ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Is a trip up I-95 looking like the most likely outcome with this?

[dexterlabio]

I'm ind of surprised that it weakened a bit... seven hours ago the eye was clearing out fresh from Cuba landfall.. Although, the eye structure is still intact, there is not much work to do if Matthew is to re-intensify in the coming hours.

[Exalt]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Seems to bring the storm extreme WNW rather than NW or N, looks like it's poised to make more than just a graze off the coast, looks like it wants to dig in.

[WPBWeather]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Now THAT would make the evening news for sure. Can't believe how this storm has behaved so far, even if this particular run does not pan out. Many studies lay ahead for this year. Dr. Phil will be very busy, IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Well, it took seven hours but house is all shuttered and supplies are all stocked for Matthew here in northern PBC. Did most of my buying two days ago - and very thankful for that! Satellite view looks very impressive - will have to see if Recon obs eventually catch up.

took me 8 but had to take multiple breaks including a 30 min siesta...weather was hot and sunny..30 mins after completion we were hit with a downpour..mother nature usually gives the day before for preps and it did today

[ALhurricane]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

[RL3AO]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Well I can only hope this is a model not designed for tropical cyclones being way too fast and too far south.

[JaxGator]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Is a trip up I-95 looking like the most likely outcome with this?

That's what the Euro and GFS have been showing for the past day (or just off the coast). Bad stuff. From West Palm and up the coast.

[GeneratorPower]

Forgive the apparent locality bias, but we in SW Florida have been really struggling with what to do if there is an unexpected jog left tonight. That HRRR is not helping. It's basically too late to put up shutters. It takes hours because they are second story. If this goes to Miami it will be a colossal miscalculation by the experts and the entire area is under warned and underprepared.

[Blinhart]

I have a feeling that this might get all the way up to Cat. 5 before land fall in the Miami/Dade area before deciding not to go up the East Coast and going straight into the GoM before any major North movement.

Pure gut feeling, the cool front that is stalled over Florida will push it further West.

[RL3AO]

Plane going back towards the center. Eyewall may be closed.

[Exalt]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

HRRR did quite well with Hermine IIRC.

[GeneratorPower]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

We are definitely being careful. But it has been nerve racking.

[Exalt]

I have a feeling that this might get all the way up to Cat. 5 before land fall in the Miami/Dade area before deciding not to go up the East Coast and going straight into the GoM before any major North movement.

Pure gut feeling, the cool front that is stalled over Florida will push it further West.

Yeah the westerly jog on the HRRR has me feeling things I really am scared about, a possible Andrew 2.0.

[ZX12R]

I have a feeling that this might get all the way up to Cat. 5 before land fall in the Miami/Dade area before deciding not to go up the East Coast and going straight into the GoM before any major North movement.

Pure gut feeling, the cool front that is stalled over Florida will push it further West.

Thank God it's just a gut feeling.

[johngaltfla]

Forgive the apparent locality bias, but we in SW Florida have been really struggling with what to do if there is an unexpected jog left tonight. That HRRR is not helping. It's basically too late to put up shutters. It takes hours because they are second story. If this goes to Miami it will be a colossal miscalculation by the experts and the entire area is under warned and underprepared.

I'm not a met but I'm not as worried as the storm will likely pass north of you and I and curve back to the NNE or NE before major impacts reach our region. Just my .02 and per our local mets on TV.

[ALhurricane]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

HRRR did quite well with Hermine IIRC.

It actually did not do that well. It had Hermine going in the direction of Mobile/Pensacola for several runs.

[Blinhart]

I have a feeling that this might get all the way up to Cat. 5 before land fall in the Miami/Dade area before deciding not to go up the East Coast and going straight into the GoM before any major North movement.

Pure gut feeling, the cool front that is stalled over Florida will push it further West.

Yeah the westerly jog on the HRRR has me feeling things I really am scared about, a possible Andrew 2.0.

I didn't want to say his name at all, with the bad Karma and all.

[GeneratorPower]

Forgive the apparent locality bias, but we in SW Florida have been really struggling with what to do if there is an unexpected jog left tonight. That HRRR is not helping. It's basically too late to put up shutters. It takes hours because they are second story. If this goes to Miami it will be a colossal miscalculation by the experts and the entire area is under warned and underprepared.

I'm not a met but I'm not as worried as the storm will likely pass north of you and I and curve back to the NNE or NE before major impacts reach our region. Just my .02 and per our local mets on TV.

Yeah. That. We hope.

[RL3AO]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

It just seems too fast with the forward movement too. I have no reason to expect the HRRR to handle a TC well.

Of course, if its right...