ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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abajan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6381 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:58 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'm surprised the NHC brought Matthew down to 100 knots. Dropsonde at 11:17 UTC showed 114 knots. I guess they think it's a gust or bad data. Regardless, don't become complacent about the current weakening as it's likely that trend will reverse and may already be reversing based on IR.

Notice how in the public advisory they didn't mention that it had weakened.. They just stated that the maximum sustained winds were now 115 mph. Smart move.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6382 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:59 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Yep, angle of approach means everything. I fear we're in for a heckuva a ride up here on the Treasure Coast.


I'm venturing out to Winn Dixie later today. Hoping they have the 5 gallon jugs of water for water coolers - though honestly I highly doubt they will
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6383 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:00 am

SeGaBob wrote:Doesn't seem as bad for GA anymore...


The forecast point in three days only moved a small amount of miles away from Georgia. The risk is essentially unchanged.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6384 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:01 am

AdamFirst wrote:My stepmother trekked to Winn Dixie here in Port Saint Lucie and they were completely out of water and many non-perishables were running low. She came home with Bagel Thins - the only bread she could find.


Walgreens in palm city just got a delivery of water. Not sure how long it will last but its not far from you.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6385 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:01 am

abajan wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:I have no words....06z GFS loops back for 2nd landfall in Central Florida area. 150 hr timeframe.


Unbelievable!! We could be talking about Matthew well into next week.

Yes but according to Levi Cowan's most recent video, if it loops back, it would likely be much weaker by the time it heads back to the coast. (He mentions this at 12:48).


I am aware that the cyclone could be substantially weaker than it is now. I was just mainly pointing and jhighlighting that this entity will be hanging around possibly well into next week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6386 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:02 am

I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6387 Postby ronyan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:02 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:Doesn't seem as bad for GA anymore...


The forecast point in three days only moved a small amount of miles away from Georgia. The risk is essentially unchanged.


Yeah, much of the interaction with GA occurs after 72 hrs so it's really not that clear what will happen.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6388 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:03 am

newtotex wrote:This could be a stupid question, but why does Florida not do that Guam did after Super Typhoon Pamela? All wooden buildings were replaced with concrete (essentially ICF homes) and all utility poles are either concrete or have been moved underground.

It seems like it would be a good idea for those who are not able to evacuate



$$$$ plus most people don't like concrete homes. But eventually I see that new codes one day will be that homes along the immediate coast will have to be concrete and on concrete stilts. I know that on many areas along the west coast of FL new homes have to be on stilts elevated.
What I don't understand is mobile home communities so close to the coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6389 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:04 am

Shuriken wrote:
NDG wrote:Matthew is definitely wasting no time to reorganize, a definite NNW heading has begun.

Image
That is some nice imagery; could you share the URL for the source?


http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... p200Km.gif
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6390 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:04 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Folks under the hurricane warning in Florida need to complete their preparations TODAY, if they haven't done so already. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Thursday and you do not want to be caught out unprepared as the winds and rain pick up. Remember, it is not necessary for the center of the storm to come ashore at your location for your area to experience hurricane conditions! Since the storm will be approaching at an angle almost parallel to the coastline, a large swath of FL could experience hurricane-force winds. Hurricane Matthew is, and will likely continue to be, a powerful hurricane at the time of its closest approach. Please take this seriously and listen to your local emergency management.


Im on the treasure coast. I plan on working for a few hours this morning then making the rounds to put up shutters for my family.


Be safe out there my friend...from one Treasure Coast forum member to another.


Thank you. Stay safe yourself! I decided not to work. My grandmother in boynton needs shutters up too so im going to do that instead.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6391 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:04 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:NNW motion has commenced @ 8am. All about the angle of pursuit now...


Yep, angle of approach means everything. I fear we're in for a heckuva a ride up here on the Treasure Coast.


Indeed. .5° west shift = eyewall....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6392 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:05 am

Scorpion wrote:I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.


Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6393 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:05 am

Very healthy 8C Core Temp

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 11:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°25'N 74°46'W (21.4167N 74.7667W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6394 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:05 am

Scorpion wrote:I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.


Thats a very scary thought. I hope you are very wrong.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6395 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:06 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:My stepmother trekked to Winn Dixie here in Port Saint Lucie and they were completely out of water and many non-perishables were running low. She came home with Bagel Thins - the only bread she could find.


Walgreens in palm city just got a delivery of water. Not sure how long it will last but its not far from you.


Walgreens on Kanner and Salerno has a ton too. Was just there.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6396 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:06 am

Blown Away wrote: Image
Looks like Matt slightly SW and ahead of the 09z point...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6397 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:07 am

Eye appears to be coming back up on IR

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6398 Postby ronyan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:07 am

pgoss11 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.


Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.


It's possible it does become that strong, but I would think more like 125 kt. The NHC is playing it very conservative with intensity as they have for a while now with Matthew. They were only showing a 5 mph increase during the period. It has not been the most accurate official forecast.
Last edited by ronyan on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6399 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:07 am

Blown Away wrote:
Blown Away wrote: Image
Looks like Matt slightly SW and ahead of the 09z point...


8:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 5
Location: 21.5°N 74.9°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph


Rounding the corner and going to make the run...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6400 Postby ricka47 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:08 am

AdamFirst wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Yep, angle of approach means everything. I fear we're in for a heckuva a ride up here on the Treasure Coast.


I'm venturing out to Winn Dixie later today. Hoping they have the 5 gallon jugs of water for water coolers - though honestly I highly doubt they will


WalMart and Winn DIxie here on Amelia Island out of water. I did find a good supply at Publix though.
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