ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6921 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:36 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
HurrMark wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Looking at that above cluster of models, I still think there is a good chance this will stay off shore, although I think it still could get fairly close to Florida.


Most of the models, except the TVCN and perhaps the UK ones can be thrown out...they are good only in the deep tropics.



But I'm also looking at the NHC forecast. That's the main thing I go by


Keep in mind that any wobble to the west of the NHC track which is highly probable and the FL Coast is in the crosshair and it would not take much of a wobble. That is why the White Cone exists!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6922 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:00 am

I would like to remind everyone of track error. Here are two graphics. One of what the models showed 3 days ago and what they show today.. just something to keep in mind. Track can change. Everyone should remain on high alert in FL and up the coast.

Edit to add: If it verified, Hail UKMET.

Image

Image
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6923 Postby TimeZone » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:06 am

I believe the Euro was the first model to show the loop, a few days ago for a single run. It then backed off the very next run. Everybody was laughing at it.

Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6924 Postby Vdogg » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:08 am

TimeZone wrote:I believe the Euro was the first model to show the loop, a few days ago for a single run. It then backed off the very next run. Everybody was laughing at it.

Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.

UKMET was the first model to show it actually. The euro initially showed a stall in the Bahamas. Euro didn't show a loop till yesterday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6925 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:22 am

BAMD was showing the closer approach to the coast originally as well and everyone discounted it. This goes to show why the NHC uses a blend of models and doesn't depend on just one or two.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6926 Postby Michele B » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:22 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Ken711 wrote:Can someone post a graphic showing the latest combined modeling tracks.



Here you go. I hope this helps.

Image


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk



How high is the confidence that matt will loop once it gets to GA?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6927 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:23 am

TimeZone wrote:Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


Where are you seeing that? Nothing has really changed in the last 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6928 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:25 am

TimeZone wrote:I believe the Euro was the first model to show the loop, a few days ago for a single run. It then backed off the very next run. Everybody was laughing at it.

Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


11am track has Matthew about 20 miles offshore FL east coast. A little tiny W wobble and the eyewall is onshore.

Image


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6929 Postby Vdogg » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:26 am

Michele B wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Ken711 wrote:Can someone post a graphic showing the latest combined modeling tracks.



Here you go. I hope this helps.

Image


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk



How high is the confidence that matt will loop once it gets to GA?

More models are seeing it, but confidence is still low. In
another 24-36 hours if models are still showing that curve I'd say we can be fairly confident.
Last edited by Vdogg on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6930 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:26 am

HurrMark wrote:
TimeZone wrote:Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


Where are you seeing that? Nothing has really changed in the last 12 hours or so.


Correct, nothing has changed.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6931 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:27 am

TimeZone wrote:Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


Did you not see the graphic I posted right before you posted this?
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6932 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:29 am

timezone most of those models aren't good......this is going to come very very close to Florida!!!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6933 Postby Raebie » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:29 am

Is the GFS 12z running yet?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6934 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:30 am

running now its on hour 12
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6935 Postby windnrain » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:30 am

GFS 12z

Image
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6936 Postby TimeZone » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:30 am

HurrMark wrote:
TimeZone wrote:Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


Where are you seeing that? Nothing has really changed in the last 12 hours or so.


The fact that the majority of Computer models put the Center off the coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6937 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:31 am

TimeZone wrote:
HurrMark wrote:
TimeZone wrote:Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


Where are you seeing that? Nothing has really changed in the last 12 hours or so.


The fact that the majority of Computer models put the Center off the coast.



The Euro has a landfall in Florida...
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6938 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:32 am

watch the main models, GFS, EURO, UKMeT, and JMA that's the only models you should be watching and look at the upper pattern on them.......I don't look at really any models.......all those models show a close close hit on florida
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6939 Postby windnrain » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:32 am

This GFS Run is Southwest of the previous one.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6940 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:36 am

TimeZone wrote:
HurrMark wrote:
TimeZone wrote:Anyways, landfall isn't looking too likely in Florida looking at latest models, so that's certainly good news.


Where are you seeing that? Nothing has really changed in the last 12 hours or so.


The fact that the majority of Computer models put the Center off the coast.


Most of them on that plot are useless. Spaghetti plots can be a terrible misleading tool if you don't understand what goes into them.
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