ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

First time poster. Ive been lurking this board for years. I manage a Catastrophe Adjuster firm for multiple carriers. I frequently use the board to help gauge potential storms.

All of the alarm bells are ringing. We've been getting call from carriers we didnt know existed for staging request. They want claims adjusters staged everwhere from Tampa to Atlanta ready to dive in once the roads clear.

I had a chance to look at a damage estimate model for a Euro run from a top 3 national property and casualty insurer. It's unbelievably bad.

One of the biggest fears is actaually due to a lack of wind storms in the area for such a long time. The potential for wind borne debris from unsecured sources such as old trees.

I don't mean to incite fear but I wanted to return some of the insight I've borrowed from you guys.

(This post should be concidered personal speculation. I am not a Profesional met.)

Thank you so much for your post. Do keep us updated as you can. Any concerns for NC at the moment?

[NC George]

@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb

no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax

It's been my observation (strictly amateur) that a hurricane approaching land at a shallow angle (less than 30 degrees) tends to want to stay just offshore until it is forced onto land by a cape. In other words the eye tends to roll along the coastline. This is why Wilmington, Morehead City and Cape Hatteras in NC get hit with frequency, they are the capes that break the shallow angle and force the storm on shore. Luckily for Florida, the coast angles away as you go north making this more likely. Thus my prediction would be Cape Canaveral takes the direct hit if anywhere.

[hipshot]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

If this is just for a school class, no friggin' way. If you're being paid $100k salary, different story.

[SunnyThoughts]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

Go with your instincts. I suppose if you have a VERY sturdy building to ride it out in and NOT right on the Coast line? I can only say I"ve been in one here in Pensacola, 1 mile from the bay... and I"ll never do it again. Not a cat 3 or higher anyway. Good luck with your decision.

[WeatherOrKnot]

For Florida, I'm seeing people say it's west, it's east, the track is heading more offshore, the track is heading more on shore. I mean it is literally all over the place.

I'm not letting my guard down, but I know my mom heard from some random source that track will keep hurricane winds well offshore in pbc and she's becoming complacent.

I know everybody is entitled to their own opionion, but I really wish we'd stick to more facts and or predictions based on currents facts.

[Nimbus]

First time poster. Ive been lurking this board for years. I manage a Catastrophe Adjuster firm for multiple carriers. I frequently use the board to help gauge potential storms.

All of the alarm bells are ringing. We've been getting call from carriers we didnt know existed for staging request. They want claims adjusters staged everwhere from Tampa to Atlanta ready to dive in once the roads clear.

I had a chance to look at a damage estimate model for a Euro run from a top 3 national property and casualty insurer. It's unbelievably bad.

One of the biggest fears is actaually due to a lack of wind storms in the area for such a long time. The potential for wind borne debris from unsecured sources such as old trees.

I don't mean to incite fear but I wanted to return some of the insight I've borrowed from you guys.

(This post should be concidered personal speculation. I am not a Profesional met.)

If you get the east eyewall in an area that you have exposure, you won't need adjusters its mostly total policy limit write off. Everybody had to leave after Katrina even adjusters.
Just the western wind fields inland a few miles wouldn't be that bad, downed limbs. No worse than Tallahassee in Hermine.

[Aric Dunn]

has not strengthened yet. pressure still the same along with winds

[AutoPenalti]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

May I ask how you manage to get that offer? I'm curious, since I'm studying this field.

[bob rulz]

Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.

That's only because there's a huge blow-up of convection along the east eyewall - see those clouds that look like thunderheads? That's an indication that the storm is strengthening, not weakening.

[Patrick99]

Well in my area of Miami (Kendall) This is the prediction for the wind speed:
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH

*IF* that really ends up being the wind speed then people are going to get real complacent with future storms down this far.

Winds will likely drop off as you go south/southwest of Miami, unless the track shifts west. That said, there have been hints of a left shift in the 12Z runs, and a Hurricane Warning might be prudent for that county as well.

This reminds me so much of Hurricane David. Similar angles involved. I was quite young, but remember it well....probably the only thing I remember from 1979. So much hype in Miami, lots of people boarding up, etc....I think we even taped up the windows. Of course, not only was there little to no wind as it passed to the east, but hardly even any rain either. I really think this will be the case for most of Miami-Dade. Yes, I know the storm is and will be stronger than David was at that point, but I can't see how the general dynamics are going to be that different. The storm probably is going to pass even further off the coast than did David. Of course, a good west jog or two could prove me wrong, but that doesn't look like it's going to be the case. Just my humble opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.

That's only because there's a huge blow-up of convection along the east eyewall - see those clouds that look like thunderheads? That's an indication that the storm is strengthening, not weakening.

the eyewall needs to close off then we will get deepening rather rapidly.

[stephen23]

Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.

That's only because there's a huge blow-up of convection along the east eyewall - see those clouds that look like thunderheads? That's an indication that the storm is strengthening, not weakening.

Recon shows different. Pressure the same as last flight as well as the winds. Sure vortex will still show eye open to the north

[CrazyC83]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

May I ask how you manage to get that offer? I'm curious, since I'm studying this field.

Several friends are going themselves, along with a professor. I've decided NOT to go. Not comfortable.

[ronyan]

Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.

That's only because there's a huge blow-up of convection along the east eyewall - see those clouds that look like thunderheads? That's an indication that the storm is strengthening, not weakening.

Recon shows different. Pressure the same as last flight as well as the winds. Sure vortex will still show eye open to the north

It hasn't weakened.

[tgenius]

Well in my area of Miami (Kendall) This is the prediction for the wind speed:
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH

*IF* that really ends up being the wind speed then people are going to get real complacent with future storms down this far.

Winds will likely drop off as you go south/southwest of Miami, unless the track shifts west. That said, there have been hints of a left shift in the 12Z runs, and a Hurricane Warning might be prudent for that county as well.

This reminds me so much of Hurricane David. Similar angles involved. I was quite young, but remember it well....probably the only thing I remember from 1979. So much hype in Miami, lots of people boarding up, etc....I think we even taped up the windows. Of course, not only was there little to no wind as it passed to the east, but hardly even any rain either. I really think this will be the case for most of Miami-Dade. Yes, I know the storm is and will be stronger than David was at that point, but I can't see how the general dynamics are going to be that different. The storm probably is going to pass even further off the coast than did David. Of course, a good west jog or two could prove me wrong, but that doesn't look like it's going to be the case. Just my humble opinion.

I was one years old when David came by, so I don't remember but I do remember the stories my parents used to tell me. Honestly I'm not closing my accordions until tomorrow morning, if needed.

[WPBWeather]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

May I ask how you manage to get that offer? I'm curious, since I'm studying this field.

Several friends are going themselves, along with a professor. I've decided NOT to go. Not comfortable.

So, you are not a "crazy" as you sound then.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Not looking as good on Satellite as it was earlier, can't even see the eye anymore.

That's only because there's a huge blow-up of convection along the east eyewall - see those clouds that look like thunderheads? That's an indication that the storm is strengthening, not weakening.

the eyewall needs to close off then we will get deepening rather rapidly.

When do you think that will happen? Tonight?

[WPBskywatch]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

May I ask how you manage to get that offer? I'm curious, since I'm studying this field.

Well, this is Florida's first hurricane in 11 years. Never know when you'll have the opportunity again. As long as the people you're going with are experienced, I'd take the opportunity.

[Aric Dunn]

That's only because there's a huge blow-up of convection along the east eyewall - see those clouds that look like thunderheads? That's an indication that the storm is strengthening, not weakening.

the eyewall needs to close off then we will get deepening rather rapidly.

When do you think that will happen? Tonight?

the core will organize most likely and it should deepen pretty quickly.

[alan1961]

Well the space station just gone over Matthew and the eye has clouded over
but you can just about make it out..still an awesome sight though