ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

Also worth noting recon found tropical storm force winds 106 nm from center fix in NE quad.

[windnrain]

Just wrapped

[tolakram]

As if they were listening, an ocean drop.

Product: Bathythermal Data (SOFX01 KWBC)
Date Profile Data was Processed: October 5th, 2016 at 21:59:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 14L in 2016 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
AXBT Buoy Drop (Airborne eXpendable Bathythermograph)

Profile Date: October 5th, 2016
Profile Time: 21:49:31Z

Profile Coordinates: 22.319N 76.413W
Profile Location: 115 statute miles (185 km) to the NE (56°) from Camagüey, Cuba.

AXBT Channel: 14

Sea Surface Temperature: 29.17°C (84.5°F)
Depth of 26°C Isotherm: 385.5 m (1,265 ft)
Deepest Depth of AXBT: 385.5 m (1,265 ft)

[newtotex]

Gah that looks like it's on a b-line for south Florida, hopefully it curves, Metro Miami-FTL-PB is just millions of people packed into a narrow strip of land, that would be a nightmare. As awful as this sounds IF it's going to skirt/landfall somewhere a more rural, I say rural relatively, like Brevard would be better an Metro Miami. Who knows how many people have actually evacuated down there

[KBBOCA]

I'm experiencing some serious cognitive dissonance at the moment in "liking" a bunch of the recent posts here & in the model thread. I "like" them in that the graphics & info are very helpful. But Holy crap. I surely DON'T Like what I'm seeing. Unless something major changes we are looking at the continued unfolding of a very bad situation. Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, nearly the entire east coast of FL (plus maybe Orlando?) Savannah... maybe Charleston. Wow...

[Kazmit]

I can only imagine how destructive Matthew would be if it made that large loop with two Florida landfalls. Reminds me of Ivan, except it would be stronger.

[ZX12R]

Just wrapped

It sure LOOKS to be bombing!

[tolakram]

Another round firing.

[JtSmarts]

I wonder how large he's going to get? He's still relatively compact compared to some of the other "classic" canes.

[windnrain]

I'm no meteorologist, but I see something that I've always noticed prefaced massive strengthening...
Whenever all of those "lines" emanating from the center form after something wraps.

[wxman57]

I can only imagine how destructive Matthew would be if it made that large loop with two Florida landfalls. Reminds me of Ivan, except it would be stronger.

If it was to make the loop back to Florida it would very likely be a shell of itself after ingesting the sub-50F dewpoint air that will be flowing off the SE U.S. Coast by Sunday. I do think a loop is likely, but not all the way back to Florida.

[Exalt]

I can only imagine how destructive Matthew would be if it made that large loop with two Florida landfalls. Reminds me of Ivan, except it would be stronger.

It'd be a reverse Ivan, Florida landfalls THEN possible Gulf landfall.

[RL3AO]

I can only imagine how destructive Matthew would be if it made that large loop with two Florida landfalls. Reminds me of Ivan, except it would be stronger.

If it was to make the loop back to Florida it would very likely be a shell of itself after ingesting the sub-50F dewpoint air that will be flowing off the SE U.S. Coast by Sunday. I do think a loop is likely, but not all the way back to Florida.

This trough is bringing 1 to 2 feet of snow in Manitoba and sub-freezing temps to MN. It might fall apart quicker than even the NHC says by day 4/5.

[wxman57]

I'm no meteorologist, but I see something that I've always noticed prefaced massive strengthening...

Whenever all of those "lines" emanating from the center form after something wraps.

Those are outflow boundaries, from previously-collapsed squalls. They're not a sign of strengthening, they mean that an area of squalls has collapsed. These outflow boundaries are often seen around a weakening storm.

[jdjaguar]

Gah that looks like it's on a b-line for south Florida, hopefully it curves, Metro Miami-FTL-PB is just millions of people packed into a narrow strip of land, that would be a nightmare. As awful as this sounds IF it's going to skirt/landfall somewhere a more rural, I say rural relatively, like Brevard would be better an Metro Miami. Who knows how many people have actually evacuated down

there

That's the big white elephant in the room
You cannot evacuate the Florida east coast
Really getting worried
Boarded up southern exposure
Praying

[Aric Dunn]

I can only imagine how destructive Matthew would be if it made that large loop with two Florida landfalls. Reminds me of Ivan, except it would be stronger.

If it was to make the loop back to Florida it would very likely be a shell of itself after ingesting the sub-50F dewpoint air that will be flowing off the SE U.S. Coast by Sunday. I do think a loop is likely, but not all the way back to Florida.

unless something similar to the GFS run last night .. if it get far enough south it could potentially maintain.

[swampgator92]

Can you extrapolate 330 degrees to the Florida coast? Where does that hit?

Per last recon Fix it appears storm current heading is at 330 degrees.
http://i67.tinypic.com/2vns7cp.jpg

[Exalt]

I can only imagine how destructive Matthew would be if it made that large loop with two Florida landfalls. Reminds me of Ivan, except it would be stronger.

If it was to make the loop back to Florida it would very likely be a shell of itself after ingesting the sub-50F dewpoint air that will be flowing off the SE U.S. Coast by Sunday. I do think a loop is likely, but not all the way back to Florida.

unless something similar to the GFS run last night .. if it get far enough south it could potentially maintain.

Exactly, the GFS brings somewhat of a weak-moderate TS into Florida, and then Matthews remnants seem to meander around in the Gulf (which is highly unlikely, if the conditions are conducive enough for strengthening). Also, this is in somewhat of the same area that Nicole is currently in, and she's forecast to stick around for a WHILE, so I don't think a second landfall and a recurve are out of the question. I think playing it off like this is dangerous considering what's at possible stake.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar showing increasing convection around a circular eyewall still open on west but that wont last.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[jdjaguar]

I'm no meteorologist, but I see something that I've always noticed prefaced massive strengthening...
Whenever all of those "lines" emanating from the center form after something wraps.

I call it the "fist"
Getting very worried
Jax has never experienced what NHC projects