ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6781 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:12 pm

I am curious if he is going to make a run at a cat 4 or sub 950 pressure. EURO shows around 952mb at closest approach. I really think he can get lower than that...interesting evening / tonight...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6782 Postby ThetaE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:14 pm

ROCK wrote:I am curious if he is going to make a run at a cat 4 or sub 950 pressure. EURO shows around 952mb at closest approach. I really think he can get lower than that...interesting evening / tonight...


Do you mean when it's around Florida? ECMWF has it down to 942 mb in 24 hours...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6783 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:15 pm

ThetaE wrote:
ROCK wrote:I am curious if he is going to make a run at a cat 4 or sub 950 pressure. EURO shows around 952mb at closest approach. I really think he can get lower than that...interesting evening / tonight...


Do you mean when it's around Florida? ECMWF has it down to 942 mb in 24 hours...



yeah I didn't see that resolution.catching up...942mb is pretty low...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6784 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:16 pm

Depends how well the core wraps itself up, it will be just as bad if the system drops the pressure but pushes its wind field out, especially if it does stay just offshore and takes a coastal track.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6785 Postby StormHunter72 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:17 pm

Is that an upper level low south of LA?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6786 Postby TheHook210 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:18 pm

Looking at the last eat GFS and Euro I am just praying I have a house left. I'm right there on the space coast. Maybe 3 miles from Canaveral.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6787 Postby JarrodB » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:20 pm

My parents have boarded up and will be evacuating Cocoa Beach. I invited them to stay with me in Key West, but not sure if they will take up the offer.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6788 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:21 pm

ROCK wrote:I am curious if he is going to make a run at a cat 4 or sub 950 pressure. EURO shows around 952mb at closest approach. I really think he can get lower than that...interesting evening / tonight...


Keep in mind the ECMWF on Levi's site is not the full-res version. The MSLP is actually below 950mb by the time the storm makes landfall in Cape Canaveral.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6789 Postby hipshot » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:22 pm

JarrodB wrote:My parents have boarded up and will be evacuating Cocoa Beach. I invited them to stay with me in Key West, but not sure if they will take up the offer.

I would like to visit Key West but not right now...LOL.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6790 Postby caneseddy » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:24 pm

Yeah, that Euro run is horrible for the whole East Coast of Florida

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783731619899252740


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6791 Postby Michele B » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:25 pm

sancholopez wrote:
Michele B wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Just checked my closest point of approach on the latest track and it has moved closer to me on this update. Center at closest approach is expected 49 miles from me. Based on recent tracking I expect that to shrink even further.


My dad lives over there, and doesn't think it's necessary to put up the hurricane shutters.

All I can do is pray for them. They say they're just going to sleep until it's over! I'm very concerned. They have 3 sets of big slider doors that need to be shuttered, but they DON'T want to bother....


It's amazing how much those big glass sliders will bend and bow before breaking. I watch glass do things with Wilma I didnt think possible. The glass was panting. Of course and elderly person died in that storm when their slider broke off the track and crush the lady.


Not to bring up a sore subject again, cause we HAD this discussion yesterday about "glass sliders bowing, boarded/not boarded, etc." but mine did the same thing! They WERE boarded up, tho, so I did not fear them popping apart, but it was a scary thing to see the amount of "bowing" that they did!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6792 Postby Michele B » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:26 pm

hipshot wrote:
JarrodB wrote:My parents have boarded up and will be evacuating Cocoa Beach. I invited them to stay with me in Key West, but not sure if they will take up the offer.

I would like to visit Key West but not right now...LOL.


The good news is it wouldnt' be hard to get there, as ALL traffic would be moving in the opposite direction!

:lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6793 Postby meriland23 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:26 pm

I am not a professional by any means, but when it comes to Matthew, I really would not be surprised if he regained Cat 5 status by the time he approaches. 1: he wasn't destabilized as much as predicted though going over the Cuban mountains. 2: In general, Matt's intensity was.not expected to blow up as quick as it did. It was a Cat 5 within a blink of an eye.3: it's persistence is evident, and the shear is less involved than once tthought it'd be. I'm not saying I anticipate 1, but th way the convection is ramping up this morning.......... :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6794 Postby Michele B » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:28 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:This is not going to help the Zika virus situation in Florida at all. Lots of standing water will be everywhere, and not the priority to address. many folks will also have their windows and screens blown out. if there are small pocket populations of infected bugs, they will literally be transported far and wide by the storm. yeehaw :(


This is something I was wondering, too! Won't all those mosquitoes FLY with the storm STRAIGHT into OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE???

Bad news. Bad, bad, news.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6795 Postby Michele B » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:28 pm

sponger wrote:GFS is just brutal!


What do you mean?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6796 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:30 pm

ROCK wrote:I am curious if he is going to make a run at a cat 4 or sub 950 pressure. EURO shows around 952mb at closest approach. I really think he can get lower than that...interesting evening / tonight...


I don't think that was even full resolution with the 952. Likely lower than that.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6797 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:30 pm

Decent North wobble in progress
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6798 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:31 pm

New recon is on its way..

its starting to look better both on radar and sat.. slowly getting its acted together again.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6799 Postby leanne_uk » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:35 pm

Hey guys and gals....

Just a quick one.... my friends bro and sis in law live in Savannah GA.

They have never had to experience a storm with originally Being from the UK. They are worrying about what they should be doing.
Are they likely to be affected by Matthew and should they were boarding up the windows etc.. if so?

I know that there is probably info already on one of the pages but I have a teething baby and I am struggling to use the phone and look for relevant info.

Thanks in advance :) ;)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6800 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:36 pm

A little ragged on IR still, but on microwave and visible, wow. I can't believe how fast it's recovering from hitting Cuba. The core is about as symmetrical as it's ever been and a large eye looks to be trying to form.
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