ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is moving south of model forecasts, uh oh... Up in intensity. Coming back quickly.

I don't see this as south of model forecasts. I don't see any reason do doubt the NHC forecast.

Its going to stair step for the next 36 hrs...Problem is a 30 mile wobble could equal Eye wall for the coast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TS force wind probabilities went up for GA but the track is further offshore. Why would that be?

Cause its closer physically.

[northjaxpro]

Question for the Jax folks on here: my brother lives about 4 miles inland from Jax beach (Hodges Blvd) in a brick house.
Would you stay, or head over here to Tallahassee? Thanks

I would tell your brother to get out. I am very familiar with that area of town. He is just inland from the Intracoastal Waterway and with the eyewall forecast to get right at the coast or even landfall, I personally would leave being that close to the Beaches region.

I am going through a similar situation, but I am inland about. 20 miles inland from the coast. Still weighing to leave my home and head inland, but leaning to ride out the storm (with unsettling trepedation)

[sponger]

TS force wind probabilities went up for GA but the track is further offshore. Why would that be?

Larger wind field.

[Michele B]

Actually, per NWS, Orange County is under a Hurricane Watch.

I stand corrected, Hurricane WATCH, and statements have come out saying dangerous conditions.

YES, I would board up.

[Sanibel]

Good thing Matthew stays offshore because it is fleshing out and getting ready for business...

[sponger]

Absolute soaking going in in St Augustine today.

[sponger]

Looks like NHC is starting to bite on the loop scenario possibility.

[Michele B]

TS force wind probabilities went up for GA but the track is further offshore. Why would that be?

Tropical Storm Force winds extend out hundreds of miles from the center of the storm. People focus too much on the one point that is the EYE, and forget that there are strong winds around the storm extending out for a long ways.

[sponger]

Question for the Jax folks on here: my brother lives about 4 miles inland from Jax beach (Hodges Blvd) in a brick house.
Would you stay, or head over here to Tallahassee? Thanks

I would stay.

[GlennOBX]

I'm an observer, not a pro. The following is my opinion, and only that.

Looking at the 11am NHC plot, I'm not sure I'm convinced there's going to be THAT much of a curve. I'm not saying NC is going to get hammered with a direct hit by this thing, but I'm not convinced that Matthew makes that much of a turn. Is the NHC now saying that Matthew WON'T make a run and make landfall somewhere close to what was being predicted yesterday?

Ocracoke Island is under a mandatory evacuation order. If this prediction continues, I'm wondering if they won't lift that before this weekend. The Dare and Currituck County governments should be making a decision sometime today. Given what the current thinking appears to be, I don't expect an evac order for up here. I could easily be wrong.

[terstorm1012]

TS force wind probabilities went up for GA but the track is further offshore. Why would that be?

I suspect it will be a larger storm (areal extent wise) by then.

[Blown Away]

JohnMoralesNBC658 secs
5 AM NHC forecast for #Matthew was for 22.3 & 75.3 by 2 PM. At 11 AM actual position 21.8 & 75.2. Crucial to watch short term west tendency.

So likely to be @22.3 at 2pm, but going to be many miles W of the 75.3...

[Michele B]

This is moving south of model forecasts, uh oh... Up in intensity. Coming back quickly.

I don't see this as south of model forecasts. I don't see any reason do doubt the NHC forecast.

Its going to stair step for the next 36 hrs...Problem is a 30 mile wobble could equal Eye wall for the coast.

Good point. A 30 mile wobble made all the difference between Andrew going over Homestead or through downtown Miami.

[Evil Jeremy]

Question for the Jax folks on here: my brother lives about 4 miles inland from Jax beach (Hodges Blvd) in a brick house.
Would you stay, or head over here to Tallahassee? Thanks

I would tell your brother to get out. I am very familiar with that area of town. He is just inland from the Intracoastal Waterway and with the eyewall forecast to get right at the coast or even landfall, I personally would leave being that close to the Beaches region.

I am going through a similar situation, but I am inland about. 20 miles inland from the coast. Still weighing to leave my home and head inland, but leaning to ride out the storm (with unsettling trepedation)

I'll be riding it out in Jax.... My only evac possibilities are Fort Pierce and Fort Lauderdale. I'm about 9 miles inland. If it gets bad enough that my campus (UNF) chooses to evacuate students, they will have a Red Cross shelter.

[N2FSU]

Question for the Jax folks on here: my brother lives about 4 miles inland from Jax beach (Hodges Blvd) in a brick house.
Would you stay, or head over here to Tallahassee? Thanks

I would tell your brother to get out. I am very familiar with that area of town. He is just inland from the Intracoastal Waterway and with the eyewall forecast to get right at the coast or even landfall, I personally would leave being that close to the Beaches region.

I am going through a similar situation, but I am inland about. 20 miles inland from the coast. Still weighing to leave my home and head inland, but leaning to ride out the storm (with unsettling trepedation)

Thanks northjaxpro. That is the way he has been leaning. A lot of his coworkers at Mayo are laughing at his concern and blowing this off. It sounds like some of the local mets there are downplaying the threat and betting the farm on it staying pretty far offshore.

[terstorm1012]

I'm an observer, not a pro. The following is my opinion, and only that.

Looking at the 11am NHC plot, I'm not sure I'm convinced there's going to be THAT much of a curve. I'm not saying NC is going to get hammered with a direct hit by this thing, but I'm not convinced that Matthew makes that much of a turn. Is the NHC now saying that Matthew WON'T make a run and make landfall somewhere close to what was being predicted yesterday?

Ocracoke Island is under a mandatory evacuation order. If this prediction continues, I'm wondering if they won't lift that before this weekend. The Dare and Currituck County governments should be making a decision sometime today. Given what the current thinking appears to be, I don't expect an evac order for up here. I could easily be wrong.

it appears the curve (and loop, as it seems they're buying into the loop) are due to Matthew missing the trough, which is not as sharp as originally forecast. The high is also very strong.

Keep watching but I think NC may get lucky here.

[1900hurricane]

Both microwave data and radar from the NOAA aircraft show a weak western eyewall from the passage over Cuba. If Matthew can shore it up, it'll probably start intensifying fairly steadily once again.

[baitism]

Matthew is really looking good of visible. Not good for FL.

[sponger]

Matthew is really looking good of visible. Not good for FL.

Yep, its getting real!