ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 12-15* (sorry) hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

ty for explaining

Does the NHC even consider this model? it's way west of all guidance?

[Dean4Storms]

I have friends in New Smyrna Beach, FLA (North of Cape Canaveral) who have secured everything as much as possible. They told me yesterday that one could not get even close to a gas station, as many were depleted and those that had gas had lines stacking back for what seemed miles. Store shelves were decimated in the essential supply areas.

They're going to evac, but have been unable to find hotel space. They've finally decided to simply get out early tomorrow morning, driving northwest while working the phone until they find a hotel with availability.

That's all you can really do sometimes. They will eventually find a place to stay. Pass them this advice. Try and pretend it's a vacation. My family has done it for several storms and it works. Yeah people are worried about their homes, but take in some sights, look for interesting places, etc. It helps take the edge off. Make the best of the situation.

Tell them to get on Priceline.com NOW and look in Dothan, Pensacola, or Tallahassee. That's their best bet. Book the room and haul arse in the morning. Those are all 1 tank trips unless they are driving a tank.

Also can download the RV Parks App and check those Campgrounds that also rent out Cabins!

[ncweatherwizard]

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 12-15* (sorry) hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

ty for explaining

Had to do a little reading, but it looks like the dynamical core of HRRR is the WRF ARW model, and the boundary conditions are forced by GFS (presumably the operational, deterministic run). Then it's updated every 12 hours with the GFS forecast.

More importantly, it's strength is the assimilation of high-resolution observations (like ground-based radar observations) that leads to more realistic short-term (i.e. less than 12 hours or so) forecasts than a regional model could make without use of observations. Problem is, guess how many observations of the hurricane, when it's so far offshore, are getting assimilated into the model? Not a whole lot. GIGO. Not saying the HRRR track is impossible, but I wouldn't worry about what HRRR says unless the global models followed suit.

[stormreader]

Well, there's the situation. Much more confidence in short range models in recent years. I think in the past hurricane warnings would already have been posted for Dade County. Not so at this point. So even with looking at that sat image the NHC apparently thinks there is very little chance of Dade County experiencing hurricane conditions.

[delta lady]

Hi, long time lurker here. I was wondering if anyone had an idea how severe the winds will get in Jacksonville. I am listening to the news, and they just said they are estimating 40-60 mph winds for our city. higher on the beaches. Is that an accurate estimate? I am in a rental house about 15 miles inland from the beach that has no shutters for the windows. I have fully prepared other than the shutters. Trying to decide if It will be safe to stay here. Thanks for any advice.

I am here in Jacksonville and all this is going to depend just how close the eyewall will come and then pass within the Northeast Florida coast. The forecast is for the eyewall to come within 30-40 miles of Jacksonville Beach. Should that manifest, hurrucane conditions willbe experienced from about the I-95 corridor east to the coast with regards to Matthew's closest approach here. I think 40-60. mph sustajned winds will be likely just inland and points to the the St.Johns River .

. I was in Orlando 2004 for Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all in a 31 day time span. Horrendous power outages, even though we had underground utilities. Now that I'm in Jax what scares the bejesus out of me is the fact that you don't have underground utilities. Everything is above ground. A direct hit on this city would be catastrophic for the downed power lines alone. Let's not even talk about the trees. To get a chainsaw after Charlie hit, I had to call a nephew in Fort Lauderdale to meet me halfway on the turnpike.

[ZX12R]

After reading storm2k all day, i.e. discussion and model pages for Matthew, the only thing I would say for sure right now, is that he hasn't dissipated, and is heading in a mostly northward direction. Perhaps tomorrow morning will bring some confidence.

[HurricaneRyan]

Ok. Thanks for answering my question.

So, the projected path is interesting now. It basically has it making landfall in Florida, but then going back out to sea.

[RL3AO]

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 12-15* (sorry) hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

ty for explaining

Had to do a little reading, but it looks like the dynamical core of HRRR is the WRF ARW model, and the boundary conditions are forced by GFS (presumably the operational, deterministic run). Then it's updated every 12 hours with the GFS forecast.

More importantly, it's strength is the assimilation of high-resolution observations (like ground-based radar observations) that leads to more realistic short-term (i.e. less than 12 hours or so) forecasts than a regional model could make without use of observations. Problem is, guess how many observations of the hurricane, when it's so far offshore, are getting assimilated into the model? Not a whole lot. GIGO. Not saying the HRRR track is impossible, but I wouldn't worry about what HRRR says unless the global models followed suit.

Good points. The HRRR is designed to assimilate the vast US surface observation and radar network to make good short-term forecasts. There isn't much data here that's not coming from the initialization (which you said is from the GFS) in the middle of the Bahamas.

[stephen23]

grrr.. cuba turned off the radar

Its back up. Doesn't look closed yet

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Matthew still isn't strengthening per latest past. Pressures around 960mb.

[Alyono]

One potential major concern. If this does come inland near Palm Beach, tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee could be very bad

[ThetaE]

Wow. I was way to quick to call for pressure deepening earlier. Now that I'm looking at satellite, though, this storm's about to bomb out.

[chris_fit]

If there is any good news to report, it's that per recon, the WEST side of the storm is quite a bit weaker than the E and NE side of the storm.

[ronyan]

Moss Town sustained 117 mph G 142. That may be some evidence there of strengthening if the station is reliable.

[jdray]

Hi, long time lurker here. I was wondering if anyone had an idea how severe the winds will get in Jacksonville. I am listening to the news, and they just said they are estimating 40-60 mph winds for our city. higher on the beaches. Is that an accurate estimate? I am in a rental house about 15 miles inland from the beach that has no shutters for the windows. I have fully prepared other than the shutters. Trying to decide if It will be safe to stay here. Thanks for any advice.

I am here in Jacksonville and all this is going to depend just how close the eyewall will come and then pass within the Northeast Florida coast. The forecast is for the eyewall to come within 30-40 miles of Jacksonville Beach. Should that manifest, hurrucane conditions willbe experienced from about the I-95 corridor east to the coast with regards to Matthew's closest approach here. I think 40-60. mph sustajned winds will be likely just inland and points to the the St.Johns River .

. I was in Orlando 2004 for Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all in a 31 day time span. Horrendous power outages, even though we had underground utilities. Now that I'm in Jax what scares the bejesus out of me is the fact that you don't have underground utilities. Everything is above ground. A direct hit on this city would be catastrophic for the downed power lines alone. Let's not even talk about the trees.

I live out in Clay County, while my neighborhood has underground utilities, there are still some above ground lines between me and the substation. I lost power with Frances for 3 days.

[Exalt]

Well, there's the situation. Much more confidence in short range models in recent years. I think in the past hurricane warnings would already have been posted for Dade County. Not so at this point. So even with looking at that sat image the NHC apparently thinks there is very little chance of Dade County experiencing hurricane conditions.

Sadly, yes this is what they think. However, in reality, since this is forecasted to be of such high intensity, they really should. Miami is close enough to Ft. Lauderdale/Broward to warrant a hurricane warning, especially with this small little westerly jog it's doing, all the high-rises in the area, and the amount of tourists in the area who don't know what the hell to do in hurricanes unlike most locals.

[dukeblue219]

Recon has just penetrated the eye from the NW side. Looks like still extrapolating ~960mb, peak SFMR was 78kt on the way in. The outbound leg will be interesting for sure, plus the description of the eye in the VDM.

[RL3AO]

If there is any good news to report, it's that per recon, the East side of the storm is quite a bit weaker than the W and NW side of the storm.

Say what?

[terrapintransit]

I second that!!!

:double:

[ronyan]

Winds are much higher than 78 kt on the east side.