ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Steve]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

its a real possibility just look at the synoptic setup as it would lend to a loop

Oh it absolutely is. And I'm not calling for it. But what changed in the GFS late run is that there is still more ridging and a zonal flow across the US without much of a break. So it would probably loop even one more time or at least get blocked before being absorbed or whatever. I don't know. Like I said, no call either way. But science is better than facebook.

[sma10]

And just in time after Matt's departure, note on the last frames a nice large disturbance starting to get amped up in the southern Caribbean.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am no pro met but from an amateur it seems about the same, of course I could be wrong.

[sponger]

I have no words.

[bamajammer4eva]

Gfs animated zoomed off Florida

http://i.imgur.com/nUgZ0O4.jpg

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[melhow]

Everyone thought the Jeanne modeling was a fluke until she blew my front door in following her Atlantic loopy-loop. Loops are real!

[SouthFloridawx]

Everyone thought the Jeanne modeling was a fluke until she blew my front door in following her Atlantic loopy-loop. Loops are real!

I was thinking the same thing.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Night everyone need to work in a few hours, I guess I will look at the Euro when i get up, hope I don't get any surprise.

[sma10]

Amazing: if you loop the CMC, Matthew and Nicole eventually merge, and literally give birth to a new system that develops around Bermuda.

[SunnyThoughts]

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 16m16 minutes ago


The real kicker is the 0z GFS had 20 dropsondes & 20 extras RAOBS in it. #Matthew

[WHYB630]

Amazing: if you loop the CMC, Matthew and Nicole eventually merge, and literally give birth to a new system that develops around Bermuda.

note that CMC develops everything....

[SeGaBob]

I can't wait for the models to show Matthew moving east in the open Atlantic, move over the Azores like Nadine, then head south to Cape Verde, then head west to the Caribbean again.

I've been wondering about that for a while...has that ever happened?

[melhow]

Amazing: if you loop the CMC, Matthew and Nicole eventually merge, and literally give birth to a new system that develops around Bermuda.

The Grand Banks ain't no joke in October.

[Steve]

Amazing: if you loop the CMC, Matthew and Nicole eventually merge, and literally give birth to a new system that develops around Bermuda.

note that CMC develops everything....

Yeah, but it's not a throw away model either. It may be too far east with the loop if one was to occur. But it looks pretty plausible the way it depicts the much weaker lower center coming back down with the top heading out to sea with the boundary.

[WeatherEmperor]

So the Gfs shifted slightly west but the Ukmet shifted slightly east...almost on top of the NHC track. Lets see what the Euro shows but unless the Tvcn consensus moved west, the NHC will probably keep the track the same 5am


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[meriland23]

I'm anticipating this upcoming Euro more than any other one before given what the GFS just laid on us..

[Steve]

I can't wait for the models to show Matthew moving east in the open Atlantic, move over the Azores like Nadine, then head south to Cape Verde, then head west to the Caribbean again.

I've been wondering about that for a while...has that ever happened?

Sorry for the derail, but probably not quite. There was a storm a couple decades ago (I think that's how long) that lasted over a month in the North Atlantic.

Nevermind. It was 3 weeks (Alberto in 2000 I was thinking of. Nadine in 2012 actually lasted 22 days). Record is 27.75 days from 8/1899

[sma10]

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 16m16 minutes ago


The real kicker is the 0z GFS had 20 dropsondes & 20 extras RAOBS in it. #Matthew

And 20 shots of tequila.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks Steve, perhaps I should start a thread about that so it won't clog this thread anymore.

[SouthFloridawx]

I can't wait for the models to show Matthew moving east in the open Atlantic, move over the Azores like Nadine, then head south to Cape Verde, then head west to the Caribbean again.

I've been wondering about that for a while...has that ever happened?

Sorry for the derail, but probably not quite. There was a storm a couple decades ago (I think that's how long) that lasted over a month in the North Atlantic.

Nevermind. It was 3 weeks (Alberto in 2000 I was thinking of. Nadine in 2012 actually lasted 22 days). Record is 27.75 days from 8/1899

Greatest duration
Sources: NOAA HRD,[73] NHC[74]
Duration
(days) Name Date
27.75 Hurricane San Ciriaco¶ August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22.25 Hurricane Nadine¶ September 2012
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
21 Storm 4 September 1926
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Storm 9 September 1893
20.25 Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000