ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

Matthew is way southwest of forecast by 25 miles should not of made that turn till noonish

Not seeing that. Posting graphic in the discussion thread.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Matthew is way southwest of forecast by 25 miles should not of made that turn till noonish

It's right on track I would say.

[Vdogg]

06z of CMC, HWRF, and GFDL all seem to be north of the NHC track hugging the coast until Hatteras before OTS as a strong Hurricane. Would not be surprised to see a "slight" shift north on the NHC track past 72 hours. SEVA and NC are still very much in play.

[otowntiger]

Well that 6z run should cause some commotion.

Sorry, could you elaborate? What model run and what about it would cause the commotion?
Thanks in advance!

[hurricaneCW]

06z of CMC, HWRF, and GFDL all seem to be north of the NHC track hugging the coast until Hatteras before OTS as a strong Hurricane. Would not be surprised to see a "slight" shift north on the NHC track past 72 hours. SEVA and NC are still very much in play.

Perhaps but I'd rather trust the Euro than those models as it has easily been the most accurate well over 5 days. It makes the others look like a joke.

[Vdogg]

06z of CMC, HWRF, and GFDL all seem to be north of the NHC track hugging the coast until Hatteras before OTS as a strong Hurricane. Would not be surprised to see a "slight" shift north on the NHC track past 72 hours. SEVA and NC are still very much in play.

Perhaps but I'd rather trust the Euro than those models as it has easily been the most accurate well over 5 days. It makes the others look like a joke.

I would tend to agree however it has had wide variations with this storm past 72 hrs. 2 days ago the euro had this storm meander in the Bahamas and dissipate. Just yesterday morning it had the storm rake the NC coast and the OTS. Wide variability. Some of the lesser known models tend to pick up trends first but have trouble resolving a final track. This may be the start of a north trend past 72 hours.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The HWRF was still taking this east of the Bahamas yesterday. It's been right biased with the storm.

[emeraldislenc]

Do the models now show a closer track to NC

[Ken711]

Can someone post a graphic showing the latest combined modeling tracks.

[KBBOCA]

Just caught up with the 00Z models. Wow. Crazy loop. Looks like this storm will keep many of us glued to Storm 2K for a while yet.

Can I just make a suggestion when folks talk about the models shifting further west / further east?
In some cases a single model can do BOTH: i.e.. further west TOWARD Florida east coast, but further east AWAY from the Carolinas.
I think that's where a lot of the recent confusion "it's going east!" "no it's going west" has come from. People are focused on different parts of the track...

Just a suggestion to avoid needless arguments!

[WeatherEmperor]

Can someone post a graphic showing the latest combined modeling tracks.

Here you go. I hope this helps.




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[RL3AO]

Do the models now show a closer track to NC

If anything the trend is away from NC coast.

[HurrMark]

Just caught up with the 00Z models. Wow. Crazy loop. Looks like this storm will keep many of us glued to Storm 2K for a while yet.

Can I just make a suggestion when folks talk about the models shifting further west / further east?
In some cases a single model can do BOTH: i.e.. further west TOWARD Florida east coast, but further east AWAY from the Carolinas.
I think that's where a lot of the recent confusion "it's going east!" "no it's going west" has come from. People are focused on different parts of the track...

Just a suggestion to avoid needless arguments!

This is very true. Geography is key. Keep in mind that south Florida's coast is at 80W, while north Florida is beyond 81W. So a more northerly track would mean it would have to gain more longitude if it were to make landfall in Florida. However, the further north it gets, the more of a likelihood of a landfall in other states as it makes the turn. So if the most western longitude it gets is 80, if it hits it at 26N vs. 31N, that would make a world of difference.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.

[RL3AO]

Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.

"a good chance" let's just say that's 70%. Just throwing out a number. That means a 30% chance a major hurricane makes landfall. That is a huge risk.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.

"a good chance" let's just say that's 70%. Just throwing out a number. That means a 30% chance a major hurricane makes landfall. That is a huge risk.

True. But I feel the outlook better, because before the models were showing Matthew ripping up the entire East Coastline. That's no longer forecasted

[HurrMark]

Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.

Most of the models, except the TVCN and perhaps the UK ones can be thrown out...they are good only in the deep tropics.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.

Most of the models, except the TVCN and perhaps the UK ones can be thrown out...they are good only in the deep tropics.

But I'm also looking at the NHC forecast. That's the main thing I go by

[HurrMark]

Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.

Most of the models, except the TVCN and perhaps the UK ones can be thrown out...they are good only in the deep tropics.

But I'm also looking at the NHC forecast. That's the main thing I go by

Ah OK. Well, we will find out if anything changed at 11...doubt it but as usual it will be interesting.

[Vdogg]

Do the models now show a closer track to NC

Certain models yes, but not the gfs or euro. The 12z runs will be telling.