ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

So far 0z GFS keeps trending towards the 12z Euro, possible FL east coast landfall.

landfall seems very likely at this time..the ridge is in full expansion mode through at least 48 hours...my north of palm beach prediction is in serious jeopardy as well as my roof tiles and trees..

[mourninbrew]

Second this. My wife is an electrician. She says it is illegal in our state (Michigan) to pull your meter. Only the utility can remove/replace them. They put locking tabs on them here.

It is. But I can also tell you from dealing with FPL EVERY day, the lineman will go right past you if they see a generator running and no transfer switch. Pick your poison, so far every time I have pulled the meter the lineman have been appreciative, and I am not in jail..

OK. Maybe you should include that in your article.

I am a lineman, on the way to the east coast... Pull the can, nobody will say anything. And it may save an apprentices life or some lineman that's not on top of his game... You know working to turn your power on 17 hours a day and then some. Just my two cents! Cheers

[stormreader]

I talked to my parents in Cocoa Beach....urged them to board up. Not sure if evacuation is necessary(despite the mando evac starting tomorrow afternoon). We have seen a few storms, but this seems like this could be really bad, likely worse than Francis and Jeanne of '04.

.

Yes, that is affirmative, worse than both.

Yes, much worse if this comes in as a Cat 4. Those other storms were Cat 2, I believe. You have to understand how much more power there is in the storm when it's 2 whole categories stronger! This is assuming it comes in as a Cat 4, and if you were about the same distance from the center that you were for the others.

[SeGaBob]

Latest GFS shifting east up here...I expect a 100 mile shift east at 5am, therefore putting me in the clear.

[jlauderdal]

Palm Beach County Schools are in full session tomorrow - parents & teachers unhappy according to WPTV

haha,, how do you think the kids feel..school should be in session, no weather problems tomorrow..however, if your kid can hoist panels keep them home..thats the deal i made with my daughter..hang panels or go to school,you have the power to call your own shots...i bet an air conditioned classroom never looked so good

[stephen23]

Matt appears to be moving NE at the moment. Quickest path the water for sure

[Chris_in_Tampa]

First sonde in eye over water after Cuba:

960mb, 4 knots of surface wind

[baitism]

Just got over the water and already ramping back up. I still think this reaches cat 5 sometime in the next 48 hours.

[stephen23]

First sonde in eye over water after Cuba:

960mb, 4 knots of surface wind

SO a raise of 10mb from land with Cuba?

[drewschmaltz]

What the !?!? 126 hours from now still a major moving SW.

"Could south Florida get hit?"
"You mean the first time or second time?"

[JarrodB]

Yes, much worse if this comes in as a Cat 4. Those other storms were Cat 2, I believe. You have to understand how much more power there is in the storm when it's 2 whole categories stronger! This is assuming it comes in as a Cat 4, and if you were about the same distance from the center that you were for the others.

I am well aware, studied meteorology before joining the Navy, even used to surf contests with Aric Dunn.

It is looking grim for my hometown....

We'll know a lot more tomorrow, as I wrote, wait and see.

[AdamFirst]

This GFS run is flippin' nuts.

[cdavis6287]

My goodness... Allot of stuff in here to digest. I've watched the news, TWC ect. Best guess for date and time of possible effects and winds Daytona might be dealing with?? God bless and thanks.

[AdamFirst]

My goodness... Allot of stuff in here to digest. I've watched the news, TWC ect. Best guess for date and time of possible effects and winds Daytona might be dealing with?? God bless and thanks.

During the day on Friday for Daytona Beach. Expect TS conditions - hurricane conditions may very well be there too

[Chris_in_Tampa]

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30° to 210° (NNE to SSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

[drewschmaltz]

My goodness... Allot of stuff in here to digest. I've watched the news, TWC ect. Best guess for date and time of possible effects and winds Daytona might be dealing with?? God bless and thanks.

During the day on Friday for Daytona Beach. Expect TS conditions - hurricane conditions may very well be there too

And then again in 170 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30° to 210° (NNE to SSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

ERC going on

[Alyono]

perhaps the best case now is simply to hit Florida the FIRST time, so there are not two impacts from Matthew

[Nate-Gillson]

Hour 168 shows Matthew hitting the Bahamas a second time from the east.

[jhpigott]

This GFS run is flippin' nuts.

At this rate NHC should just keep hurricane warnings up along FL east coast for the next week