ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WHYB630]

Nothing is worse than getting 2 MHs landfall in few days? No.
Getting hit by the SAME MH in few days is the worst

[Hurricaneman]

LOL WHAT IS THIS???

The pattern would be sufficient for something like this to happen but is scary and weird

[caneseddy]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 74.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2016 0 20.1N 74.2W 972 70
1200UTC 05.10.2016 12 21.6N 74.8W 981 63
0000UTC 06.10.2016 24 23.1N 76.0W 982 57
1200UTC 06.10.2016 36 24.9N 77.6W 979 54
0000UTC 07.10.2016 48 26.7N 79.2W 974 61
1200UTC 07.10.2016 60 28.9N 80.6W 968 60
0000UTC 08.10.2016 72 30.9N 80.8W 967 62
1200UTC 08.10.2016 84 32.8N 80.1W 975 52
0000UTC 09.10.2016 96 33.4N 78.1W 990 46
1200UTC 09.10.2016 108 33.9N 76.2W 996 49
0000UTC 10.10.2016 120 32.4N 75.1W 1002 51
1200UTC 10.10.2016 132 30.6N 75.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 11.10.2016 144 28.9N 78.3W 1007 37

East shift? Looks like the center never makes it over Florida if I'm plotting it right.

If an east shift very minimal..still has it brushing the coast...oh and it also has the loop

[Steve]

198 with Miami in the crosshairs from possibly SSE.

[tolakram]

Moving NW now, wonder if it will miss Florida again.

[sma10]

You want to see something cool? The 36 hr position is almost exactly the same as the 186 hr position!

[SouthernBreeze]

I wonder what these models are picking up on that would make Matt do this??
** could , as we know it won't happen

[drewschmaltz]

204hr still no CONUS landfall but a SFL stall out.

198 - 210 sit and spin.

[SunnyThoughts]

hour 204 creeping towards the keys.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is this the original run or the so call ed loop run?

[AdamFirst]

Monster cane ducking WSW into the Florida Straits in fantasy land. This model is on drugs.

[WeatherEmperor]

LoL!!!!!!!!




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[hurricaneCW]

If Matthew continues to trend slower or further SW then the loop would not be as wide as the gfs shows. I think this is legit as a strong zonal flow envelops the CONUS with nothing that can turn Matthew NE.

[OntarioEggplant]

As a meteorologist (yes I know I still need to grab my transcript for you guys), I can't even deal with this right now.

In seriousness, note how the UKMET weakens it like the Euro did on the loop. While the GFS is entertaining, the intensity truth most likely lies in the middle. One can argue in this scenario it may be similar to Jeanne... Have a better chance of strengthening once it settles on a westward heading.

[ronyan]

You want to see something cool? The 36 hr position is almost exactly the same as the 186 hr position!

Yeah at 336 it will be loading up for round 3...

[Mouton]

One of the storms I think in 04 did a loop and hit the US twice. My recollection is foggy, help me out.

Was it Ivan?? Exited off Atlantic and came back around into GOM much weaker?

Yes, thanks

[sma10]

Moving NW now, wonder if it will miss Florida again.

Yep, this time warnings definitely for Dade.

[Steve]

I wonder what these models are picking up on that would make Matt do this??
** could , as we know it won't happen

High pressure and warm Atlantic water.

[tolakram]

[AdamFirst]

Any map plots for the UKMET run?