ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

OK time for people to start guessing where landfall will be (if at all), and wind speed and pressure.

I'm going with either Lauderdale or Miami, winds around 165, pressure around 940.

Miami 980 150

Not sure in what universe a 980mb storm produces 150mph winds.

[Michele B]

I'll throw out a newbie guess at 135 and Vero

Do you know the old legend that "VERO" GOT it's name because hurricanes used to always "VEER" away from there?

True story.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

A lot of local mets are frankly idiots. The Euro is about the same the last two runs and the GFS shifted slightly west. Those are the only two models that matter IMO at this point.

[Vdogg]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

Perhaps. The eye has been moving slightly east of the forecast points in a northwest motion. The ECMWF went east at 12z. The gfs actually went west and south at the 18z, almost hitting Miami. I don't see gfs verifying, I think the EC is far more likely from looking at the water vapor loop.

[WGV]

Just announced - MANDATORY evacuations for the entire city of St. Augustine

[marye45]

Have they issued any Hurricane warnings for Miami Dade yet?

[ZX12R]

OK time for people to start guessing where landfall will be (if at all), and wind speed and pressure.

I'm going with either Lauderdale or Miami, winds around 165, pressure around 940.

Miami 980 150

Not sure in what universe a 980mb storm produces 150mph winds.

Well, that's what Jim Cantore told me.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I'm trying to figure why Matt regained strength after Cuba, only to weaken yet again and..I don't think he is getting.. his act together yet?

He VERY much is getting his act together just hasn't really started strengthening again yet. He is getting ready to ramp up pretty quickly over night though. Once that eye is cleared out again which it's well on it's way to do so he should ramp very quickly.

[HurrMark]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

Perhaps. The eye has been moving slightly east of the forecast points in a northwest motion. The ECMWF went east at 12z. The gfs actually went west and south at the 18z, almost hitting Miami. I don't see gfs verifying, I think the EC is far more likely from looking at the water vapor loop.

No, very much on forecast path

[KC7NEC]

Just announced - MANDATORY evacuations for the entire city of St. Augustine

Source please?

[ZX12R]

I'm trying to figure why Matt regained strength after Cuba, only to weaken yet again and..I don't think he is getting.. his act together yet?

He VERY much is getting his act together just hasn't really started strengthening again yet. He is getting ready to ramp up pretty quickly over night though. Once that is cleared out again which it's well on it's way to do so he should ramp very quickly.

In other words, Matthew is poised. Very poised!

[marciacubed]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

Perhaps. The eye has been moving slightly east of the forecast points in a northwest motion. The ECMWF went east at 12z. The gfs actually went west and south at the 18z, almost hitting Miami. I don't see gfs verifying, I think the EC is far more likely from looking at the water vapor loop.

No, very much on forecast path

Thank you everyone for your help

[newtotex]

Just announced - MANDATORY evacuations for the entire city of St. Augustine

Dang. My aunts and uncles live just inland in St. John's, I'm not sure if they planned to evacuate or not

[caneseddy]

Channel 10 here in Miami almost sounding the all clear for South Florida because of the spaghetti plots showing none making landfall in South Florida

I think it's pretty premature for that

[WeatherOrKnot]

Sheriff's office just came through our development and told us we have to evacuate. We have until 5am to get out. I'm pretty much ready to go, so we are heading to my Grandmother's house now. (Mobile home development in pbc)

Edited to say I'm leaving MY mobile home community to go to my grandmother's safe house!

[HurricaneBelle]

Miami 980 150

Not sure in what universe a 980mb storm produces 150mph winds.

Well, that's what Jim Cantore told me.

Yeah, I don't think so, you must have misheard. A 980 storm is a Cat 2 at best. In fact, Gabrielle 2001 at FL landfall had a 980 pressure but was a 70mph TS. It would have to be the greatest pressure gradient of all time to produce those 150mph winds with that high a pressure.

[Hurricaneman]

on fox35 there was a guy in new Smyrna beach that said hes staying because he stayed for the 2004 hurricanes, thats the thinking that someone gets killed

[WGV]

http://www.sjcfl.us

Mandatory evacuation for St. Augustine - just released

[MaineWeatherNut]

I'm trying to figure why Matt regained strength after Cuba, only to weaken yet again and..I don't think he is getting.. his act together yet?

He VERY much is getting his act together just hasn't really started strengthening again yet. He is getting ready to ramp up pretty quickly over night though. Once that is cleared out again which it's well on it's way to do so he should ramp very quickly.

In other words, Matthew is poised. Very poised!

I would say it's more like he's revving his engine impatiently waiting for the flag to drop... Once the flag does drop though watch out!

[tigerz3030]

Just announced - MANDATORY evacuations for the entire city of St. Augustine

That's the city correct? Not the county residents? I live in WGV by the way