ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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hurricanefloyd5
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6881 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
lando wrote:@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb


no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax :P


My guess is that landfall predictions would be in Brevard County that's just my guess
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6882 Postby lando » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:06 pm

Not raining and already lost power in Wellington... Stupid FPL
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6883 Postby Sal Collaziano » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:11 pm

lando wrote:Not raining and already lost power in Wellington... Stupid FPL

F'n balls. Really? I'm at Whole Foods right now. It's bright and sunny. So that power outage is just a coincidence...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6884 Postby TJRE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:12 pm

Last edited by TJRE on Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6885 Postby ava_ati » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:14 pm



Is that a little bit of dry air S of Miami?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6886 Postby ThetaE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:16 pm

Recon should be getting close to their first pass. Any guesses on what they'll find?

I'm thinking 953 mb and 115 kt.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6887 Postby tgenius » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:17 pm

Well in my area of Miami (Kendall) This is the prediction for the wind speed:
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH

*IF* that really ends up being the wind speed then people are going to get real complacent with future storms down this far.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6888 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6889 Postby lando » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm

Sal Collaziano wrote:
lando wrote:Not raining and already lost power in Wellington... Stupid FPL

F'n balls. Really? I'm at Whole Foods right now. It's bright and sunny. So that power outage is just a coincidence...


2400 affected I'm in old Wellington, but makes
Me wonder if this happens before the storm how it's gonna work during and after
Last edited by lando on Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6890 Postby flamingosun » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm

TheHook210 wrote:Looking at the last eat GFS and Euro I am just praying I have a house left. I'm right there on the space coast. Maybe 3 miles from Canaveral.

Me, too. I will be on pins and needles until Sun when our ship is due back t o Port Canveral . . . IF it's able to get back in then,that is. Hoping Matthew doesn't shoal up the channel. Not exactly perfect timing for a cruise. Lots of Floridians on board, many from Brevard.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6891 Postby Hellicon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm

First time poster. Ive been lurking this board for years. I manage a Catastrophe Adjuster firm for multiple carriers. I frequently use the board to help gauge potential storms.

All of the alarm bells are ringing. We've been getting call from carriers we didnt know existed for staging request. They want claims adjusters staged everwhere from Tampa to Atlanta ready to dive in once the roads clear.

I had a chance to look at a damage estimate model for a Euro run from a top 3 national property and casualty insurer. It's unbelievably bad.

One of the biggest fears is actaually due to a lack of wind storms in the area for such a long time. The potential for wind borne debris from unsecured sources such as old trees.

I don't mean to incite fear but I wanted to return some of the insight I've borrowed from you guys.

(This post should be concidered personal speculation. I am not a Profesional met.)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6892 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm

First center pass from recon 10 min
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6893 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:18 pm

Pretty good radial waves in the cirrus from the hot-tower.
That was a strong one.
Should raise the core-temp up a few notches.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6894 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:19 pm

Michele B wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:This is not going to help the Zika virus situation in Florida at all. Lots of standing water will be everywhere, and not the priority to address. many folks will also have their windows and screens blown out. if there are small pocket populations of infected bugs, they will literally be transported far and wide by the storm. yeehaw :(


This is something I was wondering, too! Won't all those mosquitoes FLY with the storm STRAIGHT into OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE???

Bad news. Bad, bad, news.

It could happen. In 1988 several locusts appeared throughout the Caribbean, as far west as Jamaica. It's believed they were transported all the way from Africa by what was then Tropical Storm Joan. (See the section of this article headed Lesser Antilles.) I remember them well. They looked like giant light brown grasshoppers with spots. It was feared they would destroy many crops and elaborate plans were made to use pesticides to get rid of them. However, thankfully, the birds had a feast, obviating any need for pesticides!
Last edited by abajan on Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6895 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:19 pm

tgenius wrote:Well in my area of Miami (Kendall) This is the prediction for the wind speed:
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH

*IF* that really ends up being the wind speed then people are going to get real complacent with future storms down this far.


Winds will likely drop off as you go south/southwest of Miami, unless the track shifts west. That said, there have been hints of a left shift in the 12Z runs, and a Hurricane Warning might be prudent for that county as well.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6896 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:21 pm

ThetaE wrote:Recon should be getting close to their first pass. Any guesses on what they'll find?

I'm thinking 953 mb and 115 kt.

I will take the 960 mb 125mph. to me the eye looks pretty bad on Cuban radar
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6897 Postby srva80 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:22 pm

Checking in from Boynton Beach in southern PBC... looks like its going to be an interesting 48 hrs ahead.. Hope everyone stays safe. Im 3.21 miles from the coast. Expecting minimal hurricane strength winds. Not too concerned with major flooding this far inland
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6898 Postby ronyan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:22 pm

stephen23 wrote:
ThetaE wrote:Recon should be getting close to their first pass. Any guesses on what they'll find?

I'm thinking 953 mb and 115 kt.

I will take the 960 mb 125mph. to me the eye looks pretty bad on Cuban radar


It would be pretty far from that radar at this point.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6899 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:22 pm

Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#6900 Postby ronyan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:23 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.


It's being obscured by an intense blowup of convection on the eastern side.
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