ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Dean4Storms]

These model runs are flush full of NOAA Jet missions and the increased balloon releases, they should be getting dialed in on the ridge now. Think this is about it as far as any big west shift.

Sure but now you don't need a big west shift to landfall in FL.

Yea, I am not talking about what the storm might actually do but what the models are going to see and forecast.

[ronyan]

Is the GFS wanting to pull that crazy euro loop thing also?

Something like that, looks like it may try and destroy Nicole on the way.

[Kingarabian]

Might be doing the loop that the Euro showed.

[MississippiWx]

South of east now. This is getting interesting.

Lol.

I commented about 4 days ago for everyone to get their anxiety meds refilled for this one. Most accurate prediction I've made.

[WHYB630]

So far it is worse than Euro's case because Matt maintains some strength when he loops
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_20.png

[drewschmaltz]

GFS calls for a Matthew to still be a major hurricane almost a week from now! It already holds a record!

[Mouton]

To the naked eye, the 0z GFS run at Jax has the storm a smidge right of the previous run. The motion seems a bit slower than the previous one also. If it pans out, it keeps the eye wall and most of the sustained hurricane winds offshore from Atlantic Beach north in Florida.

Given how bad the NHC projection at 11 was for us here, I will do a wishcast for the GFS run.

Still, plan for the worse, hope for the best.

Stay safe and heed all evac warnings sure to come up tomorrow sometime.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

A little off topic sorry Mod's,

Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.

[tolakram]

Rapidly going into GFS fantasy land now.

[HurricaneEric]

Hold on... weren't the BAMS models the first ones to sniff out, not only the west shifts towards Florida, but this loop thing too???

[Kingarabian]

If that loop verifies, I think 70 ACE units from Matthew is not out the question.

[stormreader]

With these shifts wests we are seeing with the models, it is not out of the realm of possibility this could even landfall near West Palm Beach or further south down the coast of Palm Beach County. Even Broward County is not off the table though would be surprised it landfalls that far south.

Gator, it could easily landfall south of there. Let's see the angle it takes coming off the Cuban coast, and of course check our model runs tomorrow. Definitely possible for further west shifts, landfall further south than now expected.

[tolakram]

Of course it's deepening again, why not. And why not do a dance with Nicole as well.

[PTrackerLA]

Ok what, turns SOUTH at 126 hours?!

[Alyono]

If that loop verifies, I think 70 ACE units from Matthew is not out the question.

if the loop occurs as an intense hurricane, 100 ACE is in play

[ronyan]

Ok what, turns SOUTH at 126 hours?!

Sure looks like the loop to me.

[Raebie]

WTH. I don't even know what to tell my kid in Wilmington now.

[WHYB630]

strengthening t@120 ..... -_-''

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png

[sma10]

Good grief, now all 3 top models (Euro, UK, and gfs) are showing the southern loop? All around the 120 hr mark. Lol - what is the nhc supposed to do with this?

[Mouton]

Bastardi was talking about a loop earlier this week. Frankly I have seen enough of Matt and it has not been here for its first run yet. Hope it goes to hell.