ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stormlover2013]

YEP.....they are usually pretty good 3 days out....this is why it's hard to trust them longer than 4 days but pretty accurate right now

[xironman]

Oddly the mid-west trough is a bit sharper this run

[tolakram]

[KWT]

So close to landfall...really doesn't matter at that point as the west eyewall will be ashore.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks as though the whole system grows in size, as well as being stronger this run. HOpe that isn't the start of a trend.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Out through 48 hours and looks like the Euro is a very slightly west of the 00Z run

Were gonna need the dotted line on this one..Jumps as to how close it is to coast.

[GeneratorPower]

This is about to enter the now-cast range instead of models. Going to be a nail biter right through the end.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

WB Graphics, 48 hours, eye is over the cape.

[ronjon]

Comparison of 12z GFS with 12z Euro at 48 hrs:

GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Euro:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

[JPmia]

The Tropical Tidbits resolution isn't high enough and the angle of landfall makes hard to determine if the Euro landfalls at Cape Canaveral or St Lucie County.

[tolakram]

At 54 hours a little weaker and eye still partially onshore, near Daytona.

[ronjon]

The Tropical Tidbits resolution isn't high enough and the angle of landfall makes hard to determine if the Euro landfalls at Cape Canaveral or St Lucie County.

Think the difference, and its small, is GFS takes the storm in a little further south near Vero and Euro near the Cape.

[SunnyThoughts]

The Tropical Tidbits resolution isn't high enough and the angle of landfall makes hard to determine if the Euro landfalls at Cape Canaveral or St Lucie County.

Doesn't matter where it shows landfall...That is one STRONG cane and the affects are going to be felt from those points..NORTH in a big way Im afraid.

[ronyan]

72 hours, near landfall in SC.

[SunnyThoughts]

Charleston getting nailed at 72 hours.

[ronyan]

totalkram if you want to finish the run that's cool.

[xironman]

You knew when that trough appeared this would happen

[pgoss11]

72 hours, near landfall in SC.

Would this be Cat 3?

[SeGaBob]

Where does it go between 48 and 72?