ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7861 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:53 am

seems more like wobbles if anything.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7862 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:59 am

Hammy wrote:Inner core breaking down again as per satellite and it looks like it's moving NNW as well and may miss the forecast point to the east by a good amount. I'm still wondering if this may just keep moving NNW given the cloud flow, not getting any closer than Floyd in 1999 did.


It's NW from what I see. Floyd's closest approach to FL was 120 mi. Looks very likely Matthew will get closer based on the models. Even HWRF is closer.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7863 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:03 am

Has roughly less than 17 hours before it makes its closest approach to Broward.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7864 Postby Johnny77 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:05 am

Current West Palm Beach winds:
NE at 20 mph, gusting to 24 mph
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7865 Postby Johnny77 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:08 am

Matthew just went through a cycle of strengthening his southwest side. Intensification should continue on Thursday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7866 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:12 am

Johnny77 wrote:Matthew just went through a cycle of strengthening his southwest side. Intensification should continue on Thursday.


I'm sure he's still strengthening. Recon will confirm...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7867 Postby StarmanHDB » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:22 am

Did I just see the Euro calls for a 939mb storm 20 miles off Palm Beach by 11pm tonight?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7868 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:27 am

still a few kinks to work out but the inner core is established. now it come down to thermodynamics fluctuations. could struggle or make a run for high cat 4. these things are still out of out realm of prediction. too many variables.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7869 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:31 am

TS force in Nassau. Could be some wild footage there in a couple hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7870 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:32 am

Image
I would estimate on this satpic pineye @130kts.
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7871 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:37 am

luckily the overall size of the hurricane did not gor w all that large after cuba.. wind field could have been very large.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7872 Postby StarmanHDB » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:44 am

Aric Dunn wrote:still a few kinks to work out but the inner core is established.


Well, I'm glad that he's getting his act together, but is Florida really the place for Matthew to work out his kinks? Who needs that trainwreck in their town? :roll:

Yes, that was a weak attempt at hurricane humor from Fort Lauderdale at this wee hour of the watch. Hope all stay safe.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7873 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:51 am

Recon is now down to operational Altitude. Should have a center fix in half an hour to an hour I would say.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7874 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:01 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7875 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:04 am

Is that first plane headed for Nicole? It just went around Matthew's southern end and is still going east well away from it now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7876 Postby bob rulz » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:09 am

I thought that nobody I knew was in the path of this storm, but I just found out one of my friends from a forum lives on Merritt Island and he says he cannot evacuate. Needless to say I am very worried for him. Not sure what kind of preparations he's done, but hopefully he's as prepared as he can be.

I have school in the morning but I'm surely going to stay up for one more recon pass...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7877 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:09 am

Right now Matt has roughly the same size wind field that Hermine had at landfall. Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7878 Postby Johnny77 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:09 am

No, that plane's mission is just for Matthew. Should be flying back west soon to get a center/pressure fix.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7879 Postby marionstorm » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:14 am

Hammy wrote:Is that first plane headed for Nicole? It just went around Matthew's southern end and is still going east well away from it now.


I think they are being polite and letting the slower plane catch up and fix the center first. No idea why.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7880 Postby GulfHills » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:17 am

We're in Grand Island, Fl, between Eustis and Leesburg. Going to have to leave our mobile home to stay with our daughter. She's in a 3rd floor brick apartment, would that be safe enough?
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