Texas Fall-2016

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1009 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Made few adjustments to forecast this morning based on satellite
and radar trends which show few clouds at this point inland with a
fair amount of clouds and a few showers offshore. Would expect
cumulus field to develop over next few hours with scattered
showers near the coast. Cant rule out a few rumbles of thunder
this afternoon as well with peak heating. Visible image showing
towering cumulus developing in a coast parallel band over
Brazoria...Galveston and Chambers County. Radar showing hint of
first shower development within that band which should lift inland
through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows scattered showers in the Gulf of Mexico. These
showers could spread inland later today and this afternoon but
overall confidence is low. Moisture will be pushing back into the
area but may be slower to do so. Convective allowing model trends
do not show much convection developing. TAFs are left with no
mention of showers or thunderstorms with the idea that TAFs can be
amended if activity develops inland.

Patchy fog has be affecting a few areas from KCXO to a few
surrounding rural areas. Any fog this morning should be short
lived as winds should increase from the SE and allow for mixing
this morning. With moisture returning there will also be the
chance of MVFR CIGS developing mainly for KCXO/KUTS/KCLL tomorrow
morning with scattered low ceilings to the south.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 91 72 90 / 10 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 89 74 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 79 87 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...18

[Ralph's Weather]

I have had a low in the 50s for 8 straight days. Hope we don't see any more extended streaks of warmer lows.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...Main concerns this morning will be a
few passing showers with most of these areas on the edge of
MVFR/IFR CIGS to the north. Deep moisture from the Gulf should
develop over SE TX to allow for showers to develop. For now think
any TSRA will be isolated and will amend TAF accordingly as
conditions warrant. MVFR CIGS will be possible tomorrow morning
but think model guidance is too aggressive with IFR CIGS. TAFs
will at least mention scattered cloud decks but keep VFR.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...Mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS this morning as
combination of low stratus and fog develop. Think these conditions
will persist the next 2-3 hrs before winds begin to mix boundary
layer. With deep moisture from the Gulf developing over the area,
think there will be a small chance of a few showers for KCXO/KUTS
but shower activity likely stay east of KCLL. It will be possible
for an isolated TSRA but not confident enough to mention in TAFs
so will amend as necessary. Conditions look favorable for more
IFR/MVFR CIGS tomorrow morning so will mention at least MVFR
ceilings.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...
Diffluent upper flow today over Southeast Texas will give way to a
building upper ridge by Friday as an upper trough over the northern
plains moves into the Great Lakes. As the upper ridge begins to build
overhead, a cold front will move across Southeast Texas late Friday
and off the coast by early Saturday morning. A model consensus shows
a stronger ridge in place overhead through the weekend and into
Monday. By Wednesday of next week a mainly dry shortwave trough will
dig southward into Texas as it moves across the Southern Plains.

40

SHORT TERM...
Surface analysis this morning shows a frontal boundary across the
plains with weak low pressure over SW Oklahoma. High pressure
stretched from the NE U.S. through the Appalachians and SE U.S. into
Texas. This has allowed for mainly southeast winds across the region
with low level moisture returning to the area. Area radar show a few
showers off the Sabine Pass and the adjacent coastal waters of the
Gulf. Showers continue to develop off the Upper Texas Coast and may
push inland later this morning. IR satellite imagery shows some
cloud cover expanding over the area and causing MVFR/IFR CIGS to
develop at a few of the area terminals such as KCXO/KUTS. Upper
level analysis shows a broad trough over the western two thirds of
the U.S. or basically west of the Mississippi River. Two upper lows
were over the N Plains and the Pacific NW.

Today and tonight the upper low over the N Plains should rotate into
Canada while the Pacific NW system drops into the C Rockies. This
will continue to allow for southerly low level flow off the Gulf and
support shower activity today across SE Texas. SPC Mesoanalysis has
a plume of higher precipitable water values over the Gulf and this
should spread over the region today. The forecast will keep mainly
20 PoPs but there could be some pockets of higher rain chances
depending upon if any convection clusters together. High
temperatures today should again reach around 89-91F and head back to
low temperatures in the low 70s again tomorrow.

Overpeck

LONG TERM...
Main issues are temperatures and rain chances. Model consensus
still have POPS on the low side with best chances Thursday
afternoon. The models show the best moisture axis over the western
half of the forecast area on Thursday morning drying out as it moves
westward Thursday afternoon. The frontal passage looks dry as
subsidence will begin early on Friday from the building upper level
ridge. A drier airmass will the persist overhead through the first of
next week.

Daytime highs near 90 will be common again today and Thursday.
Subsidence from the upper level high pressure ridge will help
overcome the cooler air behind the front and may keep temperatures
slightly warmer than currently forecasted over the weekend. Still
expecting seasonably cooler than normal highs for most locations for
the start of the new week on Sunday. As the upper level shortwave
trough moves toward the state, a warmup should begin on Tuesday with
daytime highs warming to near or above normal.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 91 69 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 91 74 91 70 92 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 87 77 89 / 20 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...39

[Ntxw]

AO tanking for October. Doesn't mean we'll get cold as it could dump in Asia but it has significant implications for SAI. 2014 was the last year with a big tank in October. It correlates with rapid snow expansion in the middle latitudes.

[Tireman4]

I will take it. Give me highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's....perfect running weather sir...

I have a race I am targeting for...Run Through The Woodlands...it is a 5 miler...if I can hit my tangents and pace goals...I could do well ( read sub 34.. )

[TeamPlayersBlue]

AO tanking for October. Doesn't mean we'll get cold as it could dump in Asia but it has significant implications for SAI. 2014 was the last year with a big tank in October. It correlates with rapid snow expansion in the middle latitudes.

I remember that year as always cool and dreary. I was ok with it. Dont really remember about the snow threats we had from 14-15 yeah.

[Ntxw]

2014 if you remember in November had the Nuri blast and 2013 at the end of Nov had cross polar flow. With the aligning of the SST's and large scale wave pattern reflecting it, I would hedge bets we see our first winter threat rumbles come Nov which really is only about a month away. When it flips, its going to flip hard. I would keep eyes on Alaska/NW Canada later this month and see what kind of air mass builds.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah Sept and Oct were warm for '13 as well which is a similar pattern. November cool down would be nice!

[Brent]

2014 if you remember in November had the Nuri blast and 2013 at the end of Nov had cross polar flow. With the aligning of the SST's and large scale wave pattern reflecting it, I would hedge bets we see our first winter threat rumbles come Nov which really is only about a month away. When it flips, its going to flip hard. I would keep eyes on Alaska/NW Canada later this month and see what kind of air mass builds.

oh I'm so ready...

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like Matthew will do a loop-de-loop down off the southeast coast through Monday, before moving into the southern GOM and dissipating. That high pressure to its north is keeping it from moving north and east. Looks like there could be quite a bit of beach erosion from this storm on the southeast coast. Thoughts and prayers for those down in Haiti, Cuba, and the DR.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Huge snowstorm in canada is laying down a decent sized snow pack.

[Texas Snowman]

Even if you don't participate in tropical weather discussions, I would encourage folks to take a visit to the Hurricane Matthew threads (Discussion and Models).

Why? To read and learn. There are some fascinating discussions taking place over there and I'm learning a lot from some great weather minds.

As a side note, watching Matthew's convection ramp up this afternoon and looking at the recent model trends, I have the sinking feeling that we could potentially be watching something historic taking place. I sure hope not.

[JDawg512]

Apart from the benign pattern we are experiencing here in Texas, I figured this thread was quiet because all eyes are on Mathew. I know I've been following those threads.

If we don't see any significant rain over the next two weeks, then I would expect the rest of the Autumn to be dry which is not what I want. We need better moisture return and it just doesn't look like we are going to get it.

[dhweather]

Even if you don't participate in tropical weather discussions, I would encourage folks to take a visit to the Hurricane Matthew threads (Discussion and Models).

Why? To read and learn. There are some fascinating discussions taking place over there and I'm learning a lot from some great weather minds.

As a side note, watching Matthew's convection ramp up this afternoon and looking at the recent model trends, I have the sinking feeling that we could potentially be watching something historic taking place. I sure hope not.

Bi-polar at times in talking tropics:

CAT 5!!!

Pressure has not dropped....

No recon data supports intensification....

Its undergoing rapid intensification!!!

[gboudx]

Even if you don't participate in tropical weather discussions, I would encourage folks to take a visit to the Hurricane Matthew threads (Discussion and Models).

Why? To read and learn. There are some fascinating discussions taking place over there and I'm learning a lot from some great weather minds.

As a side note, watching Matthew's convection ramp up this afternoon and looking at the recent model trends, I have the sinking feeling that we could potentially be watching something historic taking place. I sure hope not.

Bi-polar at times in talking tropics:

CAT 5!!!

Pressure has not dropped....

No recon data supports intensification....

Its undergoing rapid intensification!!!

I saw it wobble due south!

[Ntxw]

It's even more of a challenge moderating it. You want all to be able to opinion but there is a fine line especially with so much at stake and sound advice needed. Which makes me appreciate the mannerism and productive posters we have in the Texas threads. It's a really good community

[Brent]

I grew up in Alabama so I've actually been through a couple hurricanes directly(Opal and Ivan the two big ones), and impacts from several others, and my interest has been going for 20+ years now... that was the whole reason I initially came to storm2k, so yeah, I've been following Matthew almost obsessively for days. It's been a long time since I've seen one like this so close to the US

[JDawg512]

It's even more of a challenge moderating it. You want all to be able to opinion but there is a fine line especially with so much at stake and sound advice needed. Which makes me appreciate the mannerism and productive posters we have in the Texas threads. It's a really good community

I agree...

I'm monitoring that thread right now but there is no reason for me to post. It's getting pretty testy over there which is understandable for people that actually live in the storm's path who are stressed enough as it is. Personally for me, unless I'm being directly effected by the storm, it's best simply to be an observer. Let those who are experienced with hurricanes, pro Mets and moderators post during this very critical time.


Over in our part of the woods, seeing scattered showers across the coastal plains. Unfortunately they don't look like they will end up making it to the I-35 coridoor. Still searching for our next significant rain event...

[weatherdude1108]

It's even more of a challenge moderating it. You want all to be able to opinion but there is a fine line especially with so much at stake and sound advice needed. Which makes me appreciate the mannerism and productive posters we have in the Texas threads. It's a really good community

I agree...

I'm monitoring that thread right now but there is no reason for me to post. It's getting pretty testy over there which is understandable for people that actually live in the storm's path who are stressed enough as it is. Personally for me, unless I'm being directly effected by the storm, it's best simply to be an observer. Let those who are experienced with hurricanes, pro Mets and moderators post during this very critical time.


Over in our part of the woods, seeing scattered showers across the coastal plains. Unfortunately they don't look like they will end up making it to the I-35 coridoor. Still searching for our next significant rain event...

Unfortunately, I wish I had better news to report on the significant rain forecast.
I am thankful that our lakes are full, even AFTER Summer. Those mid to late August rains and cool temperatures helped us out. I miss those days. Faucet shut off again, with dry fronts and no moisture to work with.

I feel like when I was growing up here, we didn't have these weeks and month-long stretches without even light rains or even sprinkles. Now it seems to be the norm for it to rain several inches, then the faucet shuts off for a few weeks/month or so, with some dew drops, if that. I miss the days of cooler temperatures and regular showers.

[JDawg512]

It has changed. Born and raised here in Austin and we did not see these kinds of quick monthly extremes from wet to dry, wet to dry in the 80s and 90s. Droughts were not as long or as pronounced and rainfall distribution was more consistent.

Heck I remember summers as a kid riding my bike trying to outrun downpours from afternoon and evening thundershowers. One time I was a couple of blocks from my house and could see a wall of rain moving up the street but not a drop where I was. Jumped on my bike and stayed just in front of it until I got into my yard at which point I ended up getting soaked. That memory particularly sticks out because of how heavy the rain was with almost no sprinkles ahead of the edge so from my perspective, it was litterally like watching a wall of liquid.
There are many memories of playing in the rain during the summer. There was always at least a 20% chance of showers each day. Used to watch the Seabreeze make it to Austin almost daily. Nowadays we are lucky if it brings rain a handful of times during the summer.

Well it looks like October will be dry if not bone dry. I'm hoping the winter shapes up differently considering that we are not in an actual La Niña albiet cool ENSO Neutral. One thing seems apparent in that we have been in a pretty consistent annual pattern where we may see a month or possibly 2 months of very wet weather followed by at least 2 months of very dry weather. With the likelihood of a +PDO continuing, was hoping for at least some consistent chances for rain but that hasn't happened yet.