ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[terrapintransit]

Just as I suspected. Watch those models keep bending back north after NC like they were before the loop theory..

00z Guidance...

[SouthDadeFish]

Either the HRRR knows something a lot of people don't, or it's just wrong. I really hope it's the second option (much more likely). (Mods from what I understand, this is a free to access portion of WxBell)

[Tuffy]

GFDL weakens Matthew substantially by the time it gets up this way...what is it seeing?

Land interaction...

Increasing Shear......

[ZX12R]

Just as I suspected. Watch those models keep bending back north after NC like they were before the loop theory..

00z Guidance...

Do those tracks show NHC track east of consensus? Or right on top center?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Never have heard of this model is it one to take serious?

[ronjon]

it's a little fast..by about 9 hrs compared to the globals. Track looks a little south but not unreasonable.

[dukeblue219]

GFDL weakens Matthew substantially by the time it gets up this way...what is it seeing?

Land interaction...

Increasing Shear......

The GFDL runs the storm up Florida and through GA and SC while staying over land. Land interaction is presumably most of the difference between its strength and the HWRF over the same period.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Cat5 outliner was run is on the chart.

[bg1]

Do those tracks show NHC track east of consensus? Or right on top center?

Looks like no deviation thru 48 hours, SE of consensus at 72 and then S afterwards.

[ZX12R]

Do those tracks show NHC track east of consensus? Or right on top center?

Looks like no deviation thru 48 hours, SE of consensus at 72 and then S afterwards.

Thank you, bg1. Much appreciated.

[DIwestender]

Shouldn't the GFS be running now?

[tgenius]

Shouldn't the GFS be running now?

Starts about 11:25ish.

[RL3AO]

Either the HRRR knows something a lot of people don't, or it's just wrong. I really hope it's the second option (much more likely). (Mods from what I understand, this is a free to access portion of WxBell)

If it's right, it would be the biggest forecasting disaster in the modern era of meteorology. That's why I'm sure it's wrong. (Famous last words)

[South Texas Storms]

Either the HRRR knows something a lot of people don't, or it's just wrong. I really hope it's the second option (much more likely). (Mods from what I understand, this is a free to access portion of WxBell)

If it's right, it would be the biggest forecasting disaster in the modern era of meteorology. That's why I'm sure it's wrong. (Famous last words)

I wouldn't be so sure it's wrong. It actually did very well forecasting the landfall spot of Hermine in the Florida Panhandle this year. This will be another good test case for it.

[tgenius]

Either the HRRR knows something a lot of people don't, or it's just wrong. I really hope it's the second option (much more likely). (Mods from what I understand, this is a free to access portion of WxBell)

If it's right, it would be the biggest forecasting disaster in the modern era of meteorology. That's why I'm sure it's wrong. (Famous last words)

If that really were to play out dade county would almost basically be caught with pants down. I don't think it will, and I pray it doesn't. :/

[La Sirena]

Either the HRRR knows something a lot of people don't, or it's just wrong. I really hope it's the second option (much more likely). (Mods from what I understand, this is a free to access portion of WxBell)

If it's right, it would be the biggest forecasting disaster in the modern era of meteorology. That's why I'm sure it's wrong. (Famous last words)

If that really were to play out dade county would almost basically be caught with pants down. I don't think it will, and I pray it doesn't. :/

That's been my biggest fear with these models all along.

[Soonercane]

Wow that HRRR run scares me a lot, but I don't know if it is a good model for these things.

[RL3AO]

Wow that HRRR run scares me a lot, but I don't know if it is a good model for these things.

We've never had the HRRR around with an approaching major hurricane. However, it's not specifically designed for tropical cyclones. It's also a state of the art high-resolution model...so.

[terstorm1012]

I like the HRRR but I think it's a bit too far west. It has Matthew moving over Andros and it looks like , to me the eye will move just to the east of Andros or even closer to Nassau. Since I found out it runs every hour I'll probably end up staying up too late looking at its output

[Blinhart]

Either the HRRR knows something a lot of people don't, or it's just wrong. I really hope it's the second option (much more likely). (Mods from what I understand, this is a free to access portion of WxBell)

If it's right, it would be the biggest forecasting disaster in the modern era of meteorology. That's why I'm sure it's wrong. (Famous last words)

If that really were to play out dade county would almost basically be caught with pants down. I don't think it will, and I pray it doesn't. :/

And unfortunately wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the last time.