Quite A Scenario!

[capecodder]

Here we haveHurricane Juan, an incredidly active front approaching, and an area off the Carolinas wanting to be a paticipant. The big question, is will they interact, or just go their separate ways. Do we have a "perfect storm" down the road?
Your thoughts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Colin]

I doubt a "PERFECT Storm."

[Derek Ortt]

I dont like that a few of the tropicla models (AF1I and AVNI) bringing this inland between 65.5W and 66.0W. That is only about 50-60 miles east of the U.S/Canadian border


Get a bleeping recon inot Juan. Strike probs are over 20% for eastern Maine. Divert tomorrow's Carib flight into Juan, please!

[wxman57]

You have to understand how strike probabilities are created. Highest probabilities will ALWAYS be for whatever land area is closest to a storm - even if the storm is moving away from a location. The reason is that Juan could not hit anywhere else but the east coast if it hit land in 24 hours (assuming it turned left). Simple as that. But Juan isn't moving in that direction.

Proabilities aren't based upon any atmospheric dynamics, they're based upon climatology, to a degree. It's really goofy how they develop those probabilities. You'd think they actually look at the weather charts and calculate the actual chances that, given the current steering currents, a storm would go in a certain direction, but that isn't necessarily the case. Basically, those probabilities are next to worthless as a numerical value.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like to have it changed from the 10-year climo garbage that is currently used. It is creating a false impression that Juan is as likely to hit Maine as Nova Scotia, which isnt the case (at least as of 2100 UTC, 9/28)

It may be close enough though to bring some wind and rain, though the brunt should be in maine and new brunswick