 99% sure it is missing Florida. And here we are with it barreling down on us. Do you find that odd?

[adam0983]

That's the tropics there very unpredictable.

[gatorcane]

Wow

[SFLcane]

57 don't get not including dade in hurricane watch being 20 min away. With such a powerful hurricane and potential wind field expansions and wobbles its a very risky call. Also time table for a TS warning for me please?