ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Vdogg
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7241 Postby Vdogg » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:39 pm

jason1912 wrote:GFS a bit east.

Euro trended east at 12z. Gfs will probably trend north on this one just like euro.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7242 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:39 pm

30 hrs... @10 miles E of Stuart Florida...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7243 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:40 pm

Blown Away wrote:30 hrs... @10 miles E of Stuart Florida...


Canaveral hit at 36 looks like. East by a smidge of 18z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7244 Postby jhpigott » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:41 pm

Anyone have a link to the RPM model? Read elsewhere current RPM partially brings eye on to coast at WPB and rides it all the way up the coasy to JAX
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7245 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:43 pm

42 hours... Riding the coast up to Daytona... Ridge a bit stronger the whole time... Only <10 miles difference from 18z just a bit slower...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7246 Postby jhpigott » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:43 pm

Blown Away wrote:30 hrs... @10 miles E of Stuart Florida...


That would likely put the western eyewall on northern Palm Beach County wouldn't it?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7247 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:45 pm

Blown Away wrote:30 hrs... @10 miles E of Stuart Florida...


Looks like eyewall onshore from roughly JuPiter to Canaveral. GFS has held firm on that exact location for last 6-8 runs. Rough night coming here in County for us next 36hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7248 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:46 pm

54 hours... nearly identical. Is it speeding up a bit?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7249 Postby Lifeless » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:46 pm

48hs again slightly SE compared to the 18z. Surprising to me considering the ridge at least appears stronger
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7250 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:49 pm

right on the track I issued a couple of hours ago
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7251 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:51 pm

Image

60 hours... wow.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7252 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:54 pm

A bit closer to SC at 66.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7253 Postby Blinhart » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:54 pm

bg1 wrote:Image

60 hours... wow.


Looks a lot stronger.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7254 Postby ALhurricane » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:55 pm

Alyono wrote:right on the track I issued a couple of hours ago


The equal opportunity eyewall thrashing track?

It's really going to come down to last minute wobbles whether this stays just offshore or rides just inland. Given the presentation of the ridge, I would lean just inland.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7255 Postby SouthernBreeze » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:56 pm

still following SC coast @ 78hrs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7256 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:57 pm

72 hrs or 3 days out:
Image

Once again, almost identical.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7257 Postby Vdogg » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:57 pm

Fujiwhara effect at 78. Looks like it's trying to swing Nicole in.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7258 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:59 pm

At 84 hours I notice Nicole is a lot farther west. I wonder if they're close enough to interact.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7259 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:04 pm

Moving S at 96 bringing Nicole NW.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7260 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:06 pm

I am not sure but it seems like the NAM has the upper air pattern a bit better defined from what I see around the soundings. I wonder what GFS ensembles will look like. Likely a bit slower and maybe S with a few members more west. Heights from JAX to Texas also on the rise, maybe a bridge of the ridge may slow it down and maybe take it slightly west.

Its difficult to say. But I always believe slower means less west as well.
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