ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

There are two very small islands in the core of Matthew now, hopefully they are uninhabited.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783723589505732609

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783674236506284037

[xironman]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783674236506284037

Concrete structures too, after hitting a 7000 ft mountain in Haiti.

[bahamaswx]

There are two very small islands in the core of Matthew now, hopefully they are uninhabited.

Those are the ragged islands. They are not uninhabited, unfortunately.

[Aric Dunn]

still well in radar range too

[decgirl66]

Can someone give me an approx of when Brevard County could start seeing deteriorating conditions?

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone give me an approx of when Brevard County could start seeing deteriorating conditions?

thursday evening into the night.

[Portastorm]

Can someone give me an approx of when Brevard County could start seeing deteriorating conditions?

Would HIGHLY recommend that you find this out from your local news sources and/or Brevard County Emergency Management. That being said, your local NWS office shows conditions deteriorating starting Thursday afternoon.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.6122&lon=-80.8075&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

[tropicwatch]

still well in radar range too

Hopefully it will stay in Cuba radar range until we can switch to Miami.

[Arsynic]

Just checked my closest point of approach on the latest track and it has moved closer to me on this update. Center at closest approach is expected 49 miles from me. Based on recent tracking I expect that to shrink even further.

My dad lives over there, and doesn't think it's necessary to put up the hurricane shutters.

All I can do is pray for them. They say they're just going to sleep until it's over! I'm very concerned. They have 3 sets of big slider doors that need to be shuttered, but they DON'T want to bother....

My 87yo father in law is just outside Charleston, SC and is blowing this off too

Half the city is complacent due to the cries wolf and the close misses of the past 30 years. Only businesses seem to be boarding up, most of my colleagues went into the office today even under evac order and I'm having a hard time convincing my parents to evacuate. They don't want to spend the money on travel.

[tolakram]

Wobble (stairstep) north as it starts to strengthen, or that is what appears to be happening.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

latest

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtu.be/dWhCYhQk2Ys

[newtotex]

Given how warm the waters are in the area and the favorable environment, what are the odds of a rapid intensification right before it hits the coastline? I know a forecasters worst nightmare is predicting a Category 3 to make landfall, but the storm rapidly insenifies into a 4 or 5, that's a big difference in wind speed. Really hope that's not what happens.

[ROCK]

agree in the strengthening...waiting for the pressure drop and then a few hours for the winds to correspond.

[KWT]

Yeah this system should stair-step, its been doing that pretty consistently throughout its journey from the deep Caribbean.

There is some weak shear from the north, but its not enough to induce weakening ad I think once the system gets a little further from Cuba sow strengthening should start up again, especially based on a decent inner core structure.

[ronyan]

12z Euro shows an 18mb drop over 24 hrs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty destructive scenario for Cape Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center on the 12z ECMWF.

[StormHunter72]

At this rate the west coast may be in play!!

[CrazyC83]

At this rate the west coast may be in play!!

I'm sure watches and warnings will be necessary for the west coast as well.