ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 16m16 minutes ago


The real kicker is the 0z GFS had 20 dropsondes & 20 extras RAOBS in it. #Matthew

which means it finally got the hint ? lol

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS ensemble mean shows a loop also though it didn't get as far south and west through hr 186

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[dexterlabio]

MJO signal is expected to strengthen in the Western Hemisphere in the next two weeks... perhaps Matthew will be enjoying all that privilege as seen in this GFS run.

At least 00z didn't go way crazier like Matthew entering the gulf of Mexico or something...

[FLpanhandle91]

Can anyone comment on when SST's around the Bahamas become unsupportive of a storm on that magnitude around hour 186 - 240?

[tolakram]

GEFS, showing just how bad this run was.

[chaser1]

Upcoming Euro should bring us back to reality....I hope....

When the EURO 0Z duplicates that last GFS run, that'll be the "mike drop" for this episode.

[Joe Snow]

Amazing: if you loop the CMC, Matthew and Nicole eventually merge, and literally give birth to a new system that develops around Bermuda.

note that CMC develops everything....

The CMC had the track very close to what eventually happened ( close to the South America Coast and then cut into Haiti and Cuba) from the 26th.

[WeatherEmperor]

Gfdl and Navgem shift east slightly. Both hug the FL east coast now. No more direct landfall.

Unless the Euro shifts west tonight, its gonna be hard for the TVCN consensus to go west...which means its likely the 5am tracks does not go further west. Lets see...


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[Aric Dunn]

GEFS, showing just how bad this run was.

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/wUZ6Mck.gif[/img]

actually its incredibly good till 72 to 84 hours after it starts being affected by the trof.

had pretty good consensus form its members about florida.

[Steve]

Can anyone comment on when SST's around the Bahamas become unsupportive of a storm on that magnitude around hour 186 - 240?

Not sure. I think it would depend on more than just the SST's. We've seen sustained systems with waters around 78F. If there was no shear, even with upwelling, it's probably around 79-80 but you'd probably have to have optimum other conditions such as very high pressure aloft (not hard to do in the W Atlantic as Jacksonville often is like 30.4 whereas we almost never see that but in the coldest of high pressure systems in the winter. Almost time for ECMWF.

[tolakram]

0z ECMWF init

[SunnyThoughts]

Euro initialized

[SouthFloridawx]

964mb too. Pretty close to the last VDM

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[LarryWx]

Can anyone comment on when SST's around the Bahamas become unsupportive of a storm on that magnitude around hour 186 - 240?

These high res GFS pressures are ridiculously overdone with their super low pressures imo.

[windnrain]

Euro west at 6h (Wxbell)

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

4 run trend

[SouthFloridawx]

[wxmann_91]

At hr 24 already much further south than yesterday's 0Z run.

[WeatherHoon]

Is this potentially a sign of the Euro coming in further west?