ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[bg1]

From 66 - 126 (or about 3 - 5 days out):


A weaker Matt gets tired of dancing with Nicole and tries to break away, but takes her west with him as he makes landfall a second time.

[Blinhart]

From 66 - 126 (or about 3 - 5 days out):


A weaker Matt gets tired of dancing with Nicole and tries to break away, but takes her west with him as he makes landfall a second time.

And continues into the hot tub of the GoM, that could be a serious problem.

[Alyono]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2016 0 23.1N 76.1W 983 52
1200UTC 06.10.2016 12 24.7N 77.6W 980 55
0000UTC 07.10.2016 24 26.4N 79.4W 974 58
1200UTC 07.10.2016 36 28.6N 80.4W 972 56
0000UTC 08.10.2016 48 30.5N 80.9W 971 58
1200UTC 08.10.2016 60 32.4N 80.2W 969 59
0000UTC 09.10.2016 72 33.1N 78.0W 984 58
1200UTC 09.10.2016 84 33.9N 75.9W 989 55
0000UTC 10.10.2016 96 33.3N 73.2W 995 53
1200UTC 10.10.2016 108 32.9N 71.8W 1000 48
0000UTC 11.10.2016 120 CEASED TRACKING

[bg1]

144 - 162: Heading SW toward the Yucatan at a good clip! Three runs in a row now the GFS has shown it getting near the Yucatan/Cuba area.

[Bocadude85]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2016 0 23.1N 76.1W 983 52
1200UTC 06.10.2016 12 24.7N 77.6W 980 55
0000UTC 07.10.2016 24 26.4N 79.4W 974 58
1200UTC 07.10.2016 36 28.6N 80.4W 972 56
0000UTC 08.10.2016 48 30.5N 80.9W 971 58
1200UTC 08.10.2016 60 32.4N 80.2W 969 59
0000UTC 09.10.2016 72 33.1N 78.0W 984 58
1200UTC 09.10.2016 84 33.9N 75.9W 989 55
0000UTC 10.10.2016 96 33.3N 73.2W 995 53
1200UTC 10.10.2016 108 32.9N 71.8W 1000 48
0000UTC 11.10.2016 120 CEASED TRACKING

That's a west shift in the short term..this is going to be real close to Palm Beach County

[SouthFloridawx]

Nothing say''s I don't care anymore like, "ceased tracking".

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2016
HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2016 0 23.1N 76.1W 983 52
1200UTC 06.10.2016 12 24.7N 77.6W 980 55
0000UTC 07.10.2016 24 26.4N 79.4W 974 58
1200UTC 07.10.2016 36 28.6N 80.4W 972 56
0000UTC 08.10.2016 48 30.5N 80.9W 971 58
1200UTC 08.10.2016 60 32.4N 80.2W 969 59
0000UTC 09.10.2016 72 33.1N 78.0W 984 58
1200UTC 09.10.2016 84 33.9N 75.9W 989 55
0000UTC 10.10.2016 96 33.3N 73.2W 995 53
1200UTC 10.10.2016 108 32.9N 71.8W 1000 48
0000UTC 11.10.2016 120 CEASED TRACKING

[SouthernBreeze]

and 33.1N 78.0W pretty darn close to SC/NC line. hoping it weakens by then!

[Steve]

NAM low res outputs sort of jog north when they get toward South Florida with the worst of the weather north of Metro Miami. However, the 4K specifically brings the front side and worst weather since probably Cuba to South Carolina. I wouldn't call it the Right Front Quadrant but maybe the North 1/2.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=200

[SouthernBreeze]

WOW! although NAM not the most reliable?

[Steve]

WOW! although NAM not the most reliable?

The lower resolutions pick up pretty good upper features in the subtropics and temperate regions. The 4K usually deviates from the 32 and whatever the other resolution Levi (c) has on his site a little, but since it's a much tighter resolution, I'll watch it sometimes. The radar products can be good or they can be sketchy. But seeing as where you live, that looks like a decent pounding, and since the storm doesn't really hook east but up the coast, there's a shot for some prolonged damaging winds and rainfall from NE GA all the way across coastal South Carolina if it's even close to being right. You have a couple of days to react still, but I'd be at the store about 6am tomorrow getting everything I needed before you have to wait in lines and **** runs out.

[Alyono]

Canadian model has a Florida landfall

[Steve]

Also, GFS buries remnants of Matthew down in the Bay of Campeche at least by 222 hours (9 1/2 days). You'd have to think, if you've been thinking like me, that if it can hit that part of the 1995 analog, maybe something comes back up NE to hit Alabama or Florida late in the season to usher in Fall 2016 to the Southeast. Not sure this would completely degenerate unless upper conditions won't allow for continued maintenance or else intensification if it came back north across the Loop Current (ala Opal).

I'm curious to see what the rest of the run does, but I suspect it probably continues to weaken it or just forces it down into Mexico.

[Bocadude85]

Through 21 hours the 0z HWRF is west of the 18Z just offshore Palm Beach

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is UKMET threatening to Wilmington area this run?

[Steve]

Canadian model has a Florida landfall

It elongates on Pass #2 and spits out a piece that circles back around and hits between Port Charlotte or Ft. Meyers while the main energy reverses and goes back out to sea.

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF now shows landfall in Northern Palm Beach

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100600&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Steve]

0z HWRF now shows landfall in Northern Palm Beach

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100600&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

Nevermind. That's a NW heading. Looks pretty destructive in at 940ish.

[SouthFloridawx]

From 66 - 126 (or about 3 - 5 days out):


A weaker Matt gets tired of dancing with Nicole and tries to break away, but takes her west with him as he makes landfall a second time.

That's what she said.

[fci]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2016 0 23.1N 76.1W 983 52
1200UTC 06.10.2016 12 24.7N 77.6W 980 55
0000UTC 07.10.2016 24 26.4N 79.4W 974 58
1200UTC 07.10.2016 36 28.6N 80.4W 972 56
0000UTC 08.10.2016 48 30.5N 80.9W 971 58
1200UTC 08.10.2016 60 32.4N 80.2W 969 59
0000UTC 09.10.2016 72 33.1N 78.0W 984 58
1200UTC 09.10.2016 84 33.9N 75.9W 989 55
0000UTC 10.10.2016 96 33.3N 73.2W 995 53
1200UTC 10.10.2016 108 32.9N 71.8W 1000 48
0000UTC 11.10.2016 120 CEASED TRACKING

That's a west shift in the short term..this is going to be real close to Palm Beach County

40 from me in Lake Worth

[Steve]

HWRF looks to landfall approximately between PSL and Vero Beach 30 hours from 00z (8pm Eastern time). That's early morning Friday. If it's right, you better be ready. It comes off the coast way south of Jacksonville, but still pretty much is hugging the coast of SC through 66 hours and then splits off a little east near the SC/NC border at 69 hours for now.