ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6741 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:17 pm

vbhoutex wrote::uarrow: :uarrow: This is getting very interesting. If I am reading that shear map correctly Matthew he will be moving into higher shear within 24 hours. That could be a game changer if it remains strong as shown. Tell me what I am missing if I am wrong.


Levi Cowan said in a previous video that the shear zone would move west in tandem with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6742 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:19 pm

vbhoutex wrote::uarrow: :uarrow: This is getting very interesting. If I am reading that shear map correctly Matthew he will be moving into higher shear within 24 hours. That could be a game changer if it remains strong as shown. Tell me what I am missing if I am wrong.


The area of lower shear is the system's upper level anticyclone that has been following Matthew. GFS is showing the ULAC moving in tandem with Matthew, which could provide excellent outflow for the system to intensify.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6743 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:19 pm

just getting up after a long night. looks like we have a little northerly shear so thats good.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6744 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:just getting up after a long night. looks like we have a little northerly shear so thats good.


Where are you seeing northerly shear? Outflow looks excellent on all quads as the system is re-establishing itself after its passing with Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6745 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:23 pm

Here is a gif of the upper high moving with Matt

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6746 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:just getting up after a long night. looks like we have a little northerly shear so thats good.


Aric, can u update if Matt moving on track or a bit south... From 5am Matt was a bit SW from the 18z forecast spot?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6747 Postby hurrtracker79 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:26 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6748 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:26 pm

Yeah, whatever shear there is, it is moving in tandem with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6749 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:just getting up after a long night. looks like we have a little northerly shear so thats good.


Aric, can u update if Matt moving on track or a bit south... From 5am Matt was a bit SW from the 18z forecast spot?


it looks pretty close. its going to wobble around and can come in anywhere from south florida to north Florida because of the angle of approach so just prepare.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6750 Postby centuryv58 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:28 pm



Maybe it's the finger!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6751 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:28 pm

Evenstar wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:I'm not downplaying anything...asking a serious question. Quit overreacting to everything I say...


Guys we have been around here a long time. This is a time of tension for you all, I get it, but make sure to be nice...:)


Amen, brutha.


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6752 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:29 pm

Anticyclone is moving in tandum with Matthew. the cyclone is for the time being shielded by the anticyclone and the shear is being kept away from the cyclone right .now. I think conditions for strengthening look good for at least another 36 - 48 hours while Matthew traverses through the Central and NW Bahamas.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6753 Postby hipshot » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:31 pm

tgenius wrote:
Alyono wrote:still looks to have NW shear. Shear wasn't supposed to drop off until tomorrow

Alyono, John Morales, the head met for NBC6 in Miami was saying earlier that Matthew was on a 320 degree heading vs 340, which would put him more WNW than NW.. do you see that, and if so, how long do you think it would keep that bearing? Could he be stair stepping?

That's what I see, about 320 degrees. I appears to have taken that course shortly after it exited western Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6754 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:31 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Michele B wrote:
meriland23 wrote:photo of Matthew as of yesterday, this is kinda freaky..


http://i68.tinypic.com/hukn5u.jpg


Can see the "evil skull face" on the right side everyone was talking about yesterday!

How scary looking is that thing!


I didn't see it yesterday, can't unsee it now though lol.

When I first saw the image yesterday, I didn't notice anything. It's only after I just saw mention of a skull face that it was clear. Every skull has a smile (kind of like how every cat looks like it's smiling) but this one has an extra broad smile and the expression does indeed look evil!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6755 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:32 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:just getting up after a long night. looks like we have a little northerly shear so thats good.


Where are you seeing northerly shear? Outflow looks excellent on all quads as the system is re-establishing itself after its passing with Cuba.


my bad. I hadn't looked at everything. just the structure it looked flat on the north side but was just from the convection re-building.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6756 Postby Batt2fd » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:34 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6757 Postby got ants? » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:35 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:just getting up after a long night. looks like we have a little northerly shear so thats good.


Where are you seeing northerly shear? Outflow looks excellent on all quads as the system is re-establishing itself after its passing with Cuba.


I'm reading about shear, no shear, but no talk about where Matthew is heading now, water temp wise. The waters north of Cuba, to the Bahamas, and even to the coast of Florida are exremely warm this time of year.

I'm praying for the best case solution (for me) but I have an ugly gut feeling. I'm in Hollywood, the southern most area of possible landfall. But just a wobble west can throw us/me into Matt's path. :(
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6758 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:38 pm

It's running pretty much parallel with the north Cuban coast and at a good clip. I'd be biting my nails now if I were in Dade County. If you extrapolate that course, it may come in south and west of Andros and look who's next on the block.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6759 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:40 pm

..... Add to the fact the storm ends with "ew"
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6760 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:41 pm

shawn6304 wrote:
GCANE wrote:RAP is showing a big build up of CAPE and Theta-E just before sunset.
Given that Matthew will entrain it overnight and at the same time the upper troposphere cools off; could make DMAX, Thursday morning, very interesting.
Conditions are much better for intensification than if it would be anywhere in the GOM at this time.





Hey Gcane ,

Not to question you but i thought i had read previous that Dmax/Min did not affect the major hurricanes is that not accurate? or maybe just minimal effects?


From what I have seen the biggest hot towers fire off at DMAX.
That is when the top of the troposphere is the coldest causing the greatest parcel lift.
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