ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6941 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:36 am

:uarrow: Not looking good so far on 12z GFS to avoid FL landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6942 Postby TimeZone » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:36 am

StormingB81 wrote:
TimeZone wrote:
HurrMark wrote:
Where are you seeing that? Nothing has really changed in the last 12 hours or so.


The fact that the majority of Computer models put the Center off the coast.



The Euro has a landfall in Florida...


Odd. I don't recall saying that all models have it off the coast...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6943 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:37 am

36 hrs

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6944 Postby Jevo » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:37 am

Is this the first time we've seen the GFS over Andros?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6945 Postby WeatherHoon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:38 am

This one looks like it could be a Palm Beach hit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6946 Postby sponger » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:39 am

GFS getting awfully close to South Florida!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6947 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:39 am

WeatherHoon wrote:This one looks like it could be a Palm Beach hit.


Seems faster.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6948 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:41 am

Getting Closer @ 42hrs

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6949 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:42 am

Into WPB-Vero at 42 hrs!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6950 Postby Jevo » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:42 am

Looks like we have a landfall solution with the GFS... The last 2 pages of debate seem to be moot with this run

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6951 Postby jhpigott » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:42 am

Aw crud . . . further W right into the treasure coast. Looks like a western eyewall scrape from WPB northward
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6952 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:43 am

we have a landfall!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6953 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:44 am

MELBOURNE @ 48 hours - That's about this time on Friday.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6954 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:45 am

Its slightly inland 10-20 miles near Jupiter FL at 48 hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6955 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:46 am

The runs I've been fearing

What is the intensity of the GFS once it reaches Palm Beach/Treasure Coast?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6956 Postby Jevo » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:48 am

Wellll that escalated quickly.. This GFS run is a doom and gloom scenario especially if that Eastern eyewall starts scraping along the coast.
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6957 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:48 am

Eastern Orlando at 54 hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6958 Postby Ken711 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:49 am

Can someone post the link to the running GFS. Thanks
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6959 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:50 am

Looks VERY bad for Jax.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6960 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:50 am

Nicole also appears to be strengthening and moving SE in the last frame.
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